LDPE Recent Commodity Market Intelligence Report

I. Price Trends

* Recent Price Fluctuations:
- On May 21, 2026, the LDPE reference price stood at RMB 11,183.33 per metric ton, representing a 3.03% decline compared to RMB 11,533.33 per metric ton on May 1.
- On May 20, the LDPE reference price was RMB 11,216.67 per metric ton, down 2.75% from May 1.
- On May 19, the LDPE reference price was RMB 11,283.33 per metric ton, down 2.17% from May 1.
- On May 18, the LDPE reference price was RMB 11,383.33 per metric ton, down 1.3% from May 1.
- On May 15, the LDPE reference price was RMB 11,300.00 per metric ton, down 2.02% from May 1.
- On May 14, the LDPE reference price was RMB 11,366.67 per metric ton, down 1.45% from May 1.
- On May 13, the LDPE reference price was RMB 11,400.00 per metric ton, down 1.16% from May 1.
- On May 12, the LDPE reference price was RMB 11,433.33 per metric ton, down 0.87% from May 1.
- On May 11, the LDPE reference price was RMB 11,450.00 per metric ton, down 0.72% from May 1.
- On May 8, the LDPE reference price was RMB 11,566.67 per metric ton, up 0.29% from May 1.

* Regional Price Disparities:
- Prices in the Tianjin market have undergone adjustments—for example, Daqing Petrochemical’s LDPE film grades: 2420D at RMB 12,100 per metric ton and 2426H at RMB 11,450 per metric ton.

II. Supply and Demand Dynamics

* Supply Situation:
- Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 450,000-ton-per-year full-density polyethylene (PE) unit was scheduled for planned shutdown on May 8, 2026, with restart expected on May 27. This temporary halt will reduce HDPE and LLDPE supply, exerting only limited direct impact on LDPE supply; however, the broader PE supply tightening outlook provides modest supportive pressure on LDPE spot prices.
- PE unit operations at Maoming Petrochemical, Hainan Refining & Chemical, and other enterprises also influence overall supply, though their specific impacts on LDPE require further monitoring.

* Demand Situation:
- LDPE demand remains stable, with sustained growth observed across traditional end-use sectors including packaging materials, agricultural films, and wire & cable applications.
- Emerging applications—such as biodegradable plastic products—are gaining traction, delivering positive incremental demand for LDPE.

III. Import and Export Trends

* Imports:
- China’s PE import volume declined significantly in April 2026, potentially exerting downward pressure on domestic LDPE supply.
- The Chinese LDPE market remains highly dependent on imported feedstock; therefore, fluctuations in import volumes directly affect domestic market pricing.

* Exports:
- In April 2026, China’s PE export volume surged both year-on-year and month-on-month, reflecting growing international competitiveness of domestic LDPE products.
- Expansion into overseas markets helps alleviate domestic supply pressure and provides moderate price support for LDPE.

IV. Futures Market

* Futures Prices:
- The main plastics futures contract has recently traded weakly; however, the anticipated supply contraction is expected to provide some floor support to the futures market.
- Specific futures price movements warrant close attention to evolving supply-demand fundamentals and macroeconomic conditions.

V. Analysis and Outlook

* Analysis:
- LDPE prices have exhibited a volatile downward trend recently; nevertheless, supported by supply contraction expectations and robust growth in emerging applications, the downside risk appears limited.
- The overall tightening outlook for PE supply offers modest upside support to LDPE spot prices, while the futures market may see modest upward adjustment driven by related commodity dynamics.

* Outlook:
- In the short term, LDPE prices are likely to continue trending downward with volatility, though the magnitude of decline is expected to gradually narrow.
- As supply constraints become increasingly priced in and demand from emerging applications continues to expand, LDPE prices are projected to stabilize and recover during the medium term.
- Over the long term, LDPE pricing will be influenced by a confluence of factors—including supply-demand balance, macroeconomic conditions, and policy/regulatory developments—requiring continuous monitoring of market developments.