I. Market Dynamics Intelligence
1. Price Trends
- On May 26, 2026, HDPE prices in the Zhengzhou market declined by RMB 30–200/ton, with market participants widely offering discounts to expedite sales. In the Wuhan market, HDPE prices fell by RMB 30–150/ton; sellers actively offered price concessions today, with discount magnitudes varying across the board.
- On May 25, 2026, low-pressure HDPE prices in the Guangzhou market declined; traders followed market trends for sales. The Guangdong 6095 grade was quoted at RMB 9,450/ton.
- In April 2026, HDPE market prices exhibited a pattern of sharp increase followed by correction. At the beginning of the month, escalating Middle East tensions intensified global PE supply shortage expectations, triggering a surge in crude oil prices and providing strong cost support—leading to a significant rally in the HDPE market. On April 8, the U.S. and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire agreement, easing geopolitical tensions and causing crude oil prices to drop sharply; consequently, HDPE prices retreated from their highs. As of April 10, the HDPE price index stood at 9,797—a 4.86% increase from end-March—and ranked first among the three major PE varieties (LLDPE, LDPE, and HDPE) in terms of growth rate. From April 13 to 24, HDPE prices fluctuated but trended downward overall: the reference price was RMB 10,462.50 on April 13 and RMB 10,000.00 on April 24—a decline of 2.08%.

2. Supply Situation
- Domestic Supply: In April 2026, domestic PE facilities progressively entered their spring maintenance period; several units reduced operating loads, including numerous HDPE facilities such as Lanzhou Petrochemical’s new FDPE unit, Sinopec-Hanwha Petrochemical’s Phase II HDPE unit, Qilu Petrochemical’s majority of units, and Sino-British Petrochemical’s HDPE unit—all undergoing shutdowns for maintenance. This resulted in a tangible tightening of domestic HDPE supply. However, as maintenance activities gradually conclude over time, domestic supply may increase accordingly.
- Import Supply: HDPE import dependency continues to decline. In 2025, HDPE imports totaled 5.45 million tons (down 4% year-on-year), reducing import dependency to 29%. In April 2026, HDPE imports amounted to 257,000 tons—down 35.02% month-on-month and down 47.44% year-on-year—reflecting an ongoing decline. Import sources are diversified yet relatively concentrated, primarily comprising the Middle East, North America, and Northeast Asia (e.g., South Korea). However, with continuous domestic R&D progress and output expansion, substitution of mid- and low-end imported materials has become increasingly pronounced, notably compressing imports from South Korea, Iran, and Saudi Arabia.
- Export Situation: In April 2026, HDPE exports reached 269,600 tons—up 185.39% month-on-month and up 449.71% year-on-year—setting a new all-time high. HDPE net exports in April stood at 12,600 tons, turning positive for the first time and breaking the long-standing pattern of import dependency. The substantial export surge effectively alleviated domestic HDPE supply pressure.

3. Demand Situation
- Key downstream sectors for HDPE—including pipe manufacturing and hollow molding—are experiencing seasonal demand recovery. Operating rates for injection molding and hollow molding grades have rebounded, and steady, underlying demand provides pricing support. However, demand for LLDPE downstream agricultural film entered its seasonal tail-off phase in late April, weakening marginal demand support.

4. Inventory Situation
- In April 2026, HDPE inventories continued to decline, primarily driven by recovering downstream demand and tightened supply.

5. Futures Market
- The polyethylene futures market performed generally positively: for instance, the recent settlement and closing prices of contract 2701 rose, accompanied by increased open interest—indicating strong bullish sentiment. Prices are expected to maintain an upward trend, thereby supporting HDPE spot prices. Conversely, some analysts argue that plastic supply is increasing while demand remains weak, forecasting short-term futures price consolidation with a slight bearish bias.

II. Analysis & Assessment
1. Drivers of Price Increases
- Cost Support: Escalating Middle East tensions at the start of the month caused crude oil prices to surge, delivering robust cost support that propelled HDPE price gains.
- Supply Tightening: Concentrated domestic facility maintenance and declining imports led to tangible HDPE supply contraction, fostering a supply-demand imbalance that pushed prices upward.
- Demand Recovery: Seasonal demand rebound in downstream pipe and hollow-molding sectors, coupled with increased steady-state procurement, provided pricing support.

2. Drivers of Price Declines
- Easing Geopolitical Tensions: The U.S.–Iran ceasefire agreement eased regional tensions and triggered a sharp crude oil price decline, weakening cost support and prompting HDPE price corrections from elevated levels.
- Weakening Marginal Demand: The late-April conclusion of the LLDPE downstream agricultural film season reduced demand-side support at the margin, undermining overall market confidence and contributing to HDPE price softening.

III. Outlook
1. Short-Term Outlook
- In the near term, HDPE market prices are likely to exhibit broad-range volatility. Although the U.S.–Iran ceasefire agreement remains fragile, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to face disruptions, sustaining market concerns regarding Middle Eastern crude and related supply stability—rendering cost support unstable. Simultaneously, domestic facility maintenance is gradually concluding, potentially boosting supply. Meanwhile, downstream demand offers only modest support, and buyers remain cautious amid elevated raw material prices, resulting in limited restocking appetite and constrained consumption capacity—leaving demand relatively weak. Collectively, these factors point toward broad-range HDPE price volatility.
2. Long-Term Outlook
- Looking ahead, further expansion of domestic HDPE production capacity and technological upgrades are expected to gradually reduce import dependency. Concurrently, downstream industries—including urbanization and infrastructure development, environmental substitution initiatives, and 'sponge city' construction—will continue driving sustained HDPE demand growth. Nevertheless, challenges such as raw material price volatility and overcapacity in low-end production segments warrant close attention. HDPE market pricing will be shaped by a confluence of cost, supply-demand dynamics, and policy-related factors. Should geopolitical tensions persistently ease and crude oil prices stabilize, while domestic supply increases and demand growth falls short of expectations, HDPE prices may gradually decline. Conversely, renewed escalation in geopolitical tensions leading to a sharp crude oil price surge—or unexpectedly strong downstream demand—could sustain or even accelerate HDPE price increases.