PC (Polycarbonate) Market Intelligence Report (May 27, 2026)

I. Recent Price Trends
1. Spot Prices
- As of May 22, 2026, the average spot price for PC in the East China market stood at RMB 16,366.67 per metric ton, representing a 0.61% increase from the beginning of May and a cumulative rise of 1.45% over the past month.
- Significant regional price differentials exist: In Shanghai, premium-grade grades (e.g., Covestro Makrolon? 1100) are quoted at RMB 19,200/ton, whereas in Hubei, general-purpose grades (e.g., Zhejiang Iron & Steel Dafeng 02-10R) command prices around RMB 19,800/ton—highlighting pronounced demand segmentation across product quality tiers.

2. Raw Material Cost Volatility
- Bisphenol-A (BPA) prices experienced sharp volatility in March 2026, surging from RMB 8,070/ton to RMB 12,360/ton before retreating to RMB 11,520/ton. Although BPA prices have since stabilized, given its >70% weight in PC production costs, it continues to provide strong floor support for PC pricing.

II. Supply-Demand Analysis
1. Supply Side
- Domestic Capacity Expansion: China’s total PC capacity reached 2.36 million tons/year in Q1 2026. The second phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 300,000-ton/year facility commenced operations in early 2026, while Luxi Chemical’s new 200,000-ton/year line is currently ramping up; full-year national capacity is projected to exceed 2.6 million tons/year.
- Divergent Operating Rates: Leading enterprises (e.g., Wanhua Chemical, Covestro), utilizing non-phosgene production technology, maintain utilization rates above 90%. In contrast, smaller-scale facilities (e.g., Luxi Chemical’s legacy 200,000-ton line) operate below 65% capacity due to stringent environmental compliance pressures. Industry concentration (CR3) has risen to 73.6%.
- Declining Import Dependence: PC imports surged 57.58% year-on-year to 83,700 tons in March 2026—primarily driven by domestic BPA shortages prompting downstream buyers to source overseas. Nevertheless, long-term import reliance has declined markedly—from 45% in 2020 to 24.7% in 2026.

2. Demand Side
- New Energy Vehicles (NEVs): NEV production is forecasted to reach 12.5 million units in 2026. PC composites are increasingly adopted in battery trays and headlamp lenses, with application penetration rising to 23.7%, driving an 8.5% YoY growth in automotive-sector PC demand.
- Electronics & Electrical Appliances: Emerging applications—including AI PCs and foldable smartphones—are fueling robust demand for high-flow, flame-retardant PC grades. Procurement volumes by Lenovo, Xiaomi, and other OEMs rose 12% YoY in Q1 2026.
- Healthcare Sector: Certification timelines for medical-grade PC have been shortened by 40%. Purchases by Blue Sail Medical and Weigao Group increased 14.2% YoY, mainly for hemodialysis equipment housings and surgical instruments.
- Construction Sector: The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development’s newly mandated energy-efficiency inspection requirements for PC curtain walls have spurred procurement budget increases of 21.6% YoY among firms such as Jianghe Group and BNBM.

III. Market Drivers
1. Policy Incentives
- The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has included high-performance PC resin in the “Catalogue of Priority New Materials for First-Batch Application Demonstration,” offering 30% insurance premium subsidies and 15% VAT immediate refund-on-collection benefits for initial procurement. In 2025, a total of RMB 472 million in subsidies was disbursed to 12 enterprises—including Wanhua Chemical and Covestro.
- The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) promotes non-phosgene production lines with single-line capacity ≥100,000 tons/year. By end-2025, compliant capacity totaled 1.12 million tons/year, accounting for 47.5% of national PC capacity.

2. Technological Advancement
- Wanhua Chemical has completed ISO 10993-5 biocompatibility certification for its medical-grade PC resin (grade PC-1250), securing entry into Johnson & Johnson and Medtronic supply chains. Covestro’s Changzhou base—a dedicated 200,000-ton/year specialty PC facility—supplies front headlamp lenses exclusively for Tesla Cybertruck, with order lock-in rate reaching 91.3%.
- CATL and Wanhua Chemical jointly developed a PC/polyurethane microfoam battery tray that has passed national standard testing; expected vehicle integration volume in 2026 exceeds 420,000 units.

3. International Trade
- China’s PC exports reached 125,300 tons in Q1 2026, up 48% YoY—mainly destined for the EU (driven by automotive lightweighting demand) and Southeast Asia (electronics contract manufacturing).
- Escalating container freight rates stemming from Middle East geopolitical tensions have been absorbed by strong downstream order rigidity, sustaining export profit margins at 8–10%.

IV. Risks and Challenges
1. Raw Material Price Volatility
- BPA’s price volatility reached 23.8% in 2025—significantly above its historical average of 16.5%. A further sharp spike in 2026 could compress PC producers’ profit margins.
- The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will extend coverage to plastic products in 2026. Export-oriented enterprises face estimated carbon footprint accounting costs of RMB 12,000–18,000 per ton.

2. Technology Gap
- Domestic PC still lags behind international leaders (e.g., Covestro, SABIC) by 2–3 years in critical performance attributes—including Environmental Stress Crack Resistance (ESCR) and long-term thermal aging stability. Certification cycles for high-end optical and medical applications remain 8–12 months longer on average.

V. Outlook (2026–2027)
1. Price Trend
- General-purpose PC prices are expected to fluctuate within RMB 16,000–17,000/ton. Premium specialty grades (e.g., optical-grade, medical-grade) will sustain premium pricing of >60% over commodity benchmarks.
- Should BPA prices fall below RMB 10,000/ton in H2 2026, cost support for PC would weaken, exerting downward pressure on prices.

2. Demand Growth
- NEVs, medical consumables, and 5G-end devices will collectively drive ~6.5% annual PC demand growth. The Chinese PC market size is projected to surpass RMB 28 billion by 2027.
- Export-driven growth will accelerate notably: With BYD, NIO, and others establishing overseas manufacturing plants, the share of PC materials exported for local vehicle assembly is expected to rise from 4.5% in 2025 to 10% in 2027.

3. Industry Structure Evolution
- Concurrent capacity rationalization and technological upgrading will elevate market dominance of integrated players possessing all three key qualifications: non-phosgene production capability, medical-grade certification, and automotive-grade validation (e.g., Wanhua Chemical, Covestro). Industry concentration (CR4) is forecasted to climb from 58.3% in 2025 to 65% in 2027.
- SMEs failing to upgrade production processes or secure long-term downstream partnerships face heightened risk of market exit.