LLDPE Recent Market Intelligence Report

I. Futures Market Dynamics
- **Front-month Contract Price**: On May 26, 2026, the front-month plastic futures contract opened at RMB 7,819.00/ton, with a previous close of RMB 7,814.00/ton.
- **Longer-dated Contract Performance**:
- Plastic Contract 2608 opened at RMB 7,862.00/ton, with a previous close of RMB 7,900.00/ton;
- Plastic Contract 2609 opened at RMB 7,819.00/ton, with a previous close of RMB 7,814.00/ton;
- Plastic Contract 2610 opened at RMB 7,726.00/ton, with a previous close of RMB 7,726.00/ton;
- Plastic Contract 2701 opened at RMB 7,610.00/ton, with a previous close of RMB 7,612.00/ton.
- **Recent Price Volatility**: On May 22, 2026, the front-month plastic futures contract closed at RMB 7,946.00/ton, with an intraday high of RMB 8,008.00/ton and a low of RMB 7,879.00/ton—indicating a narrowing of short-term price volatility range.

II. Spot Market Dynamics
- **Regional Price Differentials**:
- Xiamen Market: Fujian United’s 7042 film-grade material quoted at RMB 8,850/ton (as of May 26), down approximately RMB 50/ton from the beginning of the month;
- East China Region: Daqing Petrochemical’s 7042 base price at RMB 8,350/ton (as of May 20); Jilin Petrochemical’s 7042 quoted at RMB 8,500/ton in Jiangsu (as of May 20);
- South China Region: Guangdong Petrochemical’s 7042N film-grade material quoted at RMB 8,700/ton (as of May 26); CNOOC Shell’s 7042 film-grade material delivered price at RMB 8,750/ton (as of May 26).
- **Price Trend**: From May 1 to May 21, 2026, the LLDPE spot reference price declined gradually from RMB 8,525.00/ton to RMB 8,403.33/ton—a cumulative decline of 1.43%, reflecting a volatile downward trend throughout the month.

III. Supply-Demand Fundamental Analysis
- **Supply Side**:
- Domestic capacity utilization remains high; total design capacity in 2025 was approximately 3.2 million tons/year, with actual output reaching 2.86 million tons—yielding a capacity utilization rate of 89.4%;
- From January to April 2026, export value of plastic products amounted to RMB 253.09 billion (up 4.7% year-on-year), while import volume of primary plastic raw materials declined by 15.3% year-on-year—suggesting some alleviation of domestic supply pressure.
- **Demand Side**: