PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) Resin Market Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast

I. Market Intelligence
(A) Price Trends
- On May 22, 2026, the main futures contract price of PVC exhibited volatility: opening at RMB 4,830.00/ton, closing at RMB 4,843.00/ton, reaching a high of RMB 4,949.00/ton and a low of RMB 4,826.00/ton, with a settlement price of RMB 4,895.00/ton—up by RMB 71.00/ton (a 1.47% increase) from the previous trading day.
- On May 25, the continuous V0 price of PVC stood at RMB 4,892.00/ton, down RMB 3.00/ton (?0.06%) from the prior day; it opened at RMB 4,926.00/ton, reached a high of RMB 4,928.00/ton, and a low of RMB 4,874.00/ton.

(B) Supply Conditions
- Plant Utilization Rate: As of May 24, 2026, the national average PVC plant utilization rate stood at 69.39%, up 0.62 percentage points week-on-week. Although spring maintenance activities peaked in May, further downward adjustment potential for calcium carbide-based production has diminished, resulting in moderate supply improvement overall.
- Plant Maintenance: Spring maintenance was concentrated across enterprises during April–May 2026. Facilities such as Shanghai Chlor-Alkali and Ningbo Zhenyang were undergoing scheduled maintenance. Ethylene-based plants continued operating at reduced loads due to raw material shortages, while multiple calcium carbide-based units were also scheduled for maintenance.

(C) Demand Conditions
- Downstream Utilization Rate: In May 2026, the average downstream utilization rate for PVC declined by 0.78 percentage points to 49.31%, yet remained 0.67 percentage points higher than the same period last year (on a lunar calendar basis). Post-holiday resumption of operations among downstream enterprises fell short of expectations. Recovery in utilization rates across sub-sectors was uneven, and frequent raw material price fluctuations dampened purchasing enthusiasm among end-users—resulting in predominantly just-in-time procurement, with no notable restocking activity observed.
- Downstream Application Segments: The construction sector remains PVC’s largest end-use market. In Q1 2026 (January–March), the real estate industry remained in a readjustment phase: year-on-year declines persisted across investment, sales, new construction starts, construction-in-progress, and completions. Real estate investment growth slowed further, and new construction starts declined year-on-year—directly suppressing downstream demand for pipes and profiles, keeping their utilization rates at low levels. Nevertheless, rising demand from high-end sectors—including medical devices and food packaging—is opening new avenues for industry development.

(D) Inventory Status
- Social inventories remain elevated and de-stocking is proceeding slowly. Following the Spring Festival, PVC inventories surged to historically high levels. As of late April 2026, domestic commercial PVC inventory remained at relatively high levels. De-stocking by petrochemical producers and traders progressed sluggishly, intensifying pressure across the distribution chain. De-stocking stalled in May, with year-on-year inventory levels remaining elevated.

(E) Import/Export Situation
- Export performance was robust in March 2026. With the Strait of Hormuz still closed to navigation and India having temporarily lifted its import tariffs, PVC exports are expected to remain strong.

(F) Cost Structure
- Calcium Carbide-Based Process: Domestic calcium carbide-based PVC production costs are highly correlated with coal and electricity prices, and indirectly influenced by crude oil prices.
- Ethylene-Based Process: Globally, ethylene-based PVC costs are tightly linked to crude oil prices. In March 2026, ongoing Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions pushed up both crude oil and ethylene prices, providing cost support and bullish sentiment for PVC prices. Rising feedstock costs for ethylene-based production have led some manufacturers to reduce output or suspend operations, tightening supply.

II. Analysis and Assessment
(A) Short-Term Market Outlook
- Supply-Demand Dynamics: While supply has contracted somewhat due to maintenance and raw material constraints, overall plant utilization remains at a relatively high level—keeping supply comparatively ample. Conversely, downstream utilization remains subdued, and purchasing enthusiasm is constrained by volatile pricing, leading to predominantly just-in-time procurement and limited restocking. Fundamental supply-demand conditions thus cap upside price potential. However, the near-term inability of ethylene-based production to rebound quickly—combined with the absence of new domestic capacity additions and seasonal spring maintenance—provides critical underlying support.
- Cost and Geopolitical Factors: Cost structures diverge between calcium carbide-based and ethylene-based processes. Escalating Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions influence crude oil prices—and thereby ethylene-based costs. Should conflict intensify or recur, robust cost support would sustain PVC prices within a high-volatility range. Conversely, de-escalation and falling oil prices would likely trigger corresponding price corrections.
- Market Sentiment: Macroeconomic sentiment has softened slightly following diplomatic developments—including high-level visits and the U.S.–Iran memorandum—leading to modest easing in international oil prices. Across China’s broader chemical sector, product performance has become increasingly divergent. Recently, PVC has trended weaker under sentiment-driven pressure, given lackluster fundamentals.

(B) Medium-to-Long-Term Market Outlook
- Overcapacity: China’s PVC industry faces entrenched overcapacity. As of end-March 2026, total domestic capacity reached 29.115 million tons/year, with overall industry utilization stabilizing around 75%. A pronounced mismatch persists between installed capacity and actual demand. Although no new capacity came online in 2026, the structural challenge of excessive capacity base will persist, intensifying competitive pressures.
- Demand Structure Diversification: Gradual, L-shaped recovery in the real estate sector will drive modest growth in core PVC demand. Meanwhile, demand structure divergence will deepen: growth in high-end applications—including medical-grade, food-grade, and high-impact PVC—will become the central engine of industry advancement. Significant import substitution opportunities exist in these premium segments; domestic enterprises are ramping up R&D investment and quality enhancement efforts to gradually displace foreign incumbents and accelerate product portfolio upgrading.
- Industry Consolidation and Pricing Trend: Policy-driven retirement of outdated capacity will progressively optimize supply structure and improve utilization rates—realigning capacity more closely with demand. As obsolete capacity exits the market amid the real estate sector’s L-shaped recovery, the overcapacity situation is expected to gradually ease. Over time, less competitive PVC producers will exit through market forces, elevating industry concentration and supporting a gradual upward shift in the price center.

III. Forecast
(A) Short-Term (1–3 Months)
- The PVC market will exhibit intensified interplay between macroeconomic drivers and fundamental conditions, accompanied by widening price volatility. Prices will likely consolidate in a narrow band near cost-support levels, with the trading range adjusting dynamically to shifts in geopolitical developments and policy expectations. Should geopolitical tensions escalate or policy stimulus exceed expectations, short-term price rallies may occur—but weak demand absorption will limit upside momentum and render such gains vulnerable to reversal. Conversely, geopolitical de-escalation and falling oil prices would likely prompt concurrent price corrections.

(B) Medium-to-Long-Term (6–12 Months)
- The industry will undergo profound structural restructuring under multi-dimensional pressures, shifting strategic emphasis from scale expansion to quality enhancement. Supply-side overcapacity pressure will ease gradually, while industry concentration rises. Demand-side growth in high-end applications will drive product portfolio upgrading. At the pricing level, as the overcapacity landscape gradually improves, the price center is expected to rise steadily.