Ethylene-Vinyl Acetate Copolymer (EVA) Market Intelligence Report

I. Recent Price Trends
- May 2026 Price Volatility:
- May 3: RMB 12,750/ton
- May 10: RMB 13,500/ton
- May 12: RMB 12,350/ton
- May 17: RMB 11,850/ton
- May 19 & 24: RMB 11,050/ton
- Price Trend: Prices surged briefly in early May but then entered a sustained downward trend; by late May, prices stabilized within the range of RMB 11,000–11,850/ton—marking a notable decline compared to the April average (RMB 12,750–13,250/ton).

II. Supply-Demand Analysis
1. Supply Side:
- Capacity Expansion: In 2026, approximately 1.69 million tons/year of new domestic EVA capacity came online (e.g., Yulong Island Refining & Chemical Complex: 300,000 tons/year; Yueyang Hunan Petrochemical: 300,000 tons/year), pushing total national capacity above 5 million tons/year.
- Structural Imbalance:
- Photovoltaic (PV)-Grade EVA: High-end products with VA content ≥28% remain relatively tight, yet domestic technological breakthroughs—including catalyst activity control and reactor temperature field optimization—have raised the self-sufficiency rate to 45%.
- Commodity-Grade Oversupply: Severe overcapacity exists for foaming-grade and film-grade EVA, resulting in highly divergent operating rates (PV-grade production is largely secured via long-term contracts, whereas cable-grade production adjusts flexibly based on spot market demand).

2. Demand Side:
- PV Sector Dominance: Accounts for 50–60% of total EVA demand. With China’s solar module output projected to reach 750 GW in 2026, resin demand will exceed 2.1 million tons. Meanwhile, the penetration rate of N-type cells has surpassed 65%, increasing per-watt EVA consumption by 8–12% and intensifying demand for high-purity, PID-resistant resins.
- Traditional Sectors Soft: Demand from footwear and packaging remains stable but subdued, with only premium footwear (high-rebound, lightweight) and domestic fashion brands driving limited structural upgrades.
- Emerging Applications Show Potential: Incremental demand from new energy vehicles (battery encapsulation, interior components), 3D printing, and smart wearables remains modest in the near term and is unlikely to significantly lift overall demand.

3. Import-Export Dynamics:
- Declining Import Dependence: The import dependency ratio for PV-grade EVA fell from 65% in 2025 to 38%—yet high-end grades still rely heavily on overseas suppliers such as Hanwha Total and Formosa Plastics Group.
- Export Growth: Driven by procurement from Southeast Asian and Indian PV module manufacturers, export volumes are expected to rise further in 2026.

III. Cost and Profitability Analysis
- Raw Material Price Pass-Through:
- Ethylene prices fluctuate with international crude oil (Brent at USD 60–80/barrel); however, state-owned refining & chemical enterprises mitigate cost volatility through internal pipeline direct supply and optimized hydrogen co-production for energy efficiency.
- Vinyl acetate prices face weakening cost support due to expanded coal-chemical capacity.
- Industry Profitability:
- EVA industry gross profit averaged RMB 1,109/ton in H1 2024—a year-on-year decline of 79.22% and a quarter-on-quarter drop of 61.37%. Further capacity releases in 2026 are expected to compress margins even more. The price spread between PV-grade and cable-grade EVA is forecast to narrow from an historical center of RMB 2,000/ton to under RMB 800/ton.

IV. Policy & Industry Developments
- Green & Low-Carbon Policies:
- China’s “Dual Carbon” goals (carbon peak by 2030, carbon neutrality by 2060) accelerate low-carbon transformation across the value chain. EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and similar green trade barriers compel companies to adopt green electricity and CCUS technologies.
- Low-carbon emission products receive a 3–5% price premium in public tenders, incentivizing upstream producers to use green power feedstocks and intelligent process control systems.
- Technological Breakthroughs:
- Domestic catalyst penetration has reached 25%; procurement costs for core rotating equipment have dropped by 50%, pressuring international suppliers to reduce service fees.
- New projects by Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical integrate green electricity and AI-driven intelligent control systems, reinforcing competitive advantages in both cost and sustainability.

V. Price Outlook & Risk Assessment
1. Short-Term Forecast (Q3–Q4 2026):
- Price Range: Impacted by new capacity ramp-ups and seasonal lull in PV installations, prices are likely to trade sideways at lower levels—projected to remain within RMB 10,500–11,500/ton.
- Upside Catalyst: A year-end installation rush or raw material price rebound may trigger modest price recovery—but upside potential remains constrained.

2. Long-Term Outlook (2027–2030):
- Supply-Demand Optimization: After total capacity surpasses 3.5 million tons/year, PV-grade EVA share is expected to exceed 45%, and domestic self-sufficiency could reach >90% before 2030.
- Competitive Focus Shift: Industry competition is transitioning from scale expansion to quality enhancement—with technology barriers, depth of customer integration, and environmental credentials emerging as key differentiators.

3. Risk Assessment:
- Downside Risks: Concentrated new capacity commissioning leading to inventory buildup; global economic slowdown dampening renewable energy investments; persistently low raw material prices eroding cost support.
- Upside Risks: Stronger-than-expected PV policy tailwinds (e.g., direct green electricity access, accelerated deployment of source-grid-load-storage integration); accelerated domestic technological advances enabling faster high-end EVA substitution.