PVC Paste Resin: Recent Market Dynamics Report

I. Price Trends
- Recent Price Fluctuations: From May 14 to May 27, 2026, the national average price of PVC paste resin in mainstream markets exhibited a slight downward trend. Specifically, the average price stood at RMB 6,765.38 per ton on May 14, declining to RMB 6,546.15 per ton by May 27—a cumulative decrease of RMB 219.23 per ton, representing a 3.24% drop.
- Intraday Price Movement: On May 26, sporadic price adjustments occurred in certain regional markets, with prices declining in some areas.

II. Supply and Demand Dynamics
- Supply Situation:
- Capacity and Output: In 2025, China’s total PVC paste resin production capacity rose to 1.635 million tons, with annual output reaching 1.27 million tons—up by 40,000 tons year-on-year. In 2026, market supply continues to expand gradually as newly commissioned capacities come online.
- Plant Operations: Recently, operations at multiple PVC paste resin production facilities remained stable; however, output at several plants declined slightly due to scheduled maintenance or reduced operating loads. Overall, market supply remains ample.
- Demand Situation:
- Downstream Industry Demand: Key downstream applications for PVC paste resin include PVC gloves, automotive interior components, conveyor belts, wallpaper, and tarpaulins. The PVC glove sector maintains steady operating rates; however, intensifying industry competition and shrinking profit margins have led to predominantly demand-driven procurement of paste resin.
- Export Demand: In Q1 2026, PVC paste resin export volumes increased significantly year-on-year, primarily driven by sustained infrastructure development demand across Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Nevertheless, recent international market volatility and evolving trade policies have tempered export demand.

III. Cost Structure and Profitability
- Raw Material Prices: Although calcium carbide prices have fluctuated recently, their overall level remains low. Similarly, ethylene-based PVC prices remain persistently weak, further constraining upward movement in vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) prices—resulting in insufficient cost support for PVC paste resin.
- Enterprise Profitability: Amid declining raw material costs and persistently weak pricing, profit margins for PVC paste resin producers continue to narrow. While some manufacturers are implementing technological upgrades and capacity optimization to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, these measures have yet to fully offset downward market pressure.

Analysis and Assessment

I. Current Supply-Demand Balance
- The current PVC paste resin market exhibits an oversupplied environment with relatively weak demand. Sustained growth in supply—driven by new capacity additions—is not matched by robust downstream demand growth, leading to supply-demand imbalance and continued downward pressure on prices.

II. Cost Support Strength
- Weak pricing for key raw materials—calcium carbide and ethylene—provides inadequate cost support for PVC paste resin. With limited upward impetus from the cost base, market prices lack momentum for recovery.

III. International Trade Environment
- Uncertainties in the global trade environment are exerting tangible pressure on the PVC paste resin export market. Recent international market fluctuations and shifts in trade policy have dampened export demand, further intensifying domestic market competition.

Outlook

I. Price Trend Forecast
- In the near term, PVC paste resin prices are expected to remain in a weak, range-bound trading pattern. On the supply side, ongoing capacity expansion and elevated plant operating rates will sustain abundant market supply. On the demand side, sluggish growth in downstream sectors offers little effective support. Consequently, prices lack upside catalysts and are anticipated to oscillate within the current bottom-tier range.

II. Supply-Demand Outlook
- Over the coming period, the PVC paste resin market is expected to maintain its current oversupplied, demand-deficient equilibrium. As new capacities gradually ramp up and competitive intensity increases, producers will face mounting market pressure. Concurrently, tepid downstream demand growth will continue to weigh on pricing.

III. Long-Term Industry Development Trends
- Looking ahead, the PVC paste resin industry faces mounting pressure to undergo structural transformation and upgrade. Stricter environmental regulations and intensifying market competition necessitate increased R&D investment, product portfolio optimization, and higher proportions of high-end specialty products to meet evolving market challenges. Additionally, actively expanding into international markets and pursuing diversified geographic market strategies represent critical pathways for sustainable industry development.