Phosphoric Monoammonium Market Dynamics Intelligence and Analysis Forecast

I. Current Market Prices
As of May 26, 2026, the benchmark price of phosphoric monoammonium (MAP) stands at RMB 4,260.00 per ton, representing a 0.24% increase from the beginning of the month and positioning it within the annual high range (annual highest price: RMB 4,333.33/ton; annual lowest price: RMB 3,343.33/ton). Regionally, the price for 55% powdered MAP in Hubei Province is quoted at RMB 4,333.33/ton, while Jintou.com reports the national average price for 55% powdered MAP at RMB 4,253.33/ton.

II. Market Dynamics Analysis
(A) Policy Regulation Impacts
1. Supply Assurance and Price Stability Measures: The Central Document No. 1 of 2026 explicitly emphasizes food security objectives, prompting fertilizer enterprises to implement supply assurance and price stabilization policies. Companies including Sichuan Chemical Longma and Yuntianhua have committed to offering MAP at stable, non-premium prices during the spring planting season—effectively capping ex-factory price adjustments at prior levels and curbing excessive upward price momentum.
2. Strengthened Export Controls: A coordinated policy approach—“controlling exports while stabilizing domestic supply”—has been implemented to secure domestic inventory and prevent pre-spring-planting resource outflows. Since December, the export suspension policy has remained continuously effective, alleviating pressure from domestic supply diversion.

(B) Cost-Side Support
1. Elevated Raw Material Prices: Port prices for sulfur remain firm at RMB 4,370/ton; sulfuric acid prices stay resilient amid regional supply imbalances; and phosphate rock supply tightens due to regional transport restrictions. Collectively, primary raw material costs now account for over 40% of total production cost—providing robust floor support.
2. Cost-Pass-Through Mechanism: Although sulfuric acid prices have softened slightly, persistent rigidity in sulfur and phosphate rock pricing sustains elevated comprehensive production costs, compelling manufacturers to maintain firm MAP pricing.

(C) Supply–Demand Dynamics
1. Supply Side: Industry-wide capacity utilization remains steady within the 54%–69% range. Leading enterprises operate at high load rates; however, some small- and medium-sized producers have reduced output or suspended operations due to cost–price inversion. Maintenance shutdowns across four production facilities in April are expected to curb overall output.
2. Demand Side:
– Short-Term Softness: Compound fertilizer industry capacity utilization has declined to 37.75%; manufacturers are prioritizing inventory digestion, resulting in slower procurement pace.
– Medium-Term Support: Spring planting demand has not yet fully materialized; meanwhile, winter reserve stocking in Northeast China is imminent (expected to commence in June), and although summer nitrogen-rich fertilizer production reduces short-term phosphorus demand, long-term underlying demand remains structurally robust.

III. Price Trend Forecast
(A) Short Term (1–2 months)
1. High-Level Consolidation: Strong policy constraints and resilient cost support act as countervailing forces, lowering the likelihood of significant price volatility. Prices are projected to oscillate within the RMB 4,200–4,300/ton range.
2. Regional Divergence: Prices may experience modest downward adjustment in major producing provinces such as Hubei—where supply is relatively abundant—while consumption-intensive regions including East and South China are likely to sustain firmer pricing due to higher logistics costs.

(B) Medium Term (3–6 months)
1. Demand-Driven Uplift: With the commencement of Northeast China’s winter reserve stocking (anticipated in June) and the onset of North China’s summer maize planting season, demand will gradually recover—supporting moderate price appreciation.
2. Cost-Pass-Through Risk: Should international sulfur prices breach RMB 4,500/ton, a new round of cost-driven price increases could emerge—though policy intervention is expected to cap any potential upside.

(C) Long Term (6–12 months)
1. Industrial Capacity Restructuring: Simultaneous commissioning of new capacity and phasing-out of outdated facilities will further consolidate industry concentration, enhancing pricing power for leading enterprises.
2. International Market Linkage: Close attention must be paid to Middle Eastern geopolitical developments impacting global sulfur supply. An international price surge would likely transmit upward pressure on domestic import costs.

IV. Risk Warnings
1. Policy Implementation Deviation: Relaxation of export controls or weakening of supply assurance efforts could trigger domestic supply shortages—and provoke irrational price spikes.
2. Raw Material Price Escalation: If sulfur or phosphate rock prices exceed historical highs, forced production cuts or shutdowns may intensify supply shortages.
3. Demand Underperformance: Prolonged weakness in agricultural commodity prices—or extreme weather negatively affecting sown area—could suppress downstream demand, exerting downward pressure on MAP prices.