D40 Recent Commodity Market Intelligence Analysis

I. Market Price Dynamics
| Date | Price (CNY/ton) | Price Change | Data Source |
|------------|----------------|--------------|-----------------------------------|
| 2026-05-01 | 8,200 | — | Chemicals Channel (Shengyishe) |
| 2026-05-05 | 8,200 | 0% | Chemicals Channel (Shengyishe) |
| 2026-05-15 | 8,150 | -0.61% | Shengyishe Chemicals Bulk Commodity Price Index |
| 2026-05-18 | 8,300 | +1.84% | Shengyishe Chemicals Bulk Commodity Price Index |
| 2026-05-20 | 8,300 | 0% | Listed Company Data (Tonghuashun Financial Network) |
| 2026-05-21 | 8,300 | 0% | Shengyishe |
| 2026-05-22 | 8,600 | +3.61% | Shengyishe |

II. Market Quotation Differential Analysis
1. Regional Price Spread
- Wuhan Hengjiu Chemical Co., Ltd. (Hubei Province) and Nanjing Runsheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd. (Jiangsu Province) both quote at 8,800 CNY/ton—significantly higher than quotations in Shandong Province (Shandong Fushengyong Trading Co., Ltd. at 7,000 CNY/ton; Shandong Jinshengrun Chemical Co., Ltd. at 8,600 CNY/ton), indicating either delayed price transmission or regional supply-demand imbalance between East and Central China.

2. Brand and Quality Premium
- Shandong Jinshengrun Chemical Co., Ltd. quotes 8,600 CNY/ton for its \"99% premium-grade\" product, representing a premium of approximately 300–600 CNY/ton over standard-grade products, reflecting market sensitivity to purity specifications in high-end applications.

III. Price Drivers Analysis
1. Cost-Side Support
- Pure benzene (a primary raw material for D40) prices have increased year-on-year by 36.31%; toluene prices have risen by 23.54%. Rising aromatics feedstock costs are being passed through to the downstream solvent naphtha market.

2. Demand-Side Changes
- Surging optical fiber demand: G.657.A2 fiber prices have surged tenfold year-to-date; data center fiber demand has grown by 32% year-on-year, driving demand for aromatic solvent naphtha as a fiber coating material.
- Memory chip industry linkage: DDR5 prices rebounded 2.8% in May; AI server demand is boosting requirements for high-end electronic chemicals, indirectly stimulating D40 application in cleaning agents.

3. Supply-Side Constraints
- Low-priced supplies from Shandong Province (7,000 CNY/ton) may originate from local refineries producing non-standard products, exhibiting quality discrepancies versus mainstream market offerings—and thereby creating a dual-track pricing structure.

IV. Market Trend Forecast
1. Short-Term (1–2 weeks)
- Price Range: 8,500–8,800 CNY/ton
- Driving Logic: Sustained growth in optical fiber orders (April fiber exports rose 52% month-on-month), coupled with long-term contract orders finalized in the memory chip sector, collectively bolstering demand for premium-grade solvent naphtha.

2. Medium-Term (1–3 months)
- Price Range: 8,300–9,000 CNY/ton
- Risk Factors:
- Disruption from low-priced Shandong supplies (if non-standard product circulation expands);
- Volatility in pure benzene prices (current YoY increase stands at 36.31%, carrying potential for correction);
- Policy changes affecting optical fiber exports (current February export value up 126.8% YoY).

3. Long-Term (6+ months)
- Price Center: 8,500–9,200 CNY/ton
- Supporting Fundamentals:
- Continued global expansion of data center optical fiber demand (forecast to reach 91.6 million fiber-kilometers in 2026);
- Accelerated investment in AI computing infrastructure (upward momentum in memory chip industry sentiment);
- Persistent tightness in aromatics supply (pure benzene plant utilization rates remain at elevated levels).

V. Key Monitoring Indicators
1. Optical Fiber Industry Metrics
- Monthly Chinese optical fiber export volumes and average unit prices;
- Global data center optical fiber demand forecasts.

2. Feedstock Market Dynamics
- Spot prices and inventory levels for pure benzene and toluene;
- Aromatics industry operating rates.

3. Regional Price Spread Alerts
- When the price spread between Shandong and East China exceeds 1,000 CNY/ton, vigilance is warranted regarding cross-regional circulation risks of non-standard products.