Kerosene Market Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast

I. Market Dynamics Intelligence
(A) Domestic Market Price Dynamics
1. National Benchmark Average Prices
- During May 11–19, 2026, the national benchmark average price of kerosene experienced fluctuations. On May 19, it stood at RMB 7,007.75/ton, unchanged from May 18; however, it declined by RMB 158.75/ton (–2.22%) compared to May 17. On May 15, it was RMB 7,166.50/ton, down RMB 17.50/ton (–0.24%) from May 14. On May 14, it rose to RMB 7,184.00/ton (+RMB 20.75/ton, +0.29% vs. May 13). On May 13, it surged to RMB 7,163.25/ton (+RMB 312.50/ton, +4.56% vs. May 12). On May 12, it remained flat at RMB 6,850.75/ton, identical to May 11’s level, which itself rose by RMB 67.50/ton (+1.0%) from May 10.
- During April 15–23, 2026, the national benchmark average price exhibited a volatile downward trend. It opened at RMB 7,227.75/ton on April 15, fell to RMB 7,152.00/ton on April 16 (–1.05%), edged up slightly to RMB 7,157.00/ton on April 17 (+0.07%), then plunged sharply to RMB 6,821.00/ton on April 20 (–4.69%). It further declined to RMB 6,787.00/ton on April 21 (–0.50%), to RMB 6,732.75/ton on April 22 (–0.80%), and to RMB 6,722.75/ton on April 23 (–0.15%).
2. Regional Price Differentials
- The Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta—major aviation fuel distribution hubs—possess marginal pricing power. Wholesale prices in East China and South China are consistently RMB 120–180/ton higher than those in inland regions.
3. Specific Regional and Enterprise Quotations
- On May 24, 2026, Shandong Hanyue Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 8,300/ton for industrial-grade kerosene (produced by Changling Refining & Chemical Company) in Jinan City, Shandong Province; and RMB 8,000/ton for domestically produced kerosene (purity ≥99.9%) in the same location.
- On April 24, 2026, the mainstream quotation for domestic Jet Fuel No. 3 (premium grade) was RMB 8,000/ton. Prices in Shandong Province remained stable at this level for multiple consecutive days; the wholesale price in Zhuhai, Guangdong, was RMB 7,800/ton; and prices across other regions fluctuated between RMB 5,700–7,800/ton.

(B) International Market Price Dynamics
1. Singapore FOB Price
- On March 2, 2026, it fell to USD 117.49/barrel; rebounded to USD 199.64/barrel on March 13; then retreated to USD 157.10/barrel on March 16—reflecting persistent supply disruptions caused by Middle Eastern conflict.
- In April 2026, prices remained highly volatile: on April 3, levels were relatively high, followed by alternating increases and decreases—e.g., between April 4–10, prices ranged from USD 170.93 to USD 216.25/barrel.

(C) Supply-Demand Dynamics
1. Supply Side
- Domestic production has grown steadily: China’s total kerosene output in 2026 reached approximately 12 million tons, an ~8% year-on-year increase. Accelerated commissioning of integrated private-sector refining & petrochemical projects—including Hengli Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical—has raised kerosene yields to 18–22%, enhancing supply capacity for premium aviation fuels. In 2025, domestic jet fuel output exceeded 57 million tons, rising 5.76% YoY.
- Imports: China’s kerosene imports in 2026 totaled ~5 million tons, up ~10% YoY. However, in March 2026, jet fuel exports declined 11.25% MoM (to 1.4517 million tons) and 16.99% YoY; imports were only 10,000 tons, reflecting a domestic resource priority strategy for guaranteed supply.
2. Demand Side
- Aviation turbine fuel (jet fuel) constitutes the core segment of kerosene consumption, accounting for over 75%. In 2025, civil aviation transport turnover reached 1,640.8 billion ton-kilometers (+10.5% YoY); passenger volume hit 770 million person-trips (+5.5% YoY). For 2026, these are projected to rise further to 1,750 billion ton-kilometers and 810 million person-trips. International air passenger volume grew 7.1% YoY in 2025; air cargo demand rose 3.4% overall (with international operations up 4.2% YoY). General aviation flight hours increased from 984,000 hours in 2020 to 1,218,000 hours in 2025 (+23.8%), emerging as a new growth engine for demand.
- Industrial kerosene demand is growing steadily—particularly in coatings, resins, and solvents—but China’s ‘Dual Carbon’ policy promotes substitution in industrial applications, resulting in a 2.3% YoY decline in industrial kerosene demand in 2023.
- Civilian demand remains relatively stable: kerosene retains irreplaceable advantages in remote areas and emergency lighting applications, sustaining steady market demand. In 2026, civilian kerosene consumption is expected to grow ~5% YoY to reach 3 million tons.

II. Analytical Assessment
(A) Drivers of Price Volatility
1. Geopolitical Factors
- Escalating Middle Eastern conflict and heightened shipping risks through the Strait of Hormuz have prompted global refineries to prioritize domestic demand and restrict exports—tightening global jet fuel supply and triggering volatility in international oil prices, which subsequently transmit to domestic kerosene prices. For example, international oil prices fluctuated sharply in March 2026 due to Middle Eastern tensions, causing corresponding volatility in Singapore FOB prices—and domestic kerosene prices were similarly affected.
2. Supply-Demand Shifts
- On the supply side, domestic output growth, import fluctuations, and refinery capacity releases collectively influence supply volumes. Although domestic production is expanding, rapid growth in jet fuel demand—especially during winter heating peaks—can trigger localized supply tightness and upward price pressure. For instance, after the sharp nationwide price drop on April 20, 2026, prices stabilized, indicating enhanced market resilience to geopolitical risk—but also revealing subtle shifts in supply-demand equilibrium.
- On the demand side, recovery and expansion of the aviation transport sector remain the primary driver behind rising jet fuel demand; concurrent changes in industrial demand and stable civilian demand jointly shape overall kerosene demand—and thereby influence pricing.
3. Cost Factors
- Persistently high international crude oil prices directly elevate domestic jet fuel procurement costs. For example, on March 12, 2026, domestic ex-works prices rose to RMB 8,500/ton—up ~18% from the beginning of the year—closely correlated with repeated breaches of USD 100/barrel in international oil prices.

(B) Competitive Landscape
1. Corporate Competition
- The ‘Big Three’ state-owned oil companies (Sinopec, CNPC, and CNOOC) still command >90% of China’s jet fuel market, leveraging scale advantages and brand strength. Meanwhile, private integrated refiners—including Hengli Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Shenghong Petrochemical—are rapidly rising. In 2024, local refineries’ jet fuel capacity surpassed 8 million tons/year, capturing 18% of total national capacity—a 12-percentage-point increase since 2018. Through technological innovation and flexible marketing strategies, these players have secured footholds in niche segments or specialized product categories, achieving rapid growth via differentiation.
2. Regional Competition
- Aviation fuel distribution hubs in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta possess marginal pricing authority. Wholesale prices in East and South China remain consistently higher than inland levels—conferring regional price leadership. In contrast, inland markets exhibit comparatively lower prices, generating inter-regional competitive dynamics.

III. Forecasts
(A) Short-Term (1–3 Months)
1. Price Trend
- Amid ongoing Middle Eastern conflict and supply-chain constraints, international oil prices are likely to remain volatile and upward-biased. Domestic kerosene prices are forecast to oscillate within RMB 7,500–8,500/ton. Following the April 2026 price correction and stabilization, absent major geopolitical shocks or abrupt supply-demand shifts, prices are expected to remain range-bound in this interval.
2. Regional Differentials
- Regions with high import dependency (e.g., Australia-related trade zones potentially affecting Chinese kerosene imports) may see price increases exceeding 20%, whereas domestically well-supplied regions will experience milder fluctuations. The price gap between distribution hubs (e.g., Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta) and inland regions is expected to persist.

(B) Medium-to-Long Term (6–12 Months)
1. Demand-Driven Growth
- With continued global economic recovery and sustained expansion of air transport, jet fuel demand growth is projected at 6–8% annually. Prices are thus expected to gradually recover to above RMB 9,000/ton. While industrial kerosene faces substitution pressure in some applications, its demand in select sectors is likely to expand moderately; civilian demand remains stable—jointly supporting upward price momentum.
2. Structural Transformation Acceleration
- Breakthroughs in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) technologies—combined with economies of scale, supportive policies, and market pull—will progressively raise bio-jet fuel’s share in the aviation fuel mix, accelerating industry-wide green transition. This shift may reshape traditional kerosene supply structures and cost bases, exerting some downward pressure on conventional kerosene prices. Nevertheless, traditional kerosene will retain dominance in the near term, and overall price trends are expected to remain upward.