Market Intelligence Report on Methyl Ethyl Ketoxime (MEKO) – Recent Commodity Market Dynamics

I. Price Dynamics
- Base Price: As of May 26, 2026, the Business Network’s base price for methyl ethyl ketoxime (MEKO) stands at RMB 14,700.00 per metric ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month and remaining within the annual high range.
- Price Fluctuation Range: Annual statistics indicate a minimum price of RMB 14,433.33/ton, a maximum of RMB 14,750.00/ton, and a median of RMB 14,591.67/ton. The current price is near the upper bound of this range.

II. Supply and Demand
- Supply Side: Domestic MEKO producers are limited in number, primarily comprising Xinlan Tian Chemical, Zhejiang Jinhua Chemical, Hubei Xianlin Chemical, and Zhejiang Sheng’an Chemical, among a few others. Overall supply elasticity remains low, as some manufacturers face constraints due to raw material availability and plant operational issues.
- Demand Side:
Export Demand: A persistent supply gap overseas continues to support export orders for leading domestic plants; shipment pressure remained low in May, with quotation levels maintained at a firm, elevated level.
Domestic Demand: Domestic downstream users demonstrate weak acceptance of high prices, resulting in subdued purchasing activity. The industry is gradually entering its seasonal lull, further dampening trading enthusiasm.

III. Cost Structure and Profitability
- Raw Material Costs: Butanone (MEK), the core raw material for MEKO production, directly influences manufacturing costs through its price volatility. Although butanone prices have recently retreated from highs, cost pressures remain sufficient to provide a floor for MEKO pricing.
- Production Profitability: Current processing margins in the MEKO sector remain robust, supporting strong producer willingness to maintain pricing discipline. However, attractive profit margins may incentivize existing capacity to operate at full load and accelerate commissioning of new capacity.

IV. Industry Developments
- Plant Operations: Since the second half of 2025, butanone production facilities have undergone frequent maintenance shutdowns. Compounded by geopolitical tensions and international crude oil price volatility, butanone supply has tightened—exerting upward pressure on the MEKO market.
- Market Sentiment: Export-oriented enterprises, backed by solid order books, maintain firm quotations; domestically focused producers, facing downstream resistance to high prices, continue offering concessions to facilitate sales. Consequently, the market exhibits pronounced bifurcation.

Analysis and Outlook

I. Short-Term Market Outlook
- Price Trend: MEKO prices are unlikely to reverse their current soft trend in the near term. Nevertheless, sustained export demand will likely prevent significant downward adjustments in quoted prices, and actual transaction prices may continue declining modestly (“bearish drift”).
- Supply-Demand Balance: While overseas supply shortages persist in the short run, domestic downstream demand remains sluggish. This divergence between external and internal demand will continue, sustaining elevated quotations while prompting rational, moderate adjustments in actual transactions.

II. Medium-to-Long-Term Market Outlook
- Cost Support: Although butanone prices have eased from recent peaks, underlying cost support for MEKO remains intact—though insufficient to drive prices meaningfully higher.
- Supply Pressure: Should the butanone supply bottleneck remain unresolved, MEKO supply constraints will intensify further. Price stabilization and market equilibrium may increasingly rely on demand-driven production scheduling (“produce-to-order”) and planned maintenance shutdowns to rebalance supply and demand.
- Demand Growth: End-user demand remains closely tied to macroeconomic health. Given the slow pace of broader consumption recovery, no explosive growth in MEKO demand is anticipated in the foreseeable future.

Forecast

I. Price Forecast
- Short Term: MEKO prices are expected to continue drifting lower modestly, with limited downside risk. The benchmark price is projected to remain within the RMB 14,500–14,700/ton range.
- Medium to Long Term: If butanone supply tightness persists, MEKO prices may sustain elevated levels; however, resolution of the butanone supply bottleneck—or further deterioration in downstream demand—could trigger price corrections.

II. Market Trends
- Supply-Demand Landscape: The MEKO market faces an imbalance characterized by ample supply and insufficient demand. The annual average price may potentially reach a new historical low.
- Industry Profitability: Average industry profitability is unlikely to recover meaningfully; enterprises must focus on production optimization and cost reduction to navigate ongoing market challenges.

III. Risk Alerts
- Geopolitical Conflict: De-escalation in the Middle East could lead to declines in international crude oil prices, thereby weakening cost support for both butanone and MEKO.
- Export Volatility: Slowing global economic growth and intensifying international competition may impair MEKO export prospects, exacerbating domestic supply pressure.
- Policy Adjustments: Regulatory changes related to environmental protection, occupational safety, or other compliance areas could impact plant operations and market supply—requiring close monitoring of policy developments.