Vinylene Carbonate (VC) Recent Commodity Market Intelligence Report

I. Price Dynamics

1. East China Region:
- Battery-grade 4N (99.99%) VC spot quotation: RMB 185,000–195,000 per ton; mainstream transaction price: RMB 190,000 per ton.
- Near-5N high-purity grade VC spot quotation: RMB 320,000–340,000 per ton; mainstream transaction price: RMB 330,000 per ton.
- 5N electronic-grade VC spot quotation: RMB 330,000–350,000 per ton; mainstream transaction price: RMB 340,000 per ton.

2. Other Regions:
- Shandong Province: National Standard Premium-grade VC prices remain stable at RMB 49,500–50,000 per ton.
- Domestic premium-grade VC prices fluctuate within RMB 49,000–51,000 per ton.
- Select high-end products—including near-5N high-purity grade and 5N electronic-grade—command prices of RMB 320,000–340,000 per ton and RMB 330,000–350,000 per ton, respectively.

3. Historical Price Review:
- In September 2025, VC prices hit a historical low of approximately RMB 43,000–50,000 per ton.
- In November 2025, prices surged over 50% in a single day—reaching a peak of RMB 270,000 per ton—driven by the shutdown of Shandong Genyuan and surging demand from the energy storage sector.
- From January to February 2026, long-term contract (LTC) prices exceeded RMB 200,000 per ton, while spot prices remained between RMB 250,000–300,000 per ton.
- In March 2026, prices stabilized at elevated levels: LTCs held steady around RMB 200,000 per ton, while spot prices continued trading in the RMB 250,000–300,000 per ton range.

II. Supply-Demand Balance

1. Demand Side:
- Sustained growth in new energy vehicles (NEVs) and energy storage batteries has boosted electrolyte shipment volumes.
- VC demand in 2026 is projected to increase by 50.9% year-on-year, reaching 93,200 metric tons.
- Demand from the energy storage battery segment is particularly robust, with VC dosage ratios ranging from 4% to 6%, exceeding the 3%–5% ratio typical for power batteries.

2. Supply Side:
- Industry capacity stood at 105,000 tons/year in 2024, with operating rates below 50%.
- Operating rate rebounded to 67.8% in October 2025, yet new capacity ramp-up lags behind demand growth.
- Production volume in 2026 is forecast to rise by 50.8% year-on-year to 96,700 tons. Over 80,000 tons of new capacity is expected to come online, but its release pace remains slower than demand expansion.

III. Cost Factors

1. Raw Material Costs:
- Ethylene Carbonate (EC), the primary raw material for VC, has seen notable price increases driven by rising international oil prices.
- In November 2025, EC prices climbed from RMB 5,000 per ton to over RMB 6,000 per ton, intensifying production cost pressure on VC manufacturers.

2. Other Costs:
- Stricter environmental regulations have raised production costs; however, policy relaxation could enhance supply elasticity.

IV. Market Structure

1. Industry Concentration:
- The VC industry exhibits relatively high market concentration, with leading enterprises—including Shandong Genyuan and Jiangsu Huasheng—holding dominant positions.
- Leading players are further expanding their market shares through technological leadership, economies of scale, and strong customer relationships; industry concentration is expected to rise further.

2. Price Elasticity:
- High-end products (e.g., 5N electronic-grade) demonstrate greater price elasticity and higher profit margins.
- Battery-grade 4N products exhibit comparatively stable pricing, though subject to volatility influenced by supply-demand dynamics.

V. Analysis and Outlook

1. Short-Term Trend:
- Supported by rising raw material costs, tight supply-demand balance, and explosive energy storage demand, VC prices are expected to remain strong and trade in a high-level range.
- Battery-grade 4N VC prices are likely to hold within RMB 185,000–195,000 per ton; high-end products (e.g., 5N electronic-grade) may exceed RMB 350,000 per ton.

2. Long-Term Trend:
- As newly added capacities gradually come online and ramp up, prices may moderate from current peaks.
- Should environmental policies ease or smaller manufacturers rapidly resume operations, supply elasticity could improve significantly, potentially accelerating price declines.
- Robust growth in the energy storage market and ongoing lithium-ion battery technology advancements will sustain long-term demand, keeping the annual average price elevated.

VI. Forecast

1. Price Forecast:
- In the near term, VC prices will continue trading at elevated levels; battery-grade 4N prices are expected to remain within RMB 185,000–195,000 per ton.
- High-end products (e.g., 5N electronic-grade) may see further upside, potentially breaking through the RMB 350,000 per ton threshold.
- Over the longer term, as new capacity is commissioned and supply-demand equilibrium improves, prices may decline moderately from peak levels—but the annual average price is still anticipated to remain comparatively high.

2. Supply-Demand Forecast:
- Demand is expected to maintain robust growth, especially in the energy storage battery segment.
- New supply capacity will ramp up progressively, yet in the short term, it remains insufficient to fully meet market demand—resulting in an ongoing supply deficit.

3. Market Structure Forecast:
- Industry concentration is expected to increase further, with leading enterprises expanding market share leveraging technological capabilities, scale advantages, and established customer bases.
- The high-end product segment will become a key battleground for competition; firms possessing both technical expertise and scale advantages will gain stronger competitive positioning.