Ammonium Sulfate Market Intelligence Report

I. Price Trends
- Domestic Market:
- As of May 25, 2026, the mainstream price range for caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong Province stands at RMB 1,810–1,920 per metric ton, down by RMB 80/ton from the previous level; the mainstream price range for coke-oven-grade ammonium sulfate is RMB 1,350–1,391/ton, down by RMB 85–110/ton, resulting in an average price differential of RMB 494.5/ton between the two grades.
- On May 22, the ammonium sulfate price was RMB 1,770.00/ton, representing a 9.04% increase over the prior 60 days; as of May 25, prices have retreated from their early-month highs but remain above the year-start level.
- International Market:
- India’s crystal ammonium sulfate tender prices were weak, with the lowest West Coast CFR price settling at USD 294/ton; if back-calculated, domestic ex-factory prices for caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate could decline to approximately RMB 1,700–1,750/ton.
- In Brazil, granular ammonium sulfate CFR import prices stood at USD 245–265/ton in mid-May; following alleviation of pressure from unsold volumes carried over from earlier periods, new quotations have edged upward.

II. Supply-Demand Dynamics
- Supply Side:
- Caprolactam industry operating rates stand at 73.17%, down 1.70 percentage points week-on-week; further declines in operating loads are anticipated due to raw material constraints at certain plants, leading to continued tightening in supply capacity for caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate.
- Coke-oven enterprises’ operating rate is at 76.06%, showing modest improvement since the start of the year; however, overall operational fluctuations remain limited, and no significant change in operating rates is expected for the remainder of May—monthly output of coke-oven-grade ammonium sulfate is projected at ~440,000 tons, up ~4% year-on-year.
- Demand Side:
- Domestic demand remains sluggish, with few new orders being concluded; upstream producers face mounting pressure to offload inventory.
- International demand is divergent: tender prices in India remain weak, while Brazilian procurement sentiment stays subdued; nevertheless, with the approach of the traditional peak-demand season, CFR import prices in Brazil have risen slightly.

III. Market Sentiment and Participant Psychology
- Domestic market sentiment is weak on both supply and demand fronts; prices at elevated levels are undergoing correction (“topping out and falling back”), and participants adopt a cautious stance, closely monitoring end-market transaction feedback.
- Internationally, sentiment remains mixed: tender pricing in India is disappointing and Brazilian procurement enthusiasm remains low; however, market sentiment may improve later this year as the traditional peak-demand season approaches.

IV. Impact of Related Products
- Urea Market: From January to April 2026, China’s urea exports totaled 490,000 tons—up a staggering 5,661.1% year-on-year—reflecting explosive growth in overseas demand, which strongly supports domestic urea spot prices; however, its direct impact on the ammonium sulfate market is limited.
- Phosphate Ammonium Market: Export demand for monoammonium phosphate (MAP) has rebounded, whereas demand for diammonium phosphate (DAP) has weakened; overall, these developments exert minimal influence on the ammonium sulfate market.

Analysis & Assessment

1. Price Trend Analysis:
- The domestic ammonium sulfate market, after an earlier rally, is now exhibiting signs of topping out and retreating, primarily driven by weak supply-demand fundamentals and lackluster international demand.
- Caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate prices remain relatively resilient, supported by tightening supply and prior export order commitments; however, scarcity of new orders implies potential price softness ahead.
- Coke-oven-grade ammonium sulfate faces downward price pressure stemming from ample supply and weak demand, with further downside of RMB 50–100/ton likely in the near term.

2. Supply-Demand Analysis:
- On the supply side: declining caprolactam plant operating rates continue to constrain caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate availability, while coke-oven-grade supply remains abundant.
- On the demand side: domestic demand remains sluggish, and international demand remains fragmented—India’s tender prices are weak and Brazilian procurement sentiment remains muted—yet demand may improve as the traditional peak season draws nearer.

3. Market Sentiment Analysis:
- Domestic sentiment remains cautious, with market participants closely tracking end-user transaction activity; internationally, sentiment is mixed, with divergent conditions observed in India versus Brazil.

Outlook & Forecast

1. Price Trend Forecast:
- In the short term, domestic ammonium sulfate prices are likely to remain under downward pressure, particularly for coke-oven-grade material, where further declines appear probable.
- Over the longer term, improved international demand and gradual rebalancing of domestic supply-demand dynamics may support stabilization and eventual recovery in ammonium sulfate prices.

2. Supply-Demand Forecast:
- On the supply side: caprolactam plant operating rates may continue to decline, further tightening supply of caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate; coke-oven-grade supply is expected to remain plentiful.
- On the demand side: improving international demand—coupled with steady growth in domestic agricultural consumption—may gradually lift overall ammonium sulfate demand.

3. Market Sentiment & Psychology Forecast:
- Domestic sentiment may gradually improve as prices adjust and supply-demand fundamentals stabilize; internationally, sentiment may turn more optimistic as demand improves.