Recent Market Intelligence Report on Thermal Coal

I. Price Dynamics
1. Domestic Market
- As of May 22, 2026, Mysteel’s statistics show that thermal coal inventory across 55 major Chinese ports stood at 71.735 million tons, an increase of 0.893 million tons week-on-week.
- Thermal coal prices at northern Chinese ports remained stable at elevated levels in late May; market sentiment was relatively strong, and the supply-demand balance remained broadly equilibrium.
- At the production origins: delivered prices for Q5500 chemical-grade coal in Shanxi Province ranged from RMB 666 to 691 per ton; delivered price for Q5800 chemical-grade coal in Henan Province was RMB 855 per ton; and delivered price for Q5800 chemical-grade coal in Shaanxi Province was RMB 680 per ton. Prices across major producing regions remained relatively stable.

2. International Market
- The global power-generation coal market remains robust, with major thermal coal benchmark prices rising month-on-month.

II. Supply-Demand Situation
1. Supply Side
- Domestic coal mines continue operating at high capacity. Some mines implemented temporary production cuts or suspensions due to monthly output targets; however, operations have gradually resumed to normal post-holiday, resulting in a steady recovery in marketable coal supply.
- Following the conclusion of the Daqin Railway’s spring maintenance, transportation capacity has steadily rebounded. Inflow and outbound volumes at northern ports remain broadly balanced, with no significant pressure on inventory accumulation.

2. Demand Side
- Power Sector: Procurement demand from power plants remains stable, underpinned by sustained thermal power generation requirements. With summer approaching and ambient temperatures gradually rising, power plants have commenced their pre-summer coal stocking initiatives; subsequent replenishment demand is expected to be progressively released.
- Chemical Industry: The urea market operates steadily, and raw-material thermal coal prices remain firm compared to pre-holiday levels—providing solid cost support for urea producers. Chemical end-users maintain procurement primarily based on immediate needs, holding inventories at safe, mid-level ranges.
- Other Industries: Demand from building materials and steel sectors remains relatively weak, leading to reduced thermal coal consumption.

III. Market Sentiment and Trading Activity
1. Market Sentiment
- Overall market sentiment remains relatively strong, with a balanced supply-demand structure and no pronounced bearish outlook.
- Traders are actively maintaining pricing discipline and exhibiting strong reluctance to sell at discounted rates; operational sentiment remains positive, with no intention to lower prices for prompt sales.

2. Trading Activity
- Trading activity at northern ports remains vibrant, with prices sustaining pre-holiday elevated levels.
- End-user inventories remain at reasonable levels; pre-holiday procurement momentum continues into the holiday period, and downstream buyers retain robust purchasing willingness—resulting in sustained fulfillment of fundamental demand-driven transactions.

Analysis & Assessment

1. Price Trend Outlook
- Thermal coal prices are expected to remain resilient in the near term, supported by a broadly balanced supply-demand structure, strong market sentiment, and growing pre-summer stockpiling demand from power utilities.
- Over the longer term, thermal coal prices will fluctuate seasonally, influenced by variations in hydroelectric and new-energy generation output. With the arrival of the summer peak electricity demand season, thermal coal prices are likely to rise.

2. Supply-Demand Relationship
- On the supply side, domestic coal production remains at high levels, and marketable coal supply is recovering steadily; however, overall supply remains relatively tight, with no large-scale surge in output observed.
- On the demand side, power-sector demand is growing steadily, chemical-sector demand remains stable, while demand from building materials and steel sectors remains comparatively sluggish. Overall, thermal coal demand exhibits a stable growth trajectory.

3. Market Sentiment and Trading Activity
- Market sentiment remains constructive, with traders demonstrating strong pricing discipline and reluctance to discount—contributing to price resilience.
- Trading activity remains active, particularly at northern ports, where transactional volume remains robust and fundamental demand-driven deals continue to be executed regularly—supporting market liquidity and price stability.

Forecast

1. Short-Term Forecast
- Over the coming week, thermal coal prices are expected to maintain their resilient stance, supported by power utilities’ pre-summer stockpiling demand and prevailing strong market sentiment.

2. Medium-to-Long-Term Forecast
- With the onset of the summer peak electricity demand season, thermal coal demand is poised to expand, supporting upward price movement. However, the magnitude of gains may be moderated by factors including incremental domestic supply capacity, import coal availability, and fluctuations in hydroelectric and new-energy generation output.
- Looking further ahead, the thermal coal market is anticipated to experience concurrent growth in both supply and demand. Prices will continue to fluctuate seasonally and in response to hydroelectric and new-energy generation dynamics. Annual price volatility is expected to remain within a rational range; given underlying cost supports, downside risk appears limited.