Market Intelligence Report on Dibutyl Phthalate (DBP) in Commodity Markets

I. Price Dynamics
- Recent Price Fluctuations:
- As of May 24, 2026, DBP prices exhibited regional divergence: Jiangsu Province quoted RMB 9,000/ton; Zhejiang Province also quoted RMB 9,000/ton; Kaifeng Jiuhong Chemical Co., Ltd. (Henan Province) offered first-grade DBP at RMB 8,850/ton; Hubei Province quoted premium-grade DBP at RMB 8,800/ton; and Shandong Province quoted industrial-grade DBP at RMB 7,000/ton.
- On May 22, domestic DBP quotations were as follows: Shandong Fusheng Yong Trading Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 7,500/ton; Wuhan Hengjiu Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 8.2/kg; and Shandong Beilu Hengsheng Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted RMB 6,700/kg.
- From May 17 onward—and over preceding days—prices fluctuated frequently within the range of RMB 6,700/kg to RMB 8,200/ton, with notable intraday quotation discrepancies observed even for the same manufacturer.

- Regional Price Spread:
- Prices in the East China region (Jiangsu and Zhejiang) consistently exceeded those in central and western regions (Henan, Hubei, and Shandong) by RMB 1,000–2,000/ton, primarily driven by logistics costs, brand premium, and regional supply-demand imbalances.

II. Supply-Demand Dynamics
- Supply Side:
- Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang are the principal production bases, exhibiting high concentration of capacity. Stricter environmental regulations in Shandong have led to output restrictions at certain enterprises, tightening supply of industrial-grade DBP.
- Leading manufacturers—including Nanjing Runsheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Jinan Zesheng Chemical Co., Ltd.—have enhanced capacity utilization through process optimization (e.g., solvent recovery technologies); however, overall market supply remains constrained by volatility in raw material prices.

- Demand Side:
- The plastic products industry (accounting for 65% of total demand) maintains stable consumption, while emerging sectors—such as new-energy vehicles and electronics & electrical appliances—are driving rapid growth in demand for high-performance DBP, with annual growth exceeding 25%.
- Demand from construction adhesives and coatings industries (combined share: 20%) has slowed due to real estate policy tightening, registering only 8–11% year-on-year growth.
- Demand from synthetic fiber applications (15% share) remains steady, though penetration of eco-friendly alternatives is gradually increasing.

III. Key Market Drivers
- Policy Impact:
- Implementation of China’s “Action Plan for Emerging Pollutants Control” and the “List of Key-Controlled Emerging Pollutants” is accelerating green transformation across the DBP industry, lifting the share of environmentally compliant products to 42%.
- The reduction of VAT rate to 9% is projected to save the industry approximately RMB 560 million annually in tax burden. Some enterprises are investing in technological upgrades to reduce energy consumption per unit output and strengthen competitiveness.

- Raw Material Costs:
- Price fluctuations of key feedstocks—terephthalic acid and n-butanol—directly affect DBP’s cost structure. Tightness in the raw material market has pushed DBP prices upward; however, downstream price resistance is limiting further gains.

- International Trade:
- China’s annual DBP exports stand at 400,000 tons, predominantly destined for Southeast Asia and Central/Eastern Europe. Rising international environmental standards and growing trade protectionism—especially import restrictions imposed by some developed countries—are compelling Chinese producers to diversify export markets.

IV. Market Analysis & Outlook
- Short-Term Trends:
- Increased price volatility: DBP prices will continue to exhibit pronounced regional divergence and frequent intraday fluctuations in the near term, influenced by raw material costs, regional supply-demand mismatches, and varying enforcement intensity of environmental policies.
- Supply tightness: Output curtailments in Shandong and capacity optimization by leading firms are sustaining tight supply of industrial-grade DBP, supporting elevated pricing.

- Long-Term Trends:
- Accelerated green transition: Under mounting regulatory pressure, the share of low-emission, high-value-added DBP products will continue rising; traditional-process manufacturers face heightened risk of phase-out.
- Upgraded demand structure: Rapid expansion in new-energy vehicles and electronics & electrical appliances will become the core growth engine for the DBP market.

V. Forecasts
- Price Forecast:
- June 2026: Supported by raw material costs and constrained supply, DBP prices are expected to remain within RMB 8,500–9,200/ton, with East China potentially exceeding RMB 9,500/ton.
- Second half of 2026: With new capacity coming online and raw material prices moderating, prices may gradually ease to RMB 8,000–8,800/ton; however, premiums for eco-friendly DBP products are expected to widen.

- Market Forecast:
- Capacity expansion: Total industry capacity in 2026 is projected to reach 2.6 million tons, with output surpassing 2.15 million tons and capacity utilization stabilizing around 83%.
- Export growth: Leveraging the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s DBP exports are expected to rise to 450,000 tons/year, expanding its global market share.
- Technological evolution: Breakthroughs in non-phthalate plasticizer technologies and commercialization of waste-resource recovery processes will drive the industry toward low-carbon and digital transformation.