Phosphoammonium Dihydrogen Market Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast

I. Market Intelligence
Price Trend
- On May 21 and May 25, 2026, the Base Price of diammonium phosphate (DAP) on Shengyishe (Business Society) remained unchanged at RMB 7,766.67 per metric ton, representing a 4.02% increase compared to the beginning-of-month price of RMB 7,466.67 per metric ton. From an annual perspective, this price level is near the upper end of the range: the 12-month minimum was RMB 6,966.67/ton, the maximum RMB 7,900.00/ton, the median RMB 7,433.34/ton, and the average between RMB 7,222.31–7,227.78/ton.

Market Size and Production Capacity
- In 2025, China’s diammonium phosphate market size reached RMB 17.7471 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.2%, marking three consecutive years of double-digit growth. The market size is projected to reach RMB 19.205 billion in 2026, an 8.2% increase over 2025.
- Capacity utilization in 2025 rose to 84.6%, up significantly from 81.3% in 2024, indicating that the industry has moved past the prior phase of overcapacity adjustment and entered a healthy, supply-demand rebalancing phase. Among expansion projects launched in 2025 by the top three enterprises—Yuntianhua, Hubei Yihua, and Sichuan Meifeng—a total of 760,000 tons/year of new capacity came online in Q1 2026.

Import/Export Situation
- Export: In 2025, China’s DAP exports totaled 3.82 million metric tons, up 9.7% year-on-year, primarily destined for India, Brazil, and rice-growing countries in Southeast Asia. The International Fertilizer Association (IFA) forecasts the global phosphorus fertilizer inventory-to-consumption ratio to decline to 14.7% in 2026—below the five-year average of 17.2%. Coupled with OCP Group (Morocco) tightening its 2026 export quota by 3.5%, China’s bargaining power in international fertilizer markets is expected to strengthen further. For 2026, the total tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for DAP imports into China stands at 6.9 million tons, comprising 3.52 million tons under state-trading TRQ and 3.38 million tons under non-state-trading TRQ.
- Import: In 2024, China’s DAP imports amounted to only 200 metric tons, valued at approximately USD 279,000—down USD 124,000 (30.9%) year-on-year.

Industry Policies
- Environmental Policy: The Ministry of Ecology and Environment’s “Evaluation Index System for Cleaner Production in the Phosphate Chemical Industry (2025 Revised Edition)” mandates that, effective January 1, 2026, all newly constructed projects achieve fluorine recovery rates no lower than 98.5%. This requirement is expected to eliminate approximately 12% of small- and medium-scale production capacity, raising the CR5 (concentration ratio of the top five firms) from 58.3% in 2025 to 64.1% in 2026.
- Agricultural Policy: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs’ “Fertilizer Reduction Action Plan to 2030” explicitly stipulates that the coverage rate of soil-testing and formulated fertilization technology must exceed 92% by 2026. As DAP serves as the core phosphorus carrier in formulated fertilizers, surging demand for customized blending will lift per-ton added value by approximately 12%–15%.

Corporate Developments
- Yuntianhua, leveraging its proprietary phosphate rock reserves and an 800,000-ton/year wet-process phosphoric acid purification facility, achieved a DAP gross margin of 22.4% in 2025—significantly higher than the industry average of 16.8%.
- Hubei Yihua, in collaboration with the Institute of Process Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences, developed a low-temperature crystallization process enabling stable control of total nutrient content (N + P?O?) at 68.5% ± 0.3%. This breakthrough successfully secured entry into the premium horticultural fertilizer supply chain; revenue from this niche segment accounted for 23.7% of Hubei Yihua’s total DAP sales in 2025.

II. Analysis and Judgment
Drivers of Price Increase
- Demand Support: Domestic agricultural demand for DAP is rising due to expanded adoption of soil-testing and formulated fertilization technologies and growing demand for customized blending. Internationally, heightened global food security concerns have reinforced buyers’ willingness to procure high-efficiency phosphorus fertilizers, further strengthening China’s export pricing power and boosting export-driven demand.
- Cost Factors: Leading enterprises are mitigating volatility in raw material (e.g., phosphate rock) prices via technological upgrades—including wet-process phosphoric acid purification and low-temperature crystallization—thus reducing per-unit energy consumption. Nevertheless, the broader industry may still face moderate cost pressures, contributing to upward price momentum.
- Policy Impact: Environmental regulations are phasing out smaller, less-efficient producers, elevating industry concentration and enhancing pricing power among leading players. Meanwhile, agricultural policy is promoting value-added product development, also supporting price appreciation.

Industry Development Trends
- Technological Upgrading: The industry has transitioned from a phase of extensive capacity expansion into a technology-intensive value-reconstruction stage. “Vertical integration in phosphate chemical industry + green-process premium” has become the dual strategic focus for capital allocation.
- Green Development: ESG compliance costs have emerged as a new market-entry threshold, compelling enterprises to advance green and low-carbon transformation.
- Product Structure Optimization: The share of slow-/controlled-release DAP and microelement-enriched compound DAP formulations continues to rise, accelerating the industry’s shift from basic fertilizers toward functional, customized agrochemical solutions.

III. Forecast
Price Forecast
- In the short term, DAP prices are likely to remain elevated, supported by robust international demand, enhanced export pricing power, and increased domestic agricultural demand. However, attention should be paid to potential “black swan” events—such as extreme weather—that could disrupt global phosphorus fertilizer demand. For instance, a contraction in South American soybean planting area might trigger a cascading reduction in global phosphorus fertilizer demand—and conversely, could precipitate further price escalation.

Market Size Forecast
- The market size is projected to grow further to RMB 19.205 billion in 2026, reflecting a 6.5% annual growth rate. Key growth drivers include the release of export volume gains, rising demand from premium compound fertilizer production, and structural market-share reallocation following the exit of obsolete production capacity.

Industry Structure Forecast
- Industry concentration will continue to rise. Leading enterprises—backed by resource control, technological capabilities, and deep export channel integration—will sustain capital returns above the industry average. For new investors, simple capacity replication no longer yields excess returns; competitive advantage now hinges on control over phosphate rock resources, readiness in wet-process phosphoric acid purification technology, or deep, long-term binding with export distribution networks.