Potassium Sulfate: Recent Commodity Market Dynamics and Analytical Forecast

I. Market Price Dynamics
1. Domestic Prices
- As of May 27, 2026, the Business Network’s benchmark price for potassium sulfate stood at RMB 4,076.67 per metric ton, up approximately RMB 10/ton from the previous week (May 20), reflecting a modest upward trend.
- Among processed potassium sulfate products: Mannheim-process 50% powder potassium sulfate averaged RMB 4,050/ton ex-factory; 52% powder averaged RMB 4,400/ton ex-factory—both stable week-on-week. Among water-salt-process products: Xinjiang Luozhong Potash’s 52% powder potassium sulfate delivered price was RMB 3,600/ton; Qinghai’s 50% powder potassium sulfate delivered price was RMB 3,650/ton—both unchanged from last week.

2. Regional Price Differentials
- In Shandong Province, quotations for Mannheim 52% powder potassium sulfate showed notable divergence: some enterprises quoted RMB 4,300/ton, while others—constrained by tight supply—quoted as low as RMB 3,800/ton, highlighting localized supply-demand imbalances.

II. Market Driving Factors Analysis
1. Cost-Side Support
- Potassium chloride (raw material): Port inventories declined to a new low of 1.95 million tons; supply is highly concentrated, and traders are reluctant to sell. Prices for certain scarce grades rose by RMB 20–50/ton, increasing production costs for potassium sulfate.
- Sulfur and sulfuric acid: Domestic sulfur averaged RMB 7,363/ton; sulfuric acid averaged RMB 1,766/ton—further compressing profit margins for Mannheim-process producers, with some operating at losses of RMB 200–300/ton.

2. Supply-Demand Landscape
- Supply side: Processed potassium sulfate plants maintained low operating rates (~40%), whereas resource-based producers (e.g., Xinjiang Luozhong Potash) operated steadily; overall market liquidity remained tight.
- Demand side: The spring farming fertilizer season is entering its final phase; compound fertilizer manufacturers are primarily fulfilling prior orders, with cautious procurement of new orders. Agricultural demand consists mainly of small-batch top-up purchases; industrial demand shows no significant growth.

3. Policy & Trade Developments
- National policies—including long-term supply agreements and price-stabilization measures—aim to ensure market stability in the potash sector. However, limited arrivals of imported potassium chloride continue to keep port inventories low, reinforcing market expectations of supply tightness.
- In February 2026, potassium sulfate imports surged 594% year-on-year, yet absolute volume remained modest (0.4786 million tons), exerting negligible influence on the domestic market.

III. Key Market Contradictions
1. Cost-Demand Trade-off: Rising raw material prices persist, yet downstream buyers exhibit limited tolerance for higher prices—potassium sulfate producers face the dual challenge of “difficulty raising prices” and “substantial losses.”
2. Regional Supply-Demand Imbalance: Tight supply in regions such as Shandong—driven by plant maintenance or raw material shortages—contrasts with ample supply from resource-rich areas like Xinjiang and Qinghai, resulting in pronounced price divergence.

IV. Forward Outlook
1. Short Term (1–2 Weeks)
- Price Trend: Potassium sulfate prices are likely to remain stable with a slight upward bias. Processed producers may raise quotations modestly (RMB 50–100/ton) due to cost pressure, though actual transactions will remain flexible and negotiable.
- Supply-Demand Shifts: Operating rates may rise slightly as some maintenance activities conclude; however, persistently low port inventories of potassium chloride will continue to constrain meaningful supply expansion.

2. Medium Term (1–3 Months)
- Demand Side: The onset of the summer fertilizer season may generate short-term demand uplift, but overall demand growth is expected to decelerate. Industrial demand remains constrained by macroeconomic conditions.
- Cost Side: If sulfur and sulfuric acid prices remain elevated, potassium sulfate producers may respond via production cuts or product diversification—providing further price support.

3. Long Term (6+ Months)
- Policy Impact: National supply-security and price-stabilization policies—including expanded import quotas or strategic reserve releases—may moderate price volatility. Nevertheless, the global potash supply shortage is unlikely to ease significantly, suggesting an upward shift in the potassium sulfate price center.
- Industry Trend: Mannheim-process producers—constrained by environmental regulations and rising costs—are accelerating their exit from the market; resource-based producers are gaining market share, leading to heightened industry concentration.

V. Risk Alerts
1. Import Arrivals: A surge in imported potassium chloride arriving at ports from June onward could replenish inventories and alleviate supply tightness, thereby pressuring potassium sulfate prices downward.
2. Downstream Demand Volatility: Extreme weather events or fluctuations in agricultural commodity prices may impact fertilizer demand in agriculture; close monitoring of compound fertilizer producers’ operating rates is advised.
3. Policy Adjustments: Changes in national export controls on fertilizers or strategic reserve release policies may trigger short-term market volatility.