Cobalt Commodity Market Intelligence Report (May 27, 2026)

I. Price Trends
1. Recent Price Volatility
- On May 22, 2026, the reference price for cobalt stood at RMB 426,800 per metric ton, up 1.07% from RMB 422,300 per metric ton on May 1—representing a cumulative monthly increase of approximately 1.5%.
- On May 13, domestic cobalt quotations diverged: the Shanghai regional average price for cobalt (99.80% purity) was RMB 426,000 per metric ton, down RMB 1,500 per metric ton; the Guangdong regional average remained flat at RMB 422,000 per metric ton.
- Cobalt salt prices stabilized: cobalt sulfate (20.5% Co) traded in the range of RMB 93,000–96,000 per metric ton; cobalt chloride traded in the range of RMB 113,000–118,000 per metric ton—both unchanged week-on-week.

2. Historical Price Comparison
- As of April 30, 2026, the benchmark cobalt price was RMB 421,500 per metric ton, up 1.98% from RMB 413,300 per metric ton on March 27—indicating a gradual upward trend in early Q2.

II. Supply-Demand Dynamics
1. Supply Side
- Raw Material Constraints: Implementation delays in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s (DRC) cobalt intermediate export quota system—coupled with tight African shipping capacity—resulted in only a few mining enterprises securing vessel bookings in April. Consequently, arrivals at Chinese ports are limited for May–June, with a potential surge expected in July.
- Surge in Domestic Imports: In April 2026, China’s imports of unwrought cobalt reached 1,333.5 metric tons, up 38.83% month-on-month and 58.85% year-on-year. Cumulative imports from January to April totaled 5,915.8 metric tons, reflecting significant year-on-year growth and intensifying short-term supply pressure.

2. Demand Side
- Cautious Downstream Procurement: Demand remains sluggish in consumer electronics, while battery manufacturers adopt just-in-time inventory replenishment strategies. Production planning for ternary cathode materials and lithium cobalt oxide rose modestly month-on-month in May—but with limited incremental growth.
- Emerging Sector Potential: Companies such as Tengyuan Cobalt Industry are accelerating investments in solid-state batteries, AI computing infrastructure, and low-altitude economy applications—offering promising long-term demand growth.

III. Market Drivers
1. Policy & Geopolitical Risks
- The DRC’s quota regime has tightened supply, while the U.S.–Iran conflict disrupts sulfur supply (indirectly raising cobalt smelting costs), jointly supporting an upward shift in the price floor.
- China’s “anti-cutthroat competition” policy curbs industry overexpansion, enhancing earnings stability for leading enterprises.

2. Cost Support
- Cobalt intermediates (CIF China) averaged USD 25.8–26.2 per pound, with constrained African shipping capacity likely pushing up import costs after June.
- Stable cobalt sulfate and cobalt chloride prices have reduced producers’ incentive to re-dissolve electrolytic cobalt—mitigating downward pressure from low-priced cobalt salts.

IV. Corporate Developments
1. Performance of Leading Enterprises
- Tengyuan Cobalt Industry reported Q1 2026 revenue of RMB 2.559 billion (up 75.13% YoY) and net profit of RMB 531 million (up 330.11% YoY), achieving record-high cobalt production and sales volumes.
- Hanrui Cobalt Industry posted Q1 2026 revenue of RMB 1.865 billion (up 24.19% YoY) and net profit of RMB 64.75 million (up 51.07% YoY), with copper and nickel sales contributing most to growth.

2. Capacity Expansion
- Tengyuan Cobalt Industry’s “30,000-ton-per-year copper and 2,000-ton-per-year cobalt hydrometallurgical project” has completed main equipment installation and is scheduled to commence operations in H2 2026—bolstering raw material security.

V. Analysis & Outlook
1. Short Term (1–3 months)
- Price Range: Range-bound with mild upside bias. Supply constraints stemming from DRC quota delays and shipping bottlenecks provide support, but surging domestic imports and cautious restocking by downstream users cap further gains. Cobalt prices are expected to fluctuate within RMB 420,000–430,000 per metric ton.
- Cobalt Salt Recovery: Cobalt sulfate and cobalt chloride prices may see modest upward adjustments late in May, supported by rebounding electrolytic cobalt prices—though persistently weak consumer electronics demand will limit upside.

2. Medium Term (6–12 months)
- Supply-Demand Reversal: New capacity from Tengyuan and others—combined with a projected wave of African-origin cargoes arriving from July onward—may gradually ease supply pressures.
- Structural Demand Divergence: Demand growth in the power battery segment is slowing, while emerging sectors—including AI computing, solid-state batteries—will increasingly drive incremental demand.

3. Long Term (1–3 years)
- Higher Price Floor: Strategic revaluation of cobalt as a critical resource—and normalization of geopolitical risks—may lift the long-term price floor by 10–15% versus 2025 levels.
- Rising Industry Concentration: Leading firms will consolidate market leadership through capacity expansion and vertical integration, increasing pressure on smaller players to exit the market.

VI. Risk Alerts
- Political instability in Africa could disrupt supply chains;
- Technological shifts in power battery chemistries (e.g., high-nickel cathodes) may erode cobalt demand;
- Changes in central bank gold-buying pace could alter safe-haven sentiment transmission.