Carbon Monoxide Commodity Market Intelligence Report (March 4, 2026)

I. Price Trends
1. Domestic Market
- Hebei Region: Industrial-grade carbon monoxide (99.99% purity) is priced between RMB 220–280 per 40-L cylinder; electronic-grade carbon monoxide (99.9% purity) is priced between RMB 1,200–1,400 per cylinder (bottle price excluded).
- National Average Price: As of 2024, the national average market price for carbon monoxide stood at approximately RMB 2,563 per ton. Recently, supported by improving demand expectations from the chemical industry and rising crude oil costs, prices are expected to remain stable with an upward bias.

2. International Market
- The global carbon monoxide market was valued at USD 3.9438 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 4.7879 billion by 2029, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.3%. The Asia-Pacific region remains the largest consumption market, with its market size expected to reach USD 2.45 billion by 2029—primarily driven by demand from China, India, and other rapidly industrializing economies.

II. Supply-Demand Dynamics
1. Supply Side
- Production Capacity Distribution: China’s carbon monoxide production capacity is concentrated in major coke-producing provinces—including Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shandong, and Jiangsu. In 2024, domestic output totaled 9.727 million tons, with apparent demand at 9.348 million tons, indicating a broadly balanced supply-demand relationship.
- Corporate Developments: Key producers include Guangdong Huatex Gas Co., Ltd., Jining Xiechuang Gas Co., Ltd., and Nanjing Chengzhi Co., Ltd. The industry exhibits relatively high concentration, with leading enterprises maintaining dominant market positions.

2. Demand Side
- Downstream Industries: The chemical sector accounts for 71.26% of total demand; metallurgy, fuel, and other applications collectively represent 28.74%. In March 2026, with the onset of the traditional peak-demand season, downstream chemical plant operating rates have increased. Combined with crude oil cost support, demand for carbon monoxide is expected to strengthen.
- Policy Impact: China’s “Dual Carbon” (carbon peak and carbon neutrality) policy is accelerating energy structure transformation. High-energy-consuming enterprises face pressure to phase out outdated capacity; however, green upgrading initiatives within the chemical industry may boost demand for high-purity and electronic-grade carbon monoxide products.

III. Market Drivers
1. Cost Support
- In February 2026, Brent crude oil prices rose by 5.52% compared to pre-holiday levels, transmitting cost pressures into the broader chemical market. As a foundational raw material, carbon monoxide pricing is consequently under upward cost-driven pressure.
- The traditional peak-demand season in March—coupled with downstream restocking activity—is tightening the supply-demand balance, supporting a stable-to-firm price trend.

2. Policy and Environmental Factors
- Carbon Emission Trading System: In March 2026, the national China Emissions Allowance (CEA) spot market mid-price stood at RMB 72.78 per ton, while the China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) mid-price reached RMB 80.60 per ton. Elevated carbon prices reflect mounting decarbonization pressure, increasing operational costs for energy-intensive enterprises—and potentially catalyzing technological upgrades in carbon monoxide production toward low-carbon pathways.
- Stricter Automotive Emission Standards: Countries such as Vietnam have implemented more stringent vehicle emission regulations, indirectly reducing ambient carbon monoxide emissions. However, domestic demand from the chemical industry continues to be the primary driver of market dynamics.

3. International Market Linkage
- In February 2026, EU ETS allowance prices declined by 14.91%, while UK carbon prices fell by 27.95%. Conversely, Korean and New Zealand carbon markets posted gains of 4.98% and 18.09%, respectively. Although global carbon market divergence has limited direct impact on carbon monoxide international pricing, robust demand growth in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to provide underlying price support.

IV. Risks and Challenges
1. Overcapacity Pressure
- Domestic refining and petrochemical expansion remains robust in 2026. Capacity growth for downstream products—including ABS and polyethylene—exceeds 10% annually, whereas demand growth lags behind, potentially dampening indirect carbon monoxide demand.

2. Crude Oil Price Volatility
- Amid the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut cycle, oil prices may encounter a downward inflection point. Should the prevailing 2026 crude oil price range shift downward to USD 50–65 per barrel, cost support for carbon monoxide could weaken.

3. Tightening Environmental Regulations
- Under the “Dual Carbon” targets, high-energy-consuming enterprises face heightened risks of production curtailment or shutdown due to regional environmental policies—potentially causing short-term supply volatility in carbon monoxide.

V. Outlook (March–June 2026)
1. Price Trend
- Short Term: With March marking the traditional peak-demand season and strong cost support, carbon monoxide prices are likely to remain stable with modest upside momentum. Industrial-grade product prices are expected to hold within RMB 220–300 per 40-L cylinder; electronic-grade prices may rise slightly, buoyed by semiconductor industry demand.
- Medium to Long Term: Should crude oil prices weaken and downstream overcapacity concerns intensify, pricing pressure may emerge. Nevertheless, technological upgrades in green chemistry could offer partial offsetting support.

2. Supply-Demand Outlook
- Supply Side: Leading enterprises are expected to maintain high capacity utilization rates; however, localized environmental restrictions may trigger short-term supply fluctuations.
- Demand Side: The chemical sector’s share of total demand may further increase; demand growth for electronic-grade carbon monoxide is anticipated to outpace that of industrial-grade products.

3. Industry Recommendations
- Enterprises should closely monitor crude oil price volatility and downstream capacity deployment timelines, optimizing inventory management strategies;
- Accelerate R&D investment in electronic-grade and ultra-high-purity carbon monoxide to meet emerging demands from the semiconductor and new-energy sectors;
- Proactively develop and deploy low-carbon production technologies to mitigate compliance risks arising from carbon market regulation.