Polyester Staple Fiber Market Intelligence Report (May 27, 2026)

I. Price Trends
1. Spot Market
- Shandong Region: As of May 26, the mainstream spot price stood at RMB 7,760–7,800/ton (delivered), with premium-grade supplies (e.g., Yihua, Shihua) quoted at RMB 7,950–8,100/ton—up RMB 10/ton from the previous day.
- National Average Price: The benchmark price was RMB 8,080.67/ton on May 22. However, several producers adjusted quotations downward on May 25: Xiamen Xianglu reduced its price by RMB 250/ton to RMB 7,750/ton; Jiangyin Huahong and Fujian Jinlun followed suit with parallel cuts.
- Futures Market:
- Main futures contract (PFM) closed at RMB 7,584/ton on May 26, down 0.11%; secondary main contract (PFS) closed at RMB 7,520/ton, down 0.45%.
- The main basis (spot minus futures) exhibited notable volatility; the basis rate stood at 4.09% on May 22, indicating that spot prices still commanded a premium over futures.

2. Historical Comparison
- The lowest price in early 2026 occurred in February at RMB 6,612/ton; prices rebounded to the RMB 7,700–8,100/ton range in May, representing a 16–22% increase year-to-date.
- In 2025, prices declined throughout the year—from RMB 7,126.67/ton on January 1 to RMB 6,507.33/ton on December 31—a total decline of 8.69%.

II. Market Drivers
1. Supply Side
- Capacity Adjustment: Industry-wide capacity reduction accelerated in 2025, with over 800,000 tons of obsolete capacity withdrawn. Nevertheless, output remained high in 2026; 2025 production totaled approximately 12.8 million tons, up 4.4% year-on-year.
- Corporate Dynamics: Multiple producers lowered ex-factory prices—including Jiangyin Huahong and Fujian Hangshi Jingwei—reflecting mounting inventory pressure or weak demand.

2. Demand Side
- Downstream Consumption: Spinning accounts for over 65% of total consumption. Domestic demand recovery remains sluggish, while exports have emerged as the primary growth engine. From January to September 2025, export volume reached 1.2626 million tons, up 30.63% year-on-year.
- Substitution Effects: Cotton prices remain elevated (target price for 2026–2028 set at RMB 18,600/ton), potentially supporting polyester staple fiber demand. However, spandex markets are consolidating without delivering clear supportive momentum.

3. Cost Side
- Crude Oil Prices: The average Brent crude oil price in 2025 was USD 68.2/barrel, down 14.64% year-on-year—diminishing cost support.
- PTA Prices: On May 22, the PTA front-month futures price was RMB 5,988/ton, down 0.56%, further compressing polyester staple fiber profit margins.

III. Industry Trends
1. Green Transition: Capacity expansion in recycled polyester staple fiber is accelerating. Benma Group’s annual capacity exceeds 180,000 tons, utilizing approximately 10 billion used plastic bottles annually—aligning with national circular economy policy objectives.
2. Export Orientation: Robust overseas demand has prompted enterprises to actively expand international markets; export share continues rising, serving as the core growth driver for the industry.
3. Technological Upgrading: Companies such as Tianfulong have achieved breakthroughs in recycled colored polyester staple fiber production—delivering low-cost, high-stability outputs capable of meeting customized downstream requirements.

IV. Analysis & Outlook
1. Short Term (1–2 Weeks):
- Price Pressure: A broad-based spot price correction is underway; futures markets remain weak and range-bound. Prices are expected to stabilize between RMB 7,500–7,800/ton, with basis likely narrowing.
- Demand Divergence: Export orders may sustain operating rates for select producers, but domestic spinning demand remains soft, slowing inventory drawdown.

2. Medium Term (1–3 Months):
- Cost Dynamics: A rebound in crude oil prices could lift PTA and, subsequently, polyester staple fiber costs—but final pricing elasticity hinges on the pace of demand recovery.
- Policy Impact: Xinjiang cotton target-price policy (RMB 18,600/ton) may indirectly influence polyester–cotton yarn substitution demand; cotton price fluctuations warrant close monitoring.

3. Long Term (6+ Months):
- Capacity Optimization: Ongoing de-capacity efforts and retirement of outdated facilities may ease supply–demand imbalances, allowing the price floor to gradually rise.
- Green Premium: Market share of recycled polyester staple fiber is expanding; environmentally advantaged producers may gain pricing power, catalyzing structural upgrading across the industry.

V. Forecast & Recommendations
1. Price Forecast:
- Q3 2026 average price is projected to range between RMB 7,600–8,000/ton; if demand improves in Q4, prices could test the RMB 8,200/ton threshold.
- Downside risks—including sharp crude oil price declines or abrupt export order cancellations—must be closely monitored.

2. Strategic Recommendations:
- Producers: Optimize inventory management and deploy futures instruments for hedging against price volatility; intensify R&D investment in recycled polyester staple fiber to enhance product value-added.
- Traders: Explore basis trade opportunities—locking in forward supply when spot premiums are attractive—and expand into emerging export markets such as Southeast Asia.
- Downstream Users: Procure on an as-needed basis; prioritize cost-efficient recycled raw materials; strengthen upstream collaboration to secure stable supply chains.