Adipic Acid Market Intelligence Report (May 27, 2026)

I. Price Trends
1. Benchmark Price: As of May 26, the Business Network’s benchmark price for adipic acid stood at RMB 9,133.33 per metric ton, representing a 0.37% increase from the beginning of May but a daily decline of 1.08%.
2. Recent Volatility:
– Three-month average price: RMB 9,751.48/ton; highest price: RMB 11,033.33/ton; lowest price: RMB 8,266.67/ton.
– 2026 price range: RMB 6,733.33–11,033.33/ton; median price: RMB 8,883.33/ton; current price is near the median level.
3. Regional Price Differentials: Prices in Northern China are stronger than those in the East China region. Major northern producers demonstrate firm pricing intentions, whereas downstream demand absorption capacity in East China remains limited—resulting in a regional price spread of approximately RMB 150–200/ton.

II. Supply-Demand Dynamics
1. Supply Side:
– Capacity: Total domestic adipic acid capacity in 2026 is projected to reach 4.455 million tons/year. Rongsheng New Materials’ new 450,000-ton/year facility is expected to commence operations in H2 2026, intensifying supply surplus pressure.
– Operating Rate: Industry-wide operating rate stands at ~60%. Henan Shenma’s 60,000-ton/year unit is currently offline for maintenance, and its 150,000-ton/year unit is scheduled for maintenance with an uncertain restart timeline.
– Inventory: Factory inventories remain relatively low; port inventories are at neutral levels. Post-holiday logistics recovery may accelerate inventory drawdown.
2. Demand Side:
– Downstream Consumption:
Growth in nylon 66 (PA66) and polybutylene adipate terephthalate (PBAT) sectors—driven by newly commissioned capacities—is the primary source of incremental demand. However, traditional end-use segments (e.g., shoe sole casting resins and coating slurries) operate below 50% capacity utilization, resulting in overall subdued demand.
Post-Spring Festival downstream restocking demand has gradually emerged, yet buyers remain cautious and largely limit purchases to immediate operational needs.
– Exports: In Q1 2026, exports to the EU totaled 11,900 metric tons, accounting for only 10.04% of total exports—down sharply from 22% previously—significantly impacted by EU anti-dumping measures.

III. Cost Drivers
1. Feedstock Benzene:
– Sinopec’s benzene posted price was raised cumulatively by RMB 300/ton to RMB 5,600/ton in mid-January 2026, strengthening cost support.
– Both supply and demand for benzene are expanding, potentially lowering the overall price range; however, timing mismatches between new plant commissioning and demand cycles could lead to a ‘low–high–low’ price trajectory within the year.
2. Price Spread Structure:
– The spread between adipic acid and benzene prices has remained stable at RMB 1,700–1,900/ton—close to the historical average—with limited upside potential.

IV. Market Analysis & Outlook
1. Short-Term Trend:
– Base Case: Balanced interplay between cost support and supply-demand pressures suggests price stability within a narrow band of RMB 6,500–7,500/ton, with volatility unlikely to exceed RMB 500/ton.
– Key Catalysts: Stable benzene pricing and predominantly just-in-time procurement by downstream users reflect modest underlying demand pressure.
2. Risk Scenarios:
– Bullish Case: Escalating geopolitical tensions drive crude oil prices sharply higher, reinforcing benzene cost support; simultaneously, PA66 and PBAT demand recovers faster than anticipated—potentially pushing prices above the RMB 7,500/ton resistance level.
– Bearish Case: Rongsheng’s new facility comes online earlier than scheduled, while downstream demand recovery remains sluggish, triggering rapid inventory accumulation—risking a break below the RMB 6,500/ton support level.

V. Forward Outlook
1. Capacity & Output:
– Domestic production in 2026 is forecast at ~2.8 million tons, with supply-demand imbalance likely worsening following new capacity additions.
2. Demand Growth:
– Newly commissioned PA66 and PBAT facilities represent key growth drivers; however, weak demand from traditional sectors will constrain overall demand expansion.
3. Price Range Forecast:
– The mainstream price range for 2026 is projected at RMB 6,500–7,500/ton. Absent major shifts on the cost or demand front, breakout from this range remains improbable.
4. Industry Structure:
– Industry concentration continues to rise. Leading enterprises—including Hualu Hengsheng and Huafeng Chemical—stand to further expand their market share, leveraging integrated upstream-downstream operations and superior cost control capabilities.