Oleic Acid Market Dynamics Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast

I. Market Dynamics Intelligence

Price Trends
1. High-Purity Oleic Acid
- East China Market: As of May 25, the mainstream reference price for high-purity oleic acid stood at RMB 11,900–12,100 per metric ton (MT), with transactions negotiated on a case-by-case basis; imported drum-packed oleic acid was quoted at RMB 12,800–13,000/MT, with the upper end reflecting select brand premiums. On May 19, East China’s high-purity oleic acid prices declined by RMB 300/MT; prior to that, the mainstream reference price ranged from RMB 12,700–12,900/MT on May 11.
- South China Market: Around May 25, South China’s oleic acid market softened, with high-purity oleic acid (bulk, water-white) trading at a mainstream reference price of RMB 12,400–12,600/MT (case-by-case negotiation); imported drum-packed oleic acid spot prices were RMB 13,300–13,700/MT. On May 14, South China’s oleic acid market traded in a narrow range, with high-purity oleic acid (bulk) priced at RMB 12,700–12,900/MT and imported drum-packed oleic acid at RMB 13,500–14,000/MT. On May 11, high-purity oleic acid (bulk) was stable within RMB 12,800–13,000/MT, while imported drum-packed oleic acid was priced at RMB 13,800–14,200/MT.
2. Other Oleic Acids
- As of May 19, rice bran oleic acid traded at RMB 10,200–10,300/MT and blended oleic acid at RMB 10,000–10,200/MT, both subject to case-by-case negotiation. On May 14, rice bran oleic acid was priced at RMB 10,300–10,400/MT and blended oleic acid at RMB 10,300–10,400/MT.
- As of May 19, soybean-derived oleic acid in East China traded at a mainstream reference price of RMB 10,100–10,300/MT; on May 14, the corresponding price range was RMB 10,300–10,500/MT.

Raw Material Prices
As of around May 25, CIF China palm kernel oil was quoted at USD 2,205 per MT, with raw material prices trading weakly and sideways.

Import/Export Situation
1. Imports: In April 2026, China’s oleic acid import volume totaled 17,042.33 MT—down 2,315.88 MT month-on-month. The average import price stood at USD 1,053.44/MT, a decline of USD 11.19/MT from March. Indonesia accounted for 15,459.66 MT (90.71% share), down 1,718.86 MT MoM, with an average import price of USD 1,029.40/MT (down USD 10.75/MT MoM). Malaysia supplied 1,478.26 MT (8.67% share), down 635.57 MT MoM, with an average import price of USD 1,176.04/MT (down USD 14.26/MT MoM).
2. Exports: In April 2026, China’s oleic acid export volume reached 538.76 MT, up 26.35% MoM. The average export price rose to USD 1,563.19/MT—a USD 139.79/MT increase (9.82% MoM growth). General trade accounted for 95.64% of total exports.

Supply-Demand Balance
Oleic acid production facilities are operating stably; port inventories remain moderate. Overall supply is trending toward looseness, yet downstream demand remains insufficient, with limited procurement activity. To facilitate sales, inventory-holding traders continue offering discounts.

II. Analysis and Assessment

Reasons for Price Decline
1. Weak Raw Material Prices: Soft and sideways trading in key raw materials such as palm kernel oil has eroded cost support for oleic acid, removing upward pricing momentum.
2. Supply-Demand Imbalance: With supply trending looser while downstream demand remains subdued, inventory-holding traders are compelled to offer discounts to stimulate sales—further depressing market prices.

Impact of Import/Export Flows
1. Imports: April’s import volume declined MoM, alongside a drop in average import price—likely attributable to international price volatility and shifting domestic demand. Reduced import volumes may moderately alleviate domestic supply pressure; however, lower import prices could exert downward pressure on domestic pricing.
2. Exports: April’s export volume increased MoM, accompanied by a rise in average export price—indicating enhanced competitiveness of Chinese oleic acid in global markets. Increased exports may absorb some domestic supply, thereby providing modest price support domestically.

III. Outlook

Short-Term Forecast
In the near term, oleic acid prices are expected to remain weak and range-bound. Raw material prices continue trading sideways with limited upside support; production facilities operate steadily, ensuring ample supply; and persistently weak downstream demand is unlikely to improve significantly in the short run. Inventory-holding traders are likely to maintain discounting strategies to expedite sales—making any meaningful price recovery improbable.

Long-Term Forecast
Over the longer term, oleic acid demand is projected to gradually expand, driven by global manufacturing recovery, chemical industry upgrading, and emerging-market demand growth—broadening application scopes. Concurrent advances in production technologies and breakthroughs in raw material recycling and utilization could lower production costs and enhance product value-added. Consequently, oleic acid prices are expected to stabilize and gradually rebound over time—though the actual trajectory will remain subject to multiple factors, including international price fluctuations and domestic policy adjustments.