Acrylonitrile Market Intelligence Report (Recent Dynamics)

I. Price Trends
- Latest Price: As of May 26, 2026, the price of China’s national standard premium-grade acrylonitrile (acrylonitrile mass fraction ≥99.5%) stood at RMB 10,283.33 per metric ton.
- Recent Volatility:
- From May 15 to May 20, acrylonitrile prices remained stable at RMB 10,633.33/ton, representing a 0.95% increase from RMB 10,533.33/ton on May 1.
- After May 20, prices declined to RMB 10,283.33/ton, down 2.37% from the May 1 level.
- Throughout April, prices fell steadily from RMB 11,633.33/ton at the beginning of the month to RMB 10,533.33/ton at month-end—a decline of 9.46%.

II. Supply-Demand Dynamics
- Supply Side:
- Between 2024 and 2025, China added 2.89 million tons/year of new acrylonitrile production capacity, including facilities operated by Zhejiang Petrochemical, Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, and Jilin Petrochemical—resulting in concentrated capacity ramp-ups and increased market supply.
- In May 2026, some units underwent maintenance or operated at reduced load; however, overall plant utilization remained high, and supply pressure had not yet been fully alleviated.
- Demand Side:
- ABS Resin: Accounts for ~50% of acrylonitrile consumption. However, the industry’s average profit in 2024 was -RMB 253/ton, with output declining by 6.83% year-on-year. Although ~3.8 million tons of new ABS capacity are scheduled to come online during 2025–2026, end-market demand (e.g., home appliances, automotive) remains constrained due to sluggish real estate markets, limiting incremental demand.
- Acrylic Fiber (Acrilan): Downstream weaving enterprises’ operating rates fell below 60%, while overseas orders declined by 30% year-on-year—providing insufficient support to acrylonitrile demand.
- Acrylamide: Affected by global economic weakness, traditional application sectors showed minimal demand growth; emerging applications (e.g., environmental protection, water treatment) remain nascent in scale.
- Emerging Applications: High-growth sectors—including carbon fiber and high-performance engineering plastics—are driving robust demand expansion. Acrylonitrile demand in these areas is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 8–12% between 2025 and 2030.

III. Cost and Profitability
- Raw Material Prices: Propylene—the primary raw material for acrylonitrile—is influenced by international crude oil prices, propane supply, and geopolitical factors. In April 2026, the average propylene price in Shandong Province reached RMB 9,201.33/ton, up 13.02% month-on-month.
- Industry Profitability: In May 2022, theoretical acrylonitrile gross margin reached -RMB 1,305/ton, signaling entry into a substantive loss phase for the industry. While integrated producers benefit from lower costs, overall profitability remains severely compressed.

IV. Regional Markets
- East China Region: Port-based market transaction prices ranged between RMB 10,800–11,100/ton; supply remained stable but demand was lackluster.
- Shandong Region: Delivered prices to local customers ranged between RMB 10,650–10,750/ton—slightly lower than East China due to unit maintenance and higher logistics costs.
- Other Regions: Northeast, Central, and Western China currently host relatively limited acrylonitrile capacity; however, coal-to-chemicals and light hydrocarbon cracking projects underway will promote more balanced future regional capacity distribution.

Analysis & Outlook
1. Short-Term Price Pressure:
- Ongoing release of new capacity on the supply side, coupled with depressed operating rates in traditional demand sectors (e.g., ABS, acrylic fiber), has intensified supply-demand imbalance—exerting downward pressure on prices.
- Elevated propylene feedstock prices have not been effectively passed through to downstream, constraining producers’ pricing power and willingness to support prices.

2. Long-Term Demand Divergence:
- Traditional demand sectors show weak growth prospects, whereas emerging applications—including carbon fiber and high-performance resins—present strong growth potential, forming new pillars of market expansion.
- Higher quality requirements from advanced applications necessitate domestic producers to overcome technological bottlenecks and enhance product recognition and acceptance.

3. Intensifying Regional Competition:
- Capacity remains heavily concentrated along China’s eastern seaboard; however, accelerated development of coal chemical projects in central and western regions will drive more rational geographic distribution—and consequently, heightened inter-regional competition.

Forward Projections
1. Price Outlook:
- Short Term (1–3 months): Prices are likely to trade in a weak, range-bound pattern—centered around RMB 10,000–10,500/ton—with possible short-lived rebounds driven by planned maintenance shutdowns and seasonal demand fluctuations.
- Medium Term (6–12 months): Gradual recovery is anticipated as emerging sector demand gains traction—though risks related to propylene price volatility and persistent overcapacity must be closely monitored.
- Long Term (1–3 years): Rapid growth in high-end applications (e.g., carbon fiber) will lift the structural price floor, contingent upon industry-wide technological upgrading and capacity optimization to ensure sustainable development.

2. Supply-Demand Structure:
- Supply Side: New capacities continue entering service, yet industry concentration is rising; leading enterprises are consolidating market positions via integrated operations and competitive advantages in high-value products.
- Demand Side: Growth in traditional segments is slowing, while emerging applications are becoming the primary engine of market expansion.

3. Industry Trends:
- Technological Advancement: Innovations in catalyst systems, purification processes, and digital control systems will improve operational efficiency and reduce costs.
- Green & Low-Carbon Transition: Technologies such as waste heat recovery, green electricity substitution, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) will be increasingly deployed to support decarbonization.
- International Collaboration: Chinese enterprises will expand overseas presence—particularly along the Belt and Road Initiative—by exporting proprietary technologies and engineering services.