Butadiene Market Dynamics Report – Recent Commodity Market Intelligence

I. Price Trends
- Domestic Prices:
- On May 25, 2026, the reference price for butadiene stood at RMB 12,100.00/ton, down 8.33% from RMB 13,200.00/ton on May 1.
- On May 22, the reference price was RMB 12,400.00/ton, down 6.06% from May 1.
- On May 21, the reference price was RMB 12,700.00/ton, down 3.79% from May 1.
- On May 20, the reference price remained unchanged at RMB 12,700.00/ton, also down 3.79% from May 1.
- On May 19, the reference price was RMB 12,633.33/ton, down 4.29% from May 1.
- On May 14, the reference price was RMB 12,800.00/ton, down 3.03% from May 1.
- On May 12, Sinopec East China raised its ex-factory butadiene price by RMB 300/ton to RMB 12,900/ton.
- On May 13, the ex-tank, self-pickup price for butadiene in Jiangyin, Jiangsu Province, ranged approximately between RMB 12,850–12,950/ton, up RMB 150/ton week-on-week.
- On May 19, Sinopec East China’s ex-factory butadiene price remained stable at RMB 13,000/ton.

- International Prices:
- As of May 19, the Asian butadiene market closed flat: Korea FOB at USD 1,665–1,673/ton; China CFR at USD 1,665–1,673/ton.
- As of May 19, European butadiene prices: Rotterdam FOB at USD 1,390–1,398/ton; Northwest Europe FD at EUR 1,365–1,373/ton.

II. Market Dynamics
- Supply Situation:
- Recent maintenance shutdowns at certain domestic plants have reduced available external sales volumes, providing modest bottom support to the market in the short-to-medium term.
- On May 19, bidding and sales activities at select domestic butadiene producers showed: Dongming Petrochemical offered 168 tons for external sale with a reserve price of RMB 12,800/ton; Satellite Chemical offered 224 tons with an opening bid of RMB 12,300/ton.

- Demand Situation:
- Downstream enterprises’ capacity utilization rates are recovering gradually; under prevailing demand-driven procurement, pricing negotiations are expected to remain largely stable.
- The SBS and ABS sectors continue operating at a loss, resulting in downstream end-users’ resistance to significant price increases.
- On May 20, the styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) market in East China traded in a narrow range, with international crude oil markets oscillating at elevated levels and traders adjusting quotations modestly and steadily.

- Market Sentiment:
- Traders remain cautious in entering the market; overall, the market is expected to maintain a narrow-range consolidation pattern in the near term.
- Bearish sentiment persists externally—geopolitical tensions have eased while energy-related sanctions remain in place, significantly constraining upward momentum in pricing.

III. Analysis & Assessment
- Reasons for Price Volatility:
- Supply Side: Plant maintenance has curtailed supply, offering some supportive floor to prices.
- Demand Side: Although downstream capacity utilization is rising slowly, end-user procurement remains resistant to sharp price hikes, resulting in limited demand follow-through.
- Market Sentiment: Trader caution and generally subdued sentiment have contributed to restrained price fluctuations.

- Market Outlook:
- In the short term, the butadiene market is expected to remain in a narrow-range consolidation phase, with limited price volatility.
- Over the medium to long term, evolving supply-demand dynamics—driven by new capacity commissioning and changes in import volumes—may shift market fundamentals; further observation will be required to assess price direction.

IV. Forecast
- Price Forecast:
- In the short term, butadiene prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly within the range of RMB 12,000–13,000/ton.
- Over the medium to long term, if new production capacity comes online smoothly and import volumes remain high, downward price pressure may emerge; conversely, a marked rebound in downstream demand or unexpected supply disruptions could drive prices higher.

- Key Market Watchpoints:
- Progress of new capacity commissioning and changes in import volumes.
- Improvement in downstream capacity utilization rates and shifts in end-user procurement willingness.
- Developments in international crude oil markets and geopolitical developments affecting the butadiene market.