$11 Billion, Takeda’s New Engine

Recently, Takeda announced its fiscal year 2024 results. The company’s total revenue reached 216 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year growth of 7.5% according to reported data. The main growth drivers were in the fields of gastrointestinal diseases, rare diseases, and oncology. The flagship product, the inflammatory bowel disease drug vedolizumab, achieved revenue of approximately 43 billion yuan (accounting for 20% of Takeda’s total revenue), growing 14% year over year.

Notably, while Takeda’s revenue grew steadily, net profit declined by 25%. Beyond ongoing cost reductions, the key to helping the company enter a profit cycle is to launch truly differentiated new products that bolster performance. For this reason, Takeda has adjusted its resource allocation, including multiple pipeline changes, cutting 4 early-stage pipelines, and focusing future efforts on advancing TAK-121, TAK-861, and TAK-279 pipelines. According to Takeda’s forecasts, the combined peak sales of these three pipelines are expected to reach $11 billion, becoming the new engine for future growth.

TAK-279 Peak Sales $6 Billion

TAK-279 (Zasocitinib) is a highly selective oral TYK2 inhibitor used to treat moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis. TYK2 mediates signaling downstream of the IL-12/23 receptor, and allosteric inhibitors offer high selectivity advantages, avoiding side effects such as cancer and thrombosis caused by the poor selectivity of first-generation JAK inhibitors.

In 2022, the world’s first TYK2 inhibitor, BMS’s Deucravacitinib, was approved by the FDA for the treatment of moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis. According to data, in the PSO-1 trial, at week 16, the PASI75 rate in the 30mg group was 58%, and PASI90 was 36%; in the PSO-2 trial, at week 16, the PASI75 rate was 53%, and PASI90 was 72% in the 30mg group.

Based on phase II clinical trial results for Zasocitinib, at week 12, PASI75 rates for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis patients treated once daily with 5mg, 15mg, and 30mg were 44%, 68%, and 67%, respectively. This suggests that 30mg Zasocitinib has the potential to be more effective compared to Deucravacitinib.

In 2024, Deucravacitinib’s sales reached $250 million, a 45% year-over-year increase, showing a positive growth trend. Phase III clinical data for Zasocitinib is expected in the second half of 2025. Takeda predicts Zasocitinib’s peak sales could reach $6 billion.

Besides psoriasis, BMS is also expanding Deucravacitinib’s treatment potential to Sj?gren’s syndrome and lupus. Similarly, Takeda is developing Zasocitinib for psoriatic arthritis and planning differentiated indications such as ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease, two common autoimmune diseases.

TAK-861 Peak Sales $3 Billion

TAK-861 (Oveporexton) is an oral orexin 2 receptor (OX2R) agonist for treating narcolepsy type 1 (NT1). NT1 is a neurological hypersomnia disorder caused by the loss of orexin neurons, leading to low orexin neuropeptide levels and symptoms including excessive daytime sleepiness and disrupted nighttime sleep. Oveporexton aims to selectively stimulate orexin receptors to address orexin deficiency. Currently, there are no effective drug treatments for NT1, and symptoms often persist even with multiple medications. Oveporexton is expected to become the first oral OX2R agonist targeting the fundamental pathology and physiology of NT1.

Last year, Takeda announced phase II trial results for Oveporexton showing that at week 8, compared with placebo, all dose groups had significant increases in Maintenance of Wakefulness Test (MWT) sleep latency, with improvements lasting over 6 months. Secondary endpoints, including the Epworth Sleepiness Scale and weekly cataplexy rate (WCR), also showed sustained improvements.

Phase III clinical data for Oveporexton is expected in the first half of 2025. Takeda forecasts peak sales could reach $3 billion. In fact, Takeda is developing multiple orexin-based products; besides Oveporexton, another OX2R agonist TAK-360 for type 2 narcolepsy and idiopathic hypersomnia is in phase II clinical trials.

TAK-121 Peak Sales $2 Billion

TAK-121 (Rusfertide) is a peptide mimetic of the natural hormone hepcidin, used to treat polycythemia vera.

Patients with polycythemia vera have an increased risk of fatal cardiovascular events and thrombosis. Many require regular phlebotomy treatments to control blood volume elevated by excess red blood cells.

Rusfertide’s phase III clinical trial met its primary endpoint. During weeks 20-32, the clinical response rate was 77% in the Rusfertide group versus 33% in placebo, with the primary endpoint defined as patients not requiring phlebotomy.

Rusfertide is expected to file for approval in the US in the second half of 2025. Takeda predicts its peak sales could reach $2 billion.

Other Pipeline Adjustments

In addition to focusing resources on the above key pipelines, Takeda has cut 4 early-stage R&D pipelines:

• TAK-186, an EGFR/CD3 bispecific antibody for solid tumors, in phase II;
• TAK-062, an enzyme therapy for celiac disease, in phase II;
• TAK-676, a STING agonist for solid tumors, in phase II;
• TAK-280, a CD3/B7-H3 bispecific antibody for solid tumors, in phase I.

Takeda is reallocating resources to focus on late-stage pipelines with the potential to generate billions in sales, strengthening the competitiveness of its marketed product portfolio. This strategic shift marks a critical turning point for Takeda’s move toward profitable growth.