PET Recent Commodity Market Dynamics, Analysis, and Forecast

I. Price Trends
1. Spot Prices: PET spot prices have recently exhibited a volatile upward trend. From April 22 to April 28, 2026, PET spot prices rose slightly on a week-on-week basis, reaching a benchmark price of RMB 9,237.50 per ton on April 28—marking a significant increase from the beginning of the month. In May, prices experienced fluctuations but remained generally elevated. For example, the Business Society’s PET benchmark price stood at RMB 8,750.00 per ton on May 20, rose to RMB 8,935.00 per ton on May 22, and returned to RMB 8,750.00 per ton on May 25.
2. Futures Market: Trading activity in the futures market has been robust; trading volume for the March bottle-grade PET contract surged by 488.99% year-on-year, while turnover increased dramatically by 665.31%, reflecting optimistic market expectations regarding future PET prices.

II. Cost Drivers
1. Crude Oil Prices: International crude oil prices remain volatile, directly impacting PET production costs. In June 2026, WTI crude oil prices rose to USD 95.85 per barrel, while Brent crude oil prices climbed to USD 105.07 per barrel. This upward movement in crude oil prices is transmitted along the petrochemical value chain, elevating PET production costs.
2. Upstream Feedstocks: Purified terephthalic acid (PTA) and ethylene glycol (EG), the two primary upstream feedstocks for PET, are also significantly influenced by crude oil prices. Although PTA and EG prices have fluctuated recently, their overall trend remains supported by higher crude oil prices. For instance, on May 13, the front-month PTA futures contract was quoted at RMB 6,362.00, down RMB 82.00 (–1.27%); the front-month EG futures contract was quoted at RMB 4,830.00, up RMB 12.00 (+0.25%).

III. Supply-Demand Dynamics
1. Supply Side: PET preform manufacturing capacity is highly concentrated regionally, with pronounced economies of scale. Some enterprises have enhanced supply capacity through technological upgrades and capacity expansions. Nevertheless, supply may still face constraints due to rapidly growing downstream demand.
2. Demand Side: Downstream beverage industries continue to demonstrate steady growth in PET bottle demand—particularly in packaged drinking water and carbonated soft drinks. Concurrently, heightened consumer awareness and emphasis on environmental sustainability and circular economy principles are gradually boosting demand for recycled PET (rPET).

IV. Policy and Environmental Impacts
1. Environmental Regulations: Globally, intensified efforts to combat plastic pollution are accelerating the development of the rPET industry. Countries including China have introduced a series of policies encouraging the use of recycled materials and restricting the production and consumption of virgin plastics.
2. Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR): The broader implementation of EPR schemes obliges brand owners to assume environmental responsibility across the entire product lifecycle, thereby further incentivizing investment in collection and recycling infrastructure and procurement of recycled materials.

V. Analysis and Assessment
1. Persistent Cost Pressure: Volatility in crude oil prices will continue exerting cost pressure on PET production. PET prices are expected to remain elevated in the near term. Meanwhile, PTA and EG prices—also sensitive to crude oil fluctuations—will further transmit cost pressures to the PET market.
2. Tightening Supply-Demand Balance: Sustained growth in downstream beverage demand, coupled with rising rPET demand, is likely to tighten the overall PET supply-demand balance. Although supply-side capacity expansion is underway, it may still lag behind rapid demand growth, potentially leading to supply shortfalls.
3. Regulatory-Driven Industry Transformation: Stricter environmental regulations will drive the PET industry toward greener and more sustainable development pathways. Application of rPET is expected to expand significantly. Enterprises must intensify investments in rPET research, development, and production capabilities to meet both market demands and regulatory requirements.

VI. Forecast
1. Price Trend Forecast: PET prices are projected to remain elevated in the short term, driven by crude oil price volatility and tightening supply-demand dynamics. Over the longer term, as rPET technologies mature and production costs decline, rPET’s price competitiveness will progressively strengthen—potentially exerting downward pressure on virgin PET prices.
2. Supply-Demand Forecast: Downstream demand is expected to sustain stable growth, especially in packaged water and carbonated soft drink applications. On the supply side, stakeholders must closely monitor capacity expansion progress and raw material supply stability to adequately respond to surging demand.
3. Industry Development Trend Forecast: The rPET sector is poised for rapid growth, with technological breakthroughs and cost reductions serving as key drivers. Adoption of digital supply chain management and intelligent manufacturing technologies will enhance operational efficiency and lower production costs. Continued tightening of environmental regulations will accelerate the industry’s transition toward green, sustainable development—requiring enterprises to significantly increase investments in environmental protection and sustainability initiatives.