Analysis of Recent Market Dynamics for Calcined Petroleum Coke (CPC)

I. Market Dynamics Intelligence
1. Price Trends
- Recent Price Fluctuations: In May 2026, CPC prices exhibited a slight downward trend. From May 1 to May 18, CPC prices remained stable at RMB 2,700 per metric ton; from May 19 to May 25, prices declined to RMB 2,650 per metric ton—a 1.85% decrease from the beginning of the month.
- Historical Price Comparison: Compared with March 2026, CPC prices experienced a significant increase followed by a modest correction. Prices stood at RMB 2,450 per metric ton at the beginning of March, rose to RMB 2,750 per metric ton on March 24 (a 12.24% increase), and subsequently fluctuated within the RMB 2,700–2,750 per metric ton range.

2. Supply-Demand Conditions
- Supply Side: National commercial CPC daily output remains stable at approximately 27,572 metric tons, with an operating rate maintained at 65.20%; overall market supply volume is unchanged compared to the previous business day.
- Demand Side: Primary application areas for CPC include anode materials for aluminum electrolytic cells, raw material for graphite electrodes, and manufacturing of new-energy materials. As aluminum electrolysis capacity approaches its policy-imposed ceiling, growth has slowed to 0.9%. Meanwhile, lithium-ion battery anode materials remain highly active; however, accelerated vertical integration among leading enterprises has led to a temporary decline in externally procured CPC volumes.

3. Regional Markets
- Regional Price Differentials: CPC prices show regional divergence. The average price for standard metallurgical-grade CPC in the East China region is RMB 5,720 per metric ton, while the same grade in the Northwest region averages RMB 5,490 per metric ton—a price gap of RMB 230 per metric ton.
- Production Capacity Layout: Regional capacity deployment reflects a new pattern of “growth in the West, stability in the East, and contraction in the South.” Leveraging abundant green electricity resources, Ningxia and Qinghai provinces have completed 12 green-electricity-based calcination projects; average carbon footprint has decreased by 22.3%, waste-heat power generation coverage has reached 61%, and the share of direct green-electricity supply has surged from 14.2% in 2023 to 38.7% in 2025.

4. Policy Impacts
- Environmental Regulations: The Ministry of Ecology and Environment’s Notice on Further Optimizing Environmental Impact Assessment Management for Carbon Industry Projects stipulates that all newly constructed CPC projects must be equipped with coke dry quenching (CDQ) systems and integrated flue-gas desulfurization & denitrification units. Unit product comprehensive energy consumption must not exceed 285 kg standard coal per metric ton—representing a 9.2% reduction relative to the 2024 baseline value.
- Industrial Policies: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), jointly with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), issued the Key New Materials First-Batch Application Demonstration Guidance Catalogue (2025 Edition), which—for the first time—classifies high-purity, low-metal-impurity, high-tap-density specialty calcined petroleum coke as a critical strategic material. A supporting insurance compensation mechanism has been introduced, offering premium subsidies of up to RMB 30 million for enterprises purchasing first-of-a-kind, first-batch applications.

II. Analytical Assessment
1. Price Trend Analysis
- Short-Term Volatility: The recent minor price decline primarily stems from adjustments in supply-demand dynamics. Slowing growth in aluminum electrolysis capacity and accelerated vertical integration among leading lithium-ion battery anode material producers have weakened demand momentum, exerting downward pressure on prices.
- Long-Term Trend: Over the longer term, CPC prices will be influenced by multiple factors including production costs, supply-demand balance, and regulatory policies. Stricter environmental regulations and supportive industrial policies will sustain growing demand for premium CPC products, driving upward price movement.

2. Supply-Demand Analysis
- Supply Side: Implementation of stricter environmental standards and industry upgrading will accelerate the phase-out of outdated production capacity and elevate industry concentration. Leading enterprises will consolidate market positions through technological upgrades and scale expansion, thereby enhancing supply capabilities.
- Demand Side: Growth in CPC demand will increasingly rely on expansion into high-end application domains—particularly new-energy materials manufacturing. Continued expansion of electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage markets will sustain robust CPC demand growth. Concurrently, traditional applications—including anode materials for aluminum electrolysis and graphite electrode feedstock—will maintain steady growth.

3. Regional Market Analysis
- Regional Divergence: Regional price differentiation in CPC markets is expected to intensify further. With abundant green electricity resources, the Northwest region is poised to become a major CPC production base, offering relatively lower pricing; whereas East China’s stronger demand and higher logistics costs will support comparatively elevated price levels.
- Capacity Layout: Future CPC industry capacity deployment will become more rationalized, reinforcing the “growth in the West, stability in the East, contraction in the South” pattern. This optimization will enhance resource allocation efficiency and bolster overall industry competitiveness.

III. Forecasts
1. Price Forecast
- Short-Term Outlook: In the near term, CPC prices are expected to remain broadly stable with minor fluctuations, continuing to reflect ongoing supply-demand rebalancing—potentially trending slightly downward or holding steady.
- Long-Term Outlook: Over the long term, CPC prices are projected to rise, driven by expanding high-end applications and tightening environmental regulations. Notably, premium CPC products—characterized by high technical barriers and strong market demand—are expected to experience disproportionately higher price appreciation.

2. Supply-Demand Forecast
- Supply Outlook: Overall CPC supply capacity will continue to expand, albeit at a gradually moderating pace. Leading enterprises will strengthen market leadership via technology-driven upgrades and scale expansion, while smaller-scale producers face increasing pressure to exit or consolidate.
- Demand Outlook: CPC demand growth will be anchored primarily in high-end application sectors—especially new-energy materials manufacturing. Expanding EV and energy storage markets will sustain robust demand growth. Simultaneously, demand from traditional sectors—including aluminum electrolytic anodes and graphite electrode feedstocks—will maintain steady growth.

3. Industry Trend Forecast
- Technological Advancement: The CPC industry will accelerate technological upgrading and structural transformation. Leading firms will intensify R&D investment to foster innovation and commercialize new technologies. Furthermore, enhanced collaboration across upstream and downstream segments will strengthen integrated supply chain competitiveness.
- Green and Low-Carbon Transition: Amid increasingly stringent environmental regulations and global emphasis on green, low-carbon development, the CPC industry will expedite its green transition. Enterprises will adopt clean energy sources, optimize production processes, reduce emissions and energy intensity, and advance waste treatment and resource recycling initiatives.