Recent Market Dynamics of Polyester FDY

I. Market Price Trends
- Benchmark Price: As of May 26, 2026, the Business Society’s benchmark price for polyester FDY stood at RMB 9,011.67 per metric ton.
- Recent Price Movement:
- On May 22, the reference price for polyester FDY was RMB 9,028.33/ton, representing a 1.63% decline from RMB 9,178.33/ton on May 1.
- From May 11 to May 12, the price fell from RMB 9,178.33/ton to RMB 9,153.33/ton—a drop of 0.27%; by May 12, the cumulative decline had widened to 1.46%.
- Between May 14 and May 22, prices fluctuated within a narrow range of RMB 9,020–9,045/ton, reflecting an overall weak and downward trend.

II. Market Analysis
- Cost Side:
- PTA prices—impacted by geopolitical tensions and plant maintenance—were estimated to average RMB 6,650/ton in May; ethylene glycol averaged RMB 4,750/ton. Polymerization costs continue to provide some support to polyester FDY pricing, though this support is gradually weakening.
- In late May, reduced PTA maintenance activity and increased supply are expected to further erode cost-side support.
- Supply-Demand Dynamics:
- Supply: Short-filament producers proactively lowered operating rates in May; however, restart expectations for polyester FDY production lines are rising, suggesting a gradual increase in supply.
- Demand: End-market textile and apparel orders remain scarce; domestic demand continues to weaken. High temperatures have suppressed downstream operating rates—spinning mills’ utilization rates have hovered at low levels with volatility, while weaving enterprises have voluntarily cut output, failing to stimulate upstream raw material demand.
- Inventory: Industry-wide inventory accumulation persists at a modest pace, with seasonal inventory pressure intensifying during the off-season.
- Market Sentiment:
- Price cuts initiated by industry leaders have accelerated broad market declines. The confluence of weakening cost support and persistently sluggish end-demand has undermined market confidence.
- On May 25, the average price discount (i.e., market price vs. benchmark price) narrowed further into negative territory, reaching –RMB 49.58/ton—indicating pronounced downward price pressure.

III. Outlook and Assessment
- Short Term (1–2 weeks):
- Price Trend: Weakening cost support, loose supply-demand conditions, and elevated inventories are likely to sustain the downward price trend. The average price in the East China region is expected to breach the RMB 9,000/ton threshold.
- Price Range: RMB 8,900–9,050/ton. Close attention should be paid to short-term cost fluctuations arising from geopolitical risks or unexpected PTA plant outages.
- Medium Term (1–2 months):
- Off-Season Pressure: June and July represent the peak of the traditional textile off-season. With continued weak demand and ample supply, prices may decline further to the RMB 8,800–8,900/ton range.
- Risk Factors: A significant escalation in geopolitical conflict—triggering a sharp rebound in crude oil prices—could briefly bolster cost-side support. However, absent meaningful improvement in end-demand, any upside potential for prices remains limited.
- Long Term (3–6 months):
- Demand Recovery Outlook: As the traditional peak season (“Golden September and Silver October”) approaches, a marginal improvement in end-market orders could trigger a short-term price rebound. However, the magnitude of such a rebound will depend critically on the strength of demand recovery and the pace of inventory drawdown.
- Industry Trends: Green transformation, intelligent manufacturing, and integrated vertical industrial chains are emerging as core development directions for the polyester FDY sector. Inefficient capacity is being phased out at an accelerated pace, and industry concentration is expected to rise further.