SBS Rubber Market Dynamics Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast

I. Market Dynamics Intelligence
1. Price Trends
Recent SBS rubber prices have exhibited a volatile pattern. For example, in May 2026, the price stood at RMB 14,700/ton on May 8, with the overall May price range fluctuating between RMB 11,500–17,665/ton, reflecting alternating gains and losses across different periods. On May 21, the benchmark SBS rubber futures price was RMB 17,345.00/ton, down RMB 180/ton (a decline of 1.03%) from the previous day.

2. Supply Situation
- Domestic Production: SBS output in China grew significantly in 2025. Cumulative production from January to October reached approximately 799,400 tons, an increase of about 178,600 tons year-on-year (YoY), representing a growth rate of 28.77%. Full-year production is projected to exceed 950,000 tons. Output in October 2025 is forecast at 85,200 tons—up 1.82% month-on-month (MoM) and 16.18% YoY. Additionally, two new SBS production facilities are scheduled to commence operations in the second half of 2025: a 140,000-ton/year unit at Shanghai Jinshan Baling (planned for August) and an 80,000-ton/year unit at Guangxi Petrochemical (planned for October), further augmenting market supply.
- Imports: From January to May 2025, China’s total SBS imports amounted to 35,700 tons, up 5% YoY. The majority originated from a European country; notably, import volumes were relatively high in February and March, exerting downward pressure on domestic prices due to concentrated supply growth.

3. Demand Situation
- Domestic Demand: Domestic SBS demand in the first half of 2025 fell short of expectations, heavily impacted by macroeconomic headwinds and tariff-related disruptions. In road asphalt modification applications, China’s highway and waterway transportation fixed-asset investment totaled RMB 94.77 billion from January to May 2025—a 7.7% YoY decline—of which highway construction investment reached RMB 86.07 billion, down 9.6% YoY. Delays in fund disbursement for certain expressway projects led to passive postponements, dampening SBS demand in this sector. In other downstream segments, ongoing U.S.-China tariff tensions in April affected exports of SBS, related shoe materials, and finished footwear. Although China’s total SBS exports from January to May rose 10.69% YoY, April saw a negative growth rate, with a 12.58% MoM decline.
- Exports: With infrastructure investment recovering across Southeast Asia and new integrated refining & petrochemical projects coming online in the Middle East, SBS rubber exports in 2026 are projected to reach 128,000 tons—up 8.5% YoY. At the current FOB average price of RMB 16,800/ton, this will generate export revenue of approximately RMB 215 million.

4. Feedstock Market
- Butadiene: In the first half of 2025, the butadiene market experienced pronounced volatility, largely influenced by the cis-polybutadiene rubber futures market, with average prices in the East China region declining notably during Q1. In the second half of 2025, domestic butadiene prices are expected to trend downward amid easing supply constraints; fundamental support for pricing is gradually weakening. The Jiangsu-Zhejiang regional butadiene price is forecast to trade within RMB 7,500–10,000/ton, peaking near the end of Q3 and bottoming out near year-end.
- Styrene: Its price volatility has intensified, exerting notable influence on both SBS production costs and final product pricing.

II. Analytical Assessment
1. Drivers of Price Volatility
- Supply-Demand Dynamics: On the supply side, robust domestic output growth—fueled by continuous commissioning of new capacity—and rising imports have collectively increased aggregate market supply. On the demand side, domestic consumption remains subdued due to macroeconomic uncertainty and tariff pressures. While export demand shows modest growth, overall supply-demand fundamentals continue to weigh on prices, contributing to downward pressure and heightened volatility.
- Feedstock Pricing: Fluctuations in butadiene and styrene prices directly affect SBS production costs and thus its market pricing. For instance, the downward trend in butadiene prices has reinforced bearish sentiment in the SBS market, contributing to price declines.
- Policy Factors: Government policies also shape the SBS market landscape. For example, the “14th Five-Year Plan” includes highway expansion and reconstruction projects, offering some underlying support for demand in road asphalt modification. However, delays in funding implementation constrain actual demand realization.

2. Competitive Landscape
- Industry Concentration: China’s SBS industry exhibits high concentration, with leading enterprises dominating supply. In 2025, the top five producers collectively accounted for 68.3% of national total capacity—up 5.2 percentage points from 2023. These industry leaders have strengthened advantages in grade development, customer relationship management, and raw material procurement negotiation power. New entrants face triple barriers: technological complexity, lengthy environmental approval cycles, and stringent downstream certification requirements.
- Profit Divergence Across Products: Gross margins for standard linear SBS grades have compressed to 8.2%–9.5%, whereas premium variants—including star-branched SBS and hydrogenated SBS (SEBS)—maintain gross margins of 22.6%–26.4%, underscoring value creation opportunities enabled by technological advancement.

III. Forecast
1. Price Outlook
- Short Term: SBS rubber prices are expected to remain volatile in the near term. On the cost front, butadiene prices may trend lower, though a potential rebound toward the end of Q3—driven by temporary supply tightness—could offer limited upward support to SBS pricing. On the supply-demand front, sustained domestic capacity additions and muted near-term demand recovery will likely cap upside potential, keeping prices under persistent pressure.
- Long Term: As industry-wide technology upgrades accelerate and high-end grades gain broader adoption—alongside continued export market expansion—SBS prices could stabilize and gradually rise over the longer horizon, contingent upon a meaningful recovery in domestic demand. Key risks to monitor include crude oil price volatility (impacting feedstock costs) and evolving environmental regulations.

2. Supply-Demand Outlook
- Supply: SBS supply in China is expected to sustain growth over the medium term, as newly commissioned facilities add incremental capacity. Import volumes may adjust dynamically based on arbitrage opportunities between domestic and international markets and shifts in trade policy.
- Demand: Domestically, demand in traditional downstream sectors—including road asphalt modification and footwear—stands to recover gradually, supported by advancing national infrastructure initiatives and improving macroeconomic conditions. Moreover, accelerated substitution by biodegradable thermoplastic elastomers is driving expanded application of SBS in high-value-added niches, thereby broadening segment-specific market potential. Export demand will likely remain robust, underpinned by infrastructure-led growth in Southeast Asia and expanding petrochemical integration in the Middle East, sustaining export volume growth.

3. Competitive Evolution
- Industry Concentration: Market concentration is poised to deepen further, as industry leaders leverage technological and cost advantages to expand market share. Smaller-scale players will face intensifying competitive pressure; some may pursue survival strategies including R&D-driven innovation, product differentiation, or strategic partnerships with leading firms.
- Product-Level Competition: Competition in premium-grade SBS products will become increasingly intense, prompting enterprises to ramp up R&D investment to enhance quality, performance, and application-specific functionality—meeting growing demand for high-value-added solutions. Meanwhile, competition among standard linear SBS offerings will grow fiercer, compelling manufacturers to focus on cost optimization and production efficiency improvements to preserve market position.