EVA Market Intelligence Report – Recent Dynamics

I. Price Dynamics
- Overall Price Range: In May 2026, the EVA market quotation ranged from RMB 10,930 to 14,800 per metric ton, reflecting regional and grade-specific variations. Photovoltaic (PV) grade EVA was priced at RMB 12,000–12,200/ton—significantly lower than general-purpose grades.
- Price Trend: The EVA market continues its downward trajectory, with prices persisting in decline. As of May 25, the Base Price Index published by Shengyishe stood at RMB 11,183.33/ton, down 13.64% from the beginning of the month.
- Regional Price Differentials: In the East China region, foaming rigid-grade EVA was quoted at RMB 10,930–11,100/ton, while soft-grade material ranged from RMB 11,300–12,000/ton; in Dongguan, Formosa Plastics’ grade 7470M was quoted at RMB 10,600–11,000/ton, whereas Taiwan Plastic’s same-grade material fetched RMB 12,900–13,500/ton; imported spot cargoes included Thailand’s TPI N8038 (RMB 12,300–12,800/ton, currently in short supply) and YV1055 (RMB 14,300–14,800/ton).

II. Supply-Demand Situation
- Supply Side: Domestic plant operating rates remain high; previously scheduled maintenance units have gradually resumed production, resulting in ample market supply. Although some petrochemical facilities are undergoing planned shutdowns for maintenance, overall supply pressure remains pronounced.
- Demand Side: Order intake from key downstream sectors—including PV and footwear—remains lackluster. PV encapsulant manufacturers are purchasing strictly on a just-in-time (JIT) basis. Downstream factories continue digesting existing inventories, while traders quote actively; most manufacturers have adopted a wait-and-see stance, limiting procurement to essential, immediate needs only.

III. Cost Factors
- Crude Oil Prices: Although crude oil prices remain elevated, domestic ethylene and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) prices have retreated from recent highs, alleviating production cost pressures.

Analysis & Outlook

I. Short-Term Market Trend
- Continued Weakness: In the near term, the EVA market is expected to sustain its weak performance, with prices potentially converging further toward general-purpose grade levels. Increased PV-grade supply—coupled with uncertain order visibility—will exert additional downward pressure on pricing.
- Supply-Demand Imbalance: Ample supply contrasts sharply with tepid demand, intensifying the structural imbalance and driving continued price erosion.

II. Medium- to Long-Term Market Outlook
- Capacity Expansion: Over the next two years, multiple new or proposed EVA production projects are underway in China—including those by Ningxia Baofeng Energy and Zhongke (Guangdong) Petrochemical. Overall EVA supply is projected to remain at normal-to-slightly-elevated levels, intensifying competitive dynamics across the sector.
- Demand Growth: The photovoltaic industry remains the primary end-user. Despite mounting export barriers and domestic grid-integration challenges, China’s installed PV capacity is forecast to reach 300 GW in 2025—a 15% year-on-year increase—providing tangible support for EVA demand. Meanwhile, traditional sectors—including foamed footwear and coating applications—are expected to sustain low-growth demand patterns.
- Downward Shift in Price Center: Absent meaningful improvement in supply-demand fundamentals, the EVA price center is likely to shift further downward. However, given that current prices have already reached cyclical lows—and considering ongoing PV-driven demand support—substantial further declines appear unlikely.

Forecast

I. Price Forecast
- Short-Term Prices: EVA prices will remain under pressure in the near term, with PV-grade pricing possibly narrowing further toward general-purpose levels. Nevertheless, constraints imposed by production costs and evolving supply-demand dynamics suggest limited room for steep price reductions.
- Medium- to Long-Term Prices: Looking ahead, progressive commissioning of new capacity and intensifying competition are expected to drive the overall EVA price center lower. Concurrently, steady PV-sector demand growth and stable consumption from traditional industries will provide a floor of support.

II. Strategic Recommendations
- For Producers: Closely monitor real-time market developments and supply-demand shifts; flexibly adjust production plans to mitigate volatility exposure. Simultaneously, strengthen cost control and accelerate product technology upgrades to enhance competitiveness.
- For Downstream Users: Maintain a cautiously optimistic stance, aligning procurement strategies with evolving demand conditions and price trends. Strengthen communication and collaboration with upstream suppliers to ensure supply chain resilience and stability.