Paraffin Wax Recent Commodity Market Intelligence Report

I. Price Dynamics
- Domestic Prices: Recently, domestic paraffin wax prices have exhibited volatility. Taking the mainstream grade 58# paraffin wax as an example, prices increased cumulatively by RMB 1,400–1,750 per ton in Q1 2026, peaking in late March at an average price of RMB 8,306.7 per ton. In Q2, the upward momentum moderated, market trading activity cooled somewhat, and the premium range for transactions narrowed.
- International Prices: The global refined paraffin wax market sales continue to grow, projected to reach USD 27.19 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.9%. Internationally, refined paraffin wax prices range between USD 800 and USD 1,400 per ton, with a gross margin of approximately 17%.

II. Supply-Demand Situation
- Supply:
- Domestic supply has maintained steady growth, with a five-year CAGR of 2.73%. From January to November 2024, domestic paraffin wax production totaled 1.5064 million tons, up by 54,000 tons (a 3.72% increase year-on-year).
- Domestic paraffin wax resources are concentrated primarily at refineries owned by PetroChina and Sinopec, with PetroChina refineries maintaining high output levels.
- Recently, some refinery units underwent maintenance or relocation, causing temporary supply constraints; however, overall supply remains stable.
- Demand:
- Domestic demand growth has slowed, registering a five-year CAGR of ?0.46%. Total paraffin wax consumption in 2024 is expected to remain around 1.54 million tons, representing a 4.64% year-on-year decline.
- Candle-grade paraffin accounts for the largest end-use segment, comprising 40–47% of total consumption. However, EU anti-dumping duties and other trade barriers have dampened candle exports, thereby suppressing paraffin demand.
- Traditional application sectors—including packaging, rubber, and tires—maintain stable demand, though growth rates have flattened.
- Emerging applications—such as cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and new energy—show gradual demand growth, helping absorb excess production capacity, although their current share remains relatively small.

III. Import-Export Situation
- Exports:
- China is one of the world’s largest paraffin wax exporters, with exports accounting for 45–50% of total domestic production. From January to February 2026, China’s paraffin wax exports amounted to 107,500 tons—representing 42% of total production—and rose 5.84% year-on-year.
- Major export destinations include Southeast Asia, Mexico, and Poland. Notably, Southeast Asia has emerged as the second-largest market absorbing China’s surplus paraffin capacity.
- Export markets face challenges stemming from trade frictions and shifting demand patterns.
- Imports:
- China’s paraffin wax imports are minimal and exert negligible influence on overall supply. Imported supplies mainly originate from Malaysia and Japan.

IV. Related Product Market Dynamics
- Chlorinated Paraffin: The domestic chlorinated paraffin market has remained stable recently. Prices for eco-friendly 52# chlorinated paraffin hold steady at RMB 5,300–5,500 per ton, while high-viscosity grades trade at RMB 5,000–5,200 per ton. Robust raw material pricing provides strong cost support; however, weak seasonal demand and subdued downstream purchasing intent constrain market momentum.

Analysis & Outlook

I. Price Trend
- Short-term: Ongoing supply-demand balancing will sustain price volatility. Cost support, speculative sentiment, and procurement difficulty will continue influencing price movements.
- Long-term: With expanding demand from emerging applications and steady demand from traditional sectors, paraffin wax prices are expected to trend gradually upward. Nevertheless, close attention must be paid to external factors—including international trade environment shifts and crude oil price fluctuations—that may impact pricing.

II. Supply-Demand Structure
- Supply: Domestic paraffin wax output is expected to maintain stable growth, though occasional refinery maintenance or relocations may cause localized short-term disruptions. Overall, supply remains abundant.
- Demand: Domestic demand growth is expected to remain modest, with emerging applications serving as the primary growth driver. Although export markets face headwinds, Southeast Asia and other emerging regions present promising new export opportunities.

III. Market Risks
- Evolving international trade policies, crude oil price volatility, and increasingly stringent environmental regulations will continue affecting the paraffin wax market. Enterprises should closely monitor market developments and policy updates, and proactively adjust production and sales strategies to mitigate associated risks.

Forecast

I. Price Forecast
- In the near term, paraffin wax prices are expected to remain range-bound with limited volatility.
- Over the longer term, steady demand expansion from emerging applications—combined with stable demand from traditional sectors—will likely support a gradual upward price trend. Nonetheless, risks linked to international trade conditions and crude oil price fluctuations warrant continuous monitoring.

II. Supply-Demand Forecast
- Supply: Domestic paraffin wax production is forecast to continue growing steadily, albeit potentially at a slightly decelerated pace.
- Demand: Domestic demand is expected to remain stable, with emerging applications becoming the key growth engine. While export markets encounter challenges, Southeast Asia and other emerging markets are poised to become significant new drivers of export growth.