Bisphenol A Market Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast

I. Market Intelligence
(A) Price Trends
- Recent Price Volatility: From May 14 to May 22, 2026, Bisphenol A (BPA) prices exhibited a fluctuating downward trend. On May 14, the reference price stood at RMB 9,840.00 per ton—up 1.13% compared to RMB 9,730.00 per ton on May 1. However, prices declined starting May 15, stabilizing at RMB 9,680.00 per ton from May 15 to May 22—a 0.51% decrease versus May 1.
- Historical Price Comparison: As of May 22, BPA prices were down 15.97% compared to RMB 11,520.00 per ton on April 1, 2026; yet they were slightly higher than RMB 9,641 per ton recorded in October 2025.

(B) Supply Situation
- Capacity Release: Only one new BPA production facility—with an annual capacity of 180,000 tons—was commissioned in the first half of 2025, with output commencing in June; thus, its impact on overall supply during H1 was limited. Nevertheless, utilization rates across existing BPA facilities rose significantly, leading to a broad increase in supply volume. Industry-wide operating rates climbed above 70% in March, averaging around 75% monthly; from May to June, load factors gradually increased from ~70% to just above 80%, reaching a three-year high.
- Corporate Dynamics: On February 28, 2026, several enterprises—including Longjiang Chemical, Guangxi Huayi New Materials, and Changchun Chemical—raised their BPA prices. On March 2, Nanya Plastics (Ningbo), Nantong Starlight, and others also implemented BPA price increases.

(C) Demand Situation
- Downstream Industry Demand: The two primary downstream sectors for BPA are epoxy resins and polycarbonate (PC). In the first half of 2025, although operating rates in both sectors improved modestly, demand growth failed to keep pace with supply expansion, resulting in pronounced supply-demand imbalance. Post–Spring Festival terminal demand recovery was sluggish, and demand conditions for both epoxy resins and PC remained subpar. In March, major downstream producers resumed operations, increasing BPA consumption—but supply growth still outpaced demand growth. Entering June, BPA demand entered its seasonal low period, further exacerbating the supply-demand mismatch.
- Procurement Behavior: Downstream enterprises generally procure based on price fluctuations and their own inventory needs—buying modestly on dips during price declines and reducing purchasing activity when prices rise.

(D) Cost Factors
- Raw Material Price Impact: Primary BPA feedstocks are phenol and acetone. On May 14, 2026, Longjiang Chemical raised its phenol price by RMB 100 per ton to RMB 8,200 per ton. Fluctuations in raw material prices directly affect BPA production costs and, consequently, influence BPA pricing dynamics. Rising raw material costs may prompt producers to raise BPA prices; conversely, falling input costs could lead to downward price adjustments—assuming market conditions permit.

II. Analysis and Assessment
(A) Causes of Price Volatility
- Supply Expansion: Continuous capacity additions across the BPA industry from 2025 through 2026 have led to sustained supply growth, creating a loose market environment that exerts downward pressure on prices.
- Weak Demand: Demand growth in key downstream sectors—epoxy resins and PC—has been sluggish, particularly during seasonal lulls. This persistent supply-demand imbalance constrains upward price movement.
- Cost Pass-through: Fluctuations in feedstock prices (e.g., phenol) are transmitted to the BPA market, influencing cost structures and pricing behavior. While cost increases may support price hikes if pass-through is smooth, weak downstream demand can impede effective cost recovery, thereby capping upside potential.

(B) Market Supply-Demand Relationship
- Supply Surplus: Data from 2025 indicate that BPA supply growth far exceeded demand growth, resulting in structural oversupply. In H1 2025, the supply-demand gap approached 75,000 tons; in H2, it narrowed slightly but remained substantial at ~65,600 tons. This imbalance is likely to persist into 2026, intensifying competitive pressure and sustaining price weakness.
- Regional Disparities: Supply-demand conditions may vary regionally. Areas with concentrated production capacity face greater supply pressure and relatively lower prices, whereas regions with stronger localized demand may sustain comparatively higher pricing—though national-level fundamentals remain the dominant driver.

III. Forecast
(A) Price Trend Outlook
- Short Term: Amid ongoing oversupply and subdued demand, BPA prices are expected to remain weak and range-bound in the near term, with little likelihood of significant upward movement. Should feedstock prices stabilize or decline, BPA prices may fall further.
- Medium Term: As downstream demand gradually recovers—especially ahead of traditional peak seasons—BPA prices may stage a modest rebound. However, the extent of any recovery will hinge critically on whether supply growth moderates and whether downstream demand strengthens meaningfully. Without effective supply-side discipline, upside potential remains constrained.
- Long Term: Over the longer horizon, BPA market supply-demand equilibrium is anticipated to gradually improve. As newly added capacities are absorbed and downstream industries mature steadily, prices should stabilize within a rational, sustainable range. Nevertheless, should additional large-scale capacity enter the market while downstream demand growth continues to underperform expectations, renewed downward price pressure remains a tangible risk.

(B) Supply-Demand Outlook
- Supply Side: Additional BPA capacity is likely to come online in the foreseeable future, sustaining upward pressure on total supply volumes. Producers must closely monitor market developments and optimize production planning to avoid excessive output and inventory buildup.
- Demand Side: Growth in demand from epoxy resin and PC sectors will be shaped by macroeconomic conditions and sector-specific trends. Stricter environmental regulations and emerging application areas may bolster long-term BPA demand, albeit at a relatively gradual pace. Enterprises are advised to strengthen market research, refine product portfolios, and enhance quality standards to better meet evolving downstream customer requirements.