Recent Market Dynamics Intelligence for Dichloropropane

I. Price Trends
- National Market: In May 2026, the national bulk (loose) ex-works price of dichloropropane exhibited a volatile upward trend. On May 21, the national bulk ex-works price stood at RMB 2,125 per ton, an increase of RMB 65 per ton compared to the previous trading day. By May 24, prices remained at elevated levels with no significant decline observed.
- Regional Market: As a major production and consumption hub for dichloropropane, Shandong Province experienced relatively frequent price fluctuations. On May 11, the market price in Jinan City, Shandong Province, was RMB 1,950.00 per ton for 80% purity dichloropropane and RMB 2,300.00 per ton for 99% purity dichloropropane; the ex-factory price in Zibo City for 99.9% purity material was RMB 1,800.00 per ton. In late May, prices across Shandong Province rose in tandem with the national market, with some enterprises adjusting their quotations upward.

II. Supply-Demand Landscape
- Supply Side: Domestic dichloropropane production facilities operated generally stably; however, output fluctuated at certain plants due to adjustments in primary product (e.g., propylene oxide) production schedules. Industry operating rates held steady around 80% in late May, resulting in relatively tight supply conditions. Moreover, import supply remained limited, and international price movements and ocean freight cost changes exerted minimal influence on the domestic market.
- Demand Side: Downstream demand continued to strengthen, supporting higher dichloropropane prices. Key downstream applications include propylene oxide production, solvent uses, and agrochemical intermediates. In late May, as downstream factories gradually resumed operations and logistics capacity recovered, spot demand increased, further driving up market prices.

III. Cost Support
- Raw Material Prices: Dichloropropane production costs are primarily influenced by propylene and chlorine prices. In late May, propylene prices in Shandong Province were approximately RMB 9,205 per ton, while liquid chlorine averaged RMB 330 per ton. Raw material prices remained stable, providing solid cost support for dichloropropane.
- Energy Costs: Rising coal and natural gas prices increased energy-related production costs; however, this has not yet exerted significant upward pressure on dichloropropane pricing.

IV. Market Sentiment and Expectations
- Market Participants’ Outlook: Producers, traders, and end-users generally hold optimistic views toward the near-term outlook, with strong bullish expectations. Traders are adopting cautious selling strategies and accumulating inventory, while downstream users are increasing procurement for stockpiling—intensifying short-term market tightness and pushing prices higher.
- Speculative Activity: Currently, speculative activity in the dichloropropane market remains limited; price fluctuations are predominantly driven by fundamental supply-demand dynamics.

Analysis and Assessment

I. Drivers of Upward Price Movement
- Tight Supply-Demand Balance: Stable but fluctuating production output, coupled with limited import supply, has resulted in relatively constrained market supply. Meanwhile, sustained downstream demand continues to support price increases.
- Cost Support: Stable raw material prices (propylene and chlorine), along with rising energy costs, jointly establish a firm cost floor for dichloropropane.
- Market Sentiment: Broadly bullish sentiment encourages inventory accumulation by traders and advance purchasing by end-users, thereby intensifying market tightness.

II. Potential Risk Factors
- Demand Volatility: A seasonal downturn in downstream demand or intensified competition from substitutes could constrain further price appreciation.
- Policy Impacts: Changes in environmental protection, work safety, or other regulatory policies may affect plant operations and overall market supply.
- International Market: Fluctuations in global prices and ocean freight costs could impact import availability and exert spillover effects on domestic pricing.

Forecast

I. Short-Term Forecast (1–2 Weeks)
- Price Trend: Dichloropropane prices are expected to remain at elevated levels, potentially experiencing minor upward adjustments. The national bulk ex-works price may exceed RMB 2,200 per ton, with prices in Shandong Province moving in line with national trends.
- Supply-Demand Landscape: Production facilities are expected to operate steadily, sustaining relatively tight supply conditions; meanwhile, robust downstream demand will continue to underpin price strength.
- Market Sentiment: Widespread bullish expectations are likely to sustain active trading activity, and producers are expected to maintain healthy order volumes.

II. Medium-Term Forecast (1–3 Months)
- Price Trend: Should downstream demand remain robust and no substantial new supply capacity come online, dichloropropane prices are likely to consolidate at high levels with moderate volatility. However, if demand weakens seasonally or supply-side operating rates increase significantly, downward price pressure may emerge.
- Supply-Demand Landscape: The stability of domestic production facilities and the extent of import replenishment will be critical determinants of supply conditions; downstream sector health and competitive dynamics from alternative materials will shape demand trajectories.
- Market Sentiment: As supply-demand fundamentals evolve and price volatility increases, market participants’ expectations may become more diversified—bullish and bearish views coexisting.

III. Long-Term Forecast (3–6 Months)
- Price Trend: Dichloropropane pricing over the longer horizon will be shaped by multiple macro-level factors, including the broader macroeconomic environment, industrial policy developments, and the global trade landscape. Strong global economic recovery coupled with sustained growth in chemical industry demand could support continued price appreciation; conversely, economic deceleration or tightening industrial regulation may exert downward pressure.
- Supply-Demand Landscape: Capacity expansion and phasing out of outdated production capacity will reshape supply-side structure; downstream sector transformation, technological upgrades, and substitute competition will critically influence demand evolution.
- Market Sentiment: Over the long term, market participants are expected to adopt a more rational, risk-aware approach toward price fluctuations—emphasizing prudent risk management and cost control.