TMP Market Intelligence Report (May 27, 2026)

I. Price Trends
1. Benchmark Price
- According to Binsu Network data, the benchmark price of trimethylolpropane (TMP) on May 27, 2026, stood at RMB 9,066.67 per metric ton, down 0.91% from the beginning-of-month level (RMB 9,150/ton) and down 0.18% on a daily basis—reaching a one-year low.
- On May 26, the benchmark price was RMB 15,300/ton, down 18.98% from the beginning-of-month level (RMB 18,883.33/ton), indicating pronounced short-term price volatility.

2. Regional Price Differentials
- Shandong Province: Shandong Hongyang Chemical quoted RMB 8,800/ton (99% purity); Beilu Hengsheng quoted RMB 8,600/ton (Yihua brand); Shandong Xima Supply Chain quoted RMB 8,400/ton (premium grade, 99.5% purity).
- Hubei Province: Yihua quoted RMB 8,600/ton—matching quotations from certain Shandong-based producers.
- Premium-price Regions: Wuhan Hengjiu Chemical quoted RMB 15,000/ton (Baichuan brand); Guanjiuzhou Energy quoted RMB 15,000/ton—reflecting brand premium or demand for specialized specifications.

3. Historical Comparison
- Prices surged rapidly from RMB 8,500/ton at the start of 2026 to RMB 15,000/ton in February, exceeded RMB 20,000/ton in March, and peaked at RMB 26,500/ton in April before sharply retreating—settling near RMB 9,000/ton by late May—exhibiting a 'sharp surge followed by steep correction' pattern.

II. Driving Factor Analysis
1. Upstream Cost Pressures
- n-Butyraldehyde: CR5 concentration rose to 67%, intensifying supply-side monopolization and pushing up raw material costs.
- High-purity hydrogen: Prices rose 35% year-on-year, squeezing profit margins of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
- Environmental policies: China’s 14th Five-Year Plan advances green transformation; tightening environmental inspections have constrained operating rates of SME production facilities, resulting in supply-side contraction.

2. Supply-Demand Dynamics
- Supply Side:
- Leading enterprises (e.g., Wanhua Chemical, BASF) are expanding capacity, while SMEs are exiting due to cost pressures—industry CR4 has reached 86.4%, reflecting extremely high concentration.
- Plant maintenance or shutdowns occurred across several producers in April 2026, temporarily reducing supply—yet long-term overcapacity risks persist.
- Demand Side:
- Coatings industry (accounting for >65% of TMP consumption): Automotive coatings demand is recovering; adoption of UV-curing systems is rising (e.g., suppliers to BYD and CATL switching to low-VOC TMP flakes).
- Polyurethane industry (25% of demand): Expansion in construction and furniture markets is driving demand for plasticizers.
- Emerging applications: Di-trimethylolpropane (DI-TMP) is gaining traction in semiconductor packaging and new-energy battery encapsulation adhesives—indirectly boosting TMP demand.

3. Policy and Trade Impacts
- EU REACH regulation proposes listing TMP precursors on the Candidate List of Substances of Very High Concern (SVHC), potentially increasing compliance costs for exporters.
- Robust demand in emerging markets such as Pakistan has expanded Chinese exports, alleviating domestic supply pressure.

III. Market Structure and Competitive Landscape
1. Advantages of Leading Enterprises
- Wanhua Chemical: Leveraging integrated industrial chains and proprietary catalyst technologies, its 2025 market share reached 32.1%; the commissioning of its Yantai Phase II project further strengthens its capacity advantage.
- BASF: Its Changzhou facility’s purity upgrade project (targeting 99.92%) supports the premium segment; premium-order share is projected to exceed 72% in 2026.
- Hubei Yihua and Nanjing Red Sun: Consolidating market share through technology patents (e.g., in UV-curable resins) and regional advantages (e.g., Zaozhuang base proximity to major formaldehyde production hubs).

2. Challenges Facing SMEs
- The remaining eight SMEs collectively hold only 5.9% market share. Affected by raw material costs and environmental regulations, their average gross margin narrowed from 14.2% in 2024 to 9.7% in 2026; some are pursuing capacity consolidation or exit strategies.

IV. Future Outlook
1. Price Forecast
- Short term: Prices are expected to oscillate within a narrow range since downward transmission of high prices faces resistance; however, capacity releases by leading players and cost support will limit further downside—prices likely to stabilize between RMB 9,000–10,000/ton.
- Medium-to-long term: The 2026 global TMP market size is projected to reach USD 229.8 million (a 5.2% YoY increase). While the price center is expected to shift upward, growth momentum will moderate compared with Q4 2025; the full-year average price may fluctuate around RMB 11,000–12,000/ton.

2. Demand Structure Evolution
- Traditional end-uses (coatings, polyurethanes) show steady growth; emerging sectors—including semiconductor packaging and new-energy battery applications—are becoming primary growth drivers.
- The DI-TMP market size is forecast to reach RMB 3.39 billion in 2026 (a 13% YoY increase), further stimulating TMP demand.

3. Industry Consolidation and Competition
- Leading firms are elevating technical barriers via vertical collaboration (e.g., joint testing of TMP–polyurethane–battery-pack sealing solutions by Wanhua Chemical and BASF), raising entry thresholds for new competitors.
- Accelerated SME exits will further concentrate the industry, potentially pushing CR4 beyond 90%.

4. Risk Factors
- Volatility in raw material prices, tightening environmental regulations, and international trade frictions may heighten market uncertainty.