Sulfuric Acid Market Dynamics Intelligence, Analysis & Forecast

I. Market Dynamics Intelligence

Price Trends
- Overall High-Level Volatility: Since May 2026, domestic sulfuric acid prices in China have remained at historically high levels, exhibiting regional divergence and high-level volatility. On May 20, the Base Price of sulfuric acid on Shengyishe (a Chinese commodity price platform) stood at approximately RMB 1,862.50 per metric ton—near the highest level over the past year. Although this represents a slight correction from the local peak exceeding RMB 2,100 per metric ton observed at the end of April, overall prices remain resilient. On May 11, the national average market price was RMB 1,839.06 per metric ton, up by RMB 3.44 (a 0.19% increase) from the previous trading day, signaling entry into a phase of high-level consolidation.
- Significant Regional Price Differentials: Pronounced inter-regional price variations persist. For instance, in Shandong Province, soaring raw-material costs for sulfur-based acid production—sulfur prices surged to RMB 7,300–7,400 per metric ton—and partial plant maintenance shutdowns have tightened supply, pushing the ex-factory price for 98% sulfuric acid to RMB 2,400–2,450 per metric ton. In Zhejiang Province, major smelter-acid producers report smooth sales and low inventories, enabling them to raise prices to RMB 1,760–1,820 per metric ton. Conversely, in Yunnan Province, traditional off-season demand from the fertilizer industry has dampened downstream procurement enthusiasm, forcing some acid producers to cut prices to reduce inventory. The current highest-priced region has shifted from Jilin, Fujian, and Liaoning at the beginning of the year to Qinghai; the lowest-priced region has shifted from Xinjiang to Heilongjiang.

Supply-Demand Situation
- Supply Side:
- Capacity & Output: As of end-2025, China’s total sulfuric acid production capacity reached 155 million metric tons, a 9.2% YoY increase; annual output in 2025 totaled 128 million metric tons, up 5.3% YoY. In early 2026, several acid plants across regions—including Yunnan—remain under scheduled maintenance, sustaining tight supply conditions. Meanwhile, newly commissioned capacities in Henan and Anhui provinces are gradually ramping up, modestly increasing overall supply.
- Corporate Developments: Yunnan Copper Co., Ltd. set its full-year 2026 sulfuric acid production target at 5.76 million metric tons; Q1 2026 production progressed steadily in line with plan.
- Demand Side:
- Traditional Demand: The fertilizer industry remains the largest traditional consumer. In 2025, China’s total phosphatic fertilizer output reached 18.5 million metric tons, up 3.5% YoY. However, post-spring-plowing demand softening in Yunnan and other regions has curbed sulfuric acid consumption.
- Emerging Demand: Demand from new-energy sectors is growing markedly: China’s lithium iron phosphate (LFP) output reached 3.875 million metric tons in 2025, surging ~56% YoY, driven jointly by energy storage and electric vehicle battery applications—generating sustained incremental demand for sulfuric acid. Chemical industries—including titanium dioxide, hydrofluoric acid, and caprolactam—maintain steady, just-in-time procurement, providing baseline demand support.

Cost Factors
Raw material prices for sulfur and pyrite remain elevated, strongly supporting sulfuric acid pricing. In 2025, China imported 9.608 million metric tons of sulfur—down 344,000 tons (3.5%) YoY; the average import price rose to USD 265.3 per metric ton, up USD 149.1 (128.2% YoY) from last year. Soaring sulfur prices have significantly increased production costs for sulfur-based acid manufacturers, prompting some firms to curtail output or operate at losses.

Policy Impact
Effective May 1, 2026, China suspended exports of ordinary industrial-grade sulfuric acid (excluding high-purity electronic-grade sulfuric acid). This policy further tightens domestic supply-demand balance. Companies possessing scarce domestic pyrite resources—such as Guangdong-Guangxi Group Co., Ltd. (Yuegui)—have consequently gained enhanced pricing power and market influence.

II. Analysis & Judgment

Reasons for Elevated Prices
- Supply-Demand Tight Balance: In certain regions, acid producers maintain strong order backlogs and consistently low inventory levels, sustaining an overall tight supply-demand equilibrium. For example, plant maintenance in Yunnan constrains supply; while new capacities in Henan and Anhui are being phased in only gradually, failing to fully bridge market demand gaps.
- Cost Push: Persistently high sulfur prices have lifted production costs for sulfur-based acid, compelling manufacturers to raise selling prices to safeguard profitability—thereby driving broad-based price increases.
- Export Restrictions: The suspension of ordinary industrial sulfuric acid exports reduces outward flow of domestic supply, intensifying domestic supply-demand tightness and reinforcing price resilience at elevated levels.

Reasons for Regional Price Differentials
- Demand Structure Differences: Chemical-sector users (e.g., titanium dioxide, new-energy materials) adopt spot procurement with low price sensitivity and robust demand—tightening supply-demand balance and elevating prices in such regions (e.g., Fujian: average price rose from RMB 1,050/ton at year-start to RMB 1,800–1,940/ton currently). In contrast, fertilizer-sector buyers (phosphatic fertilizers) rely heavily on long-term contracts, operate on thin margins, and adjust prices slowly; thus, fertilizer-dominant regions exhibit front-loaded demand and lagging price responsiveness (e.g., Yunnan: average price declined from RMB 1,120/ton at year-start to RMB 1,400–1,480/ton post-spring-plowing).
- Supply Concentration Differences: In supply-concentrated regions (e.g., Qinghai), only one or two producers dominate the local market, compounded by high transportation costs—creating de facto supply oligopoly and pushing prices to RMB 1,920–1,940/ton. In export-surplus regions (e.g., Heilongjiang), smelter-acid producers rely primarily on external sales, lacking major local customers; oversupply pressure manifests as lower pricing (RMB 1,300–1,480/ton currently).
- Sulfur-Acid Spillover Effect: High-cost sulfur-acid has incentivized some buyers to shift procurement toward nearby smelter-acid, altering regional supply-demand balances. Benefiting regions—including Shandong, Henan, Anhui, and southern Hebei—experience “crowding-in” demand, tightening smelter-acid supply-demand and lifting prices to RMB 1,600–1,800/ton; whereas independent pricing zones remote from this spillover effect determine prices solely based on localized supply-demand fundamentals.

III. Forecast

Short-Term Outlook
- Price Trend: Short-term price trends vary regionally: in areas experiencing tight supply-demand balance, prices may edge slightly higher; elsewhere, markets are expected to continue consolidating at elevated levels. For example, before Yunnan’s maintenance shutdowns conclude, supply constraints are unlikely to ease, potentially pushing local prices marginally upward; conversely, in export-surplus regions like Heilongjiang, prices are likely to remain stable or fluctuate modestly.
- Supply-Demand Evolution: As new capacities in Henan and Anhui continue ramping up, domestic sulfuric acid supply will incrementally expand—but near-term output growth is insufficient to fully satisfy demand, sustaining the prevailing tight-balance condition. Concurrently, summer-seasonal weakening in fertilizer-sector demand may accelerate, while chemical and new-energy sector demand remains stable; overall demand is expected to change little in the short term.

Long-Term Outlook
- Price Trend: Over the longer term, sulfuric acid prices will be shaped by multiple converging factors. Should sulfur prices sustain their elevated levels, cost support will remain robust—limiting downside risk. Yet, gradual commissioning of additional domestic capacity and seasonal demand fluctuations may induce moderate price corrections. Accordingly, prices are projected to remain relatively high over the medium term, though upward momentum is expected to decelerate.
- Supply-Demand Evolution: On the supply side, continued commissioning of new facilities will progressively strengthen China’s sulfuric acid output capacity, eventually giving rise to emerging oversupply pressures. On the demand side, growth in new-energy applications will serve as a critical pillar for sulfuric acid demand, while fertilizer-sector demand may face volatility due to policy shifts and macroeconomic influences. Overall, the market’s supply-demand relationship is anticipated to gradually transition toward a looser equilibrium.
- Industry Structure Evolution: The export restriction on ordinary industrial sulfuric acid is likely to spur domestic producers to intensify competition and deepen focus on the domestic market, potentially accelerating industry consolidation. Firms possessing strategic advantages—including secure access to core pyrite resources and advanced manufacturing capabilities for high-value products—will gain competitive edge. For example, Yuegui’s strategic expansion into electronic-grade sulfuric acid signifies vertical integration and enhanced competitiveness.