R22 Recent Commodity Market Intelligence Report

I. Price Trend
- Recent Price Movement: R22 prices have exhibited a notable upward trend recently. As of May 25, 2026, the mainstream domestic and export offer prices from major manufacturers stand at RMB 22,000 per metric ton, with the market average price rising compared to earlier levels.
- Specific Price Data:
- May 8, 2026: R22 reference price was RMB 20,500.00/ton, up 1.65% week-on-week from May 1.
- April 30, 2026: R22 reference price was RMB 20,166.67/ton, up 16.35% month-on-month from April 1.
- April 24, 2026: R22 reference price was RMB 19,666.67/ton, up 5.26% week-on-week and 25% year-to-date.
- April 17, 2026: R22 reference price was RMB 18,333.33/ton.
- April 10, 2026: R22 reference price was RMB 17,666.67/ton, up 1.92% month-on-month from April 1.
- April 1, 2026: R22 reference price was RMB 17,333.33/ton.

II. Supply and Demand Dynamics
- Supply Side:
- Production is constrained by the rigid policy-based reduction in 2026 annual production quotas. Concurrently, persistently high prices for the key raw material anhydrous hydrofluoric acid (AHF) have significantly increased manufacturing costs, reinforcing producers’ firm pricing stance.
- Leading manufacturers are proactively controlling output volumes and prioritizing fulfillment of industrial supply contracts and pre-existing orders, resulting in continued tightness of spot market inventory.
- Demand Side:
- Downstream demand from the air-conditioning maintenance market remains subdued due to weak end-user consumption; buyers exhibit limited willingness to absorb current elevated prices and lack impetus for large-scale centralized stockpiling.
- With the approach of the summer cooling season, demand for R22 from the air-conditioning maintenance sector is expected to rise on a sequential basis.

III. Cost Factors
- Raw Material Costs: Prices of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid (AHF) remain persistently high, providing strong support to R22 production costs.
- Other Costs: Price fluctuations in other raw materials—such as chloroform—also exert some influence on overall R22 production costs.

IV. Policy Environment
- Quota Policy: As a second-generation refrigerant, R22 faces progressively steep annual reductions in both production and consumption quotas. In 2026, R22 production and usage quotas are reduced by 71.5% and 76.1%, respectively, relative to baseline levels—clearly signaling its long-term phase-out trajectory.
- Environmental Regulations: The Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol continues to accelerate China’s R22 phase-out process, prompting industry-wide transition toward low-global-warming-potential (low-GWP) alternatives.

V. Competitive Substitutes
- The increasing adoption and application of third-generation refrigerants (e.g., R32, R410A) in new air-conditioning units have gradually eroded R22’s market share in the OEM segment, thereby imposing some restraint on R22 price increases.

Analysis & Assessment

1. Price Trend: In the short term, the R22 refrigerant market is expected to maintain a narrow-range, upwardly oscillating pattern within the current price band. As the summer cooling season approaches and downstream stockpiling activity gains tangible momentum, R22 prices may continue to rise—albeit with upside capped by sluggish downstream demand and competitive pressure from substitutes.
2. Supply-Demand Balance: Tightened supply provides robust price support; however, tepid demand may limit the extent of price appreciation. Producers should closely monitor downstream restocking patterns and raw material cost developments to adjust production strategies accordingly.
3. Policy Impact: Ongoing quota reductions will exert sustained downward pressure on R22 supply over the long term, driving structural transformation toward environmentally compliant alternatives. Manufacturers must proactively adapt to evolving regulatory requirements and reconfigure their product portfolios.

Outlook

1. Price Forecast: Over the medium to long term, further quota cuts and persistently elevated raw material costs are expected to sustain upward price pressure on R22. However, increasing penetration of third-generation refrigerants and evolving downstream demand dynamics may gradually moderate both the magnitude and volatility of R22 price increases.
2. Market Structure: The R22 market will increasingly pivot toward after-sales maintenance applications. Producers must stay attuned to shifting demand patterns and regulatory signals, promptly adjusting production planning and market positioning.
3. Substitute Development: Stricter environmental regulations and maturing substitute technologies will steadily elevate third-generation refrigerants to dominant market status. Manufacturers should intensify R&D investment and market development efforts in this space.