Butanol (n-Butanol) Recent Commodity Market Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast

I. Market Intelligence
Price Trends
- Continued Price Decline: As of May 22, 2026, the reference price for n-butanol in Shandong Province, China, stood at RMB 7,133/ton, down RMB 433 (a 5.73% decline) from RMB 7,566/ton on May 17. From May 17 to May 22, the Shandong n-butanol market exhibited a consistent, one-way downward trend, with notable daily declines; market negotiation benchmarks continuously shifted lower. On May 22, the Shandong n-butanol market price ranged approximately between RMB 7,100–7,200/ton.

- Enterprise Quotation Adjustments:
- On May 20: Luxi Chemical Group quoted n-butanol at RMB 7,300/ton (down RMB 100/ton vs. previous trading day); Shandong Lihuayi quoted n-butanol at RMB 7,250/ton (down RMB 50/ton vs. previous trading day).
- On May 19: Luxi Chemical Group quoted n-butanol at RMB 7,400/ton (down RMB 100/ton vs. previous trading day); Shandong Lihuayi quoted n-butanol at RMB 7,300/ton (down RMB 100/ton vs. previous trading day).
- On the afternoon of May 18: Wanhua Chemical implemented a n-butanol price of RMB 7,500/ton in the North China region (down RMB 200/ton vs. previous trading day); Shandong Lihuayi quoted n-butanol at RMB 7,400/ton (down RMB 100/ton vs. previous trading day).
- On May 15: Luxi Chemical Group quoted n-butanol at RMB 7,500/ton (down RMB 100/ton vs. previous trading day).
- On the afternoon of May 14: Wanhua Chemical implemented a n-butanol price of RMB 7,700/ton in the North China region (down RMB 200/ton vs. previous trading day).

Supply-Demand Dynamics
- Increased Supply: Previously idled or maintenance-scheduled n-butanol production units have resumed operations en masse, leading to an overall increase in market supply.
- Weak Demand: Downstream industries—including butyl acrylate and plasticizers—have slowed procurement pace significantly. Buyers exhibit strong resistance to high raw material prices, and large-scale restocking activities have diminished. Trading activity remains sluggish overall. Key downstream butyl acrylate producers face narrow profit margins, and the number of idle production units in this sector has increased, resulting in subpar demand for n-butanol.

Cost Factors
Crude propylene feedstock prices have declined, weakening cost support for n-butanol production. To gain or retain market share, producers are actively offering discounts, further driving benchmark prices downward.

Technical Indicators
From May 17 to May 21, the 10-day moving average crossed below the 20-day moving average, and the downward deviation between the two is widening—suggesting an accelerating downward momentum in the near term. Auxiliary technical indicators indicate that current n-butanol pricing resides near the median level over a one-year forward horizon.

II. Analysis & Judgment
Short-Term Market Pressure Remains Elevated
The current n-butanol market faces multifaceted pressures: oversupply, weakening cost support, and lackluster downstream demand. On the supply side, the resumption of previously maintained facilities has elevated output levels. On the demand side, downstream sectors demonstrate low purchasing enthusiasm, failing to generate meaningful demand growth for n-butanol. On the cost side, falling propylene prices have eroded the fundamental cost floor supporting n-butanol pricing. Collectively, these factors render near-term price stabilization or recovery highly unlikely.

Bearish Market Sentiment Prevails
Negative sentiment is intensifying across the market. Producers are proactively cutting prices to secure sales volume and market share—further exacerbating the downward price spiral. Concurrently, downstream buyers’ aversion to higher raw material costs contributes to subdued trading activity, undermining price stability.

III. Forecast
Continued Price Pressure Expected
In the short term, n-butanol prices are highly likely to extend their decline. Given that the prevailing supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to ease imminently—and considering persistent cost headwinds and tepid downstream demand—n-butanol prices are expected to remain under sustained pressure.

Key Monitoring Variables
Going forward, market participants should closely track developments across several critical dimensions: fluctuations in upstream feedstock prices (especially propylene), changes in operating rates among major downstream industries (e.g., butyl acrylate, plasticizers), scheduled maintenance or unplanned outages among n-butanol production facilities, and inventory levels across the value chain. A rebound in upstream feedstock prices, improved downstream operating rates, or widespread n-butanol plant maintenance reducing supply could provide upward price support and potentially halt the downtrend. Conversely, if these variables continue trending unfavorably, n-butanol prices may fall further.