Vitamin A Market Dynamics Report – Recent Commodity Market Intelligence

I. Price Trend
- Current Price: As of May 20, 2026, the spot price of vitamin A stands at RMB 92.57/kg, down by RMB 2.29/kg (a decline of 2.41%) over the past week and down by RMB 19.14/kg (a decline of 17.13%) over the past month.
- Historical Comparison: In June 2024, the benchmark price of vitamin A remained stable at RMB 87.67/kg; the average price in the first half of 2023 was approximately RMB 86/kg, declining to RMB 75–77/kg in Q3 2023.

II. Supply-Demand Situation
- Supply Side:
- Production Capacity Structure: The global vitamin A market is highly concentrated, dominated by major producers including DSM, BASF, and NHU (New Huacheng), forming an oligopolistic competitive landscape.
- Maintenance Schedules: NHU’s vitamin A plant is scheduled for a 10-week shutdown for maintenance in mid-June 2022; in 2026, NHU’s Shandong vitamin E plant is planned for an 8–9-week maintenance period beginning mid-June—raising short-term expectations of supply tightening.
- Demand Side:
- Downstream Application Mix: Approximately 85% of demand originates from the feed industry (with swine feed accounting for 42%), while pharmaceuticals, food, and cosmetics collectively account for ~15%.
- Export Performance: From January to March 2026, China’s vitamin A exports increased by 69.3% year-on-year, with primary destinations including Germany, the United States, Vietnam, and Brazil—providing moderate support to the domestic market.

III. Market Drivers
- Cost Factors: Fluctuations in upstream raw material prices—particularly citral—directly impact production costs; however, no significant cost pressure has been reported recently.
- Policy Environment: Stricter environmental regulations are driving enterprises to adopt green manufacturing technologies (e.g., microbial fermentation, plant extraction), though these have not yet imposed substantive constraints on supply in the short term.
- Industry Events: A fire/explosion at BASF’s German facility in July 2024 triggered a short-term price surge; no similar disruptive incidents have occurred recently.

IV. Competitive Landscape
- Domestic Players: NHU, Zhejiang Medicine, and Brothers Technology hold leading positions domestically, consolidating market share through technological innovation and brand development.
- International Players: Multinational corporations such as DSM and BASF leverage technological and scale advantages in global competition, while SMEs target niche markets (e.g., functional vitamin A formulations) via product differentiation.

Analysis & Assessment
1. Short-Term Price Pressure: The recent sharp price decline is primarily attributable to weak demand. Although export growth remains robust, domestic feed-sector demand growth has slowed, compounded by inventory digestion pressure—making a near-term price reversal unlikely.
2. Supply Tightening Expectations: Maintenance schedules of key producers (e.g., NHU) may reduce market supply during June–August; however, relatively high current inventory levels may partially offset this anticipated shortfall.
3. Lagging Cost Pass-Through: Upstream raw material price fluctuations have not yet significantly impacted the vitamin A segment, offering limited cost-based price support.

Forecast
1. Price Trend:
- Late May to Early June: Supported by maintenance-related supply concerns and end-of-month procurement demand, prices may rebound modestly to the RMB 95–100/kg range.
- Q3 2026: Absent clear demand improvement, prices are likely to remain weak and range-bound, with potential downside to RMB 85–90/kg.
2. Supply-Demand Balance:
- Supply: Output reductions during maintenance periods may be partially compensated by increased imports (e.g., from BASF and DSM).
- Demand: Feed-sector demand provides fundamental support due to its relative inelasticity, but slower growth in pharmaceutical and cosmetics applications means overall demand growth lags behind supply growth.
3. Industry Trends:
- Technological Upgrading: Microencapsulation and nano-embedding technologies are enhancing product value-added, gradually expanding the share of high-end applications.
- Environmental Pressures: Accelerated adoption of green manufacturing technologies is intensifying competitive pressure on SMEs—those unable to upgrade face heightened risks of consolidation or exit, further elevating industry concentration.

Key Risk Factors
- Demand-Side Risks: Declining profitability in livestock farming could suppress feed additive demand, triggering deeper-than-expected price declines.
- Supply-Side Risks: Delays in, or early resumption from, major producers’ maintenance schedules could undermine supply-tightening expectations.
- Policy-Related Risks: Further tightening of environmental regulations or escalation of trade frictions may disrupt production or impede export performance.