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Ethanol

  • 5700CNY/TON Updated: 2026-05-30
  • Price change (DoD): 0
    Average price (3M):5835 CNY/TON
    Price Level(1Y):High-mid
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Ethanol Prices Trends in China

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Reg Spec 2026/05/28 2026/05/29 2026/05/30 ChangeUnit Comparison
Domestic
  • Domestic 95% Food Grade 5717 5700 5700 0/0 CNY/TON

Ethanol Market Analysis

Ethanol Market Dynamics Intelligence (May 27, 2026)

I. Price Trends
1. Benchmark Price
- According to Shengyishe (Business Society) data, the national benchmark price of ethanol on May 22, 2026, stood at RMB 5,741.11 per metric ton, down 0.5% from RMB 5,770.00 per metric ton on May 21.
- Per Longzhong Information, the national average ex-factory price of ethanol declined gradually from RMB 5,980.30 per metric ton during the period of May 14–22, 2026, to RMB 5,939.39 per metric ton, representing a weekly decline of 0.09%.

2. Regional Divergence
- Northeast Region: Fuel ethanol prices in Jilin Province declined, primarily due to increased supply and weakening cost support.
- East China Region: Anhydrous ethanol prices in Northern Jiangsu Province faced downward pressure amid sluggish downstream chemical demand.
- South China Region: Markets in Guangdong and Guangxi provinces remained range-bound; traders demonstrated relatively high willingness to offload inventory, yet actual transaction volumes remained limited.

II. Supply-Demand Dynamics
1. Supply Side
- Capacity Expansion: China’s total ethanol production capacity reached 18.33 million metric tons per year in 2025, up 15.6% year-on-year; coal-to-ethanol’s share rose to 21.82%. Additional capacity continued commissioning in 2026, sustaining a supply-abundant market environment.
- Operating Rates: Plant utilization rates steadily recovered in Q4; some enterprises in the Northeast maintained high operating loads driven by heating demand, contributing to overall output growth.
- Regional Disparities: Cassava-based ethanol output was constrained by tight raw material supply; corn-based ethanol faced intensified price competition amid declining production costs.

2. Demand Side
- Chemical Sector: Incremental capacity for downstream derivatives—including ethyl acetate and ethyl methyl carbonate—spurred modest growth in ethanol demand; however, certain end-products operated under cost pressures.
- Fuel Sector: Global ethanol demand is expanding, supported by policy-driven increases in blending mandates in Vietnam, Guatemala, and Indonesia; domestically, however, the rapid development of new-energy vehicles is exerting a substitution effect on fuel ethanol demand.
- Food & Beverage Sector: Baijiu (Chinese distilled spirit) consumption dipped slightly, while demand for low-alcohol beverages rose, resulting in stable-to-moderate overall growth in food-grade ethanol consumption.

III. Cost & Profitability Analysis
1. Raw Material Prices
- Corn: Ample supply following the launch of the new season’s harvest has stabilized prices with a mild downward bias, weakening cost support for ethanol production.
- Cassava Chips: Tight supply continues to keep prices elevated, resulting in sustained losses for cassava-based ethanol producers.
- Coal: Falling coal prices have reduced production costs for coal-to-ethanol, further enhancing its market share.

2. Profitability Analysis
- Bio-fermentation ethanol faces shrinking margins due to persistently high raw material costs and softening downstream pricing.
- Coal-to-ethanol is rapidly displacing traditional fermentation ethanol in the chemical sector, leveraging its pronounced cost advantage.

IV. Import & Export Status
1. Imports
- From January to November 2025, unmodified ethanol imports totaled 775.791 metric tons, and modified ethanol imports amounted to 241.72 metric tons—mainly sourced from Georgia, Germany, and France.
- Import volumes represent an extremely small fraction of domestic supply-demand scale and exert negligible influence on the domestic market.

2. Exports
- From January to November 2025, exports of unmodified ethanol reached 53,514.932 metric tons, and modified ethanol exports totaled 1,889.086 metric tons—primarily destined for the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea.
- Export growth may alleviate domestic oversupply pressure, though overall export scale remains comparatively small.

V. Policy & Market Drivers
1. International Policies
- Vietnam, Guatemala, Indonesia, and other countries are advancing ethanol blending mandates, supporting global demand growth.
- U.S. ethanol exports hit record highs, buoyed by the E15 temporary waiver policy stimulating domestic consumption.

2. Domestic Policies
- Fuel ethanol promotion has slowed due to the rise of new-energy vehicles and evolving policy frameworks.
- Coal-to-ethanol projects benefit from policy support for low-carbon upgrades, enabling concurrent capacity expansion and equipment modernization.

VI. Analysis & Outlook
1. Short-Term (1–3 months)
- Price Trend: Ethanol prices are likely to remain weak and range-bound, pressured by ongoing supply additions, declining costs, and tepid demand; minor localized fluctuations may occur due to logistics disruptions.
- Regional Divergence: Prices in the Northeast may find relative support from heating demand, whereas those in East and South China will remain under pressure from sluggish chemical-sector demand.

2. Medium-Term (6–12 months)
- Supply-Demand Balance: Continuous commissioning of new capacity will sustain a supply-abundant environment; although international policy tailwinds boost fuel ethanol demand, domestic substitution effects remain significant.
- Cost Support: Corn prices may decline further amid periodic selling pressure, widening the cost advantage of coal-to-ethanol and intensifying margin pressure on bio-fermentation ethanol producers—eroding their market share.

3. Long-Term (1–3 years)
- Market Expansion: Global ethanol demand is projected to grow steadily, with emerging markets’ policy-driven blending mandate enhancements offering incremental growth opportunities.
- Industrial Upgrading: Synergistic deployment of low-carbon technologies—including carbon capture and storage (CCS)—with ethanol production will accelerate industry transformation toward dual objectives: “scale-driven growth + low-carbon upgrading”.

About Ethanol



MedicalA solution of 70-85% of ethanol is commonly used as a disinfectant and it kills organisms by denaturing their proteins and dissolving their lipids. It is effective against most bacteria and fungi, and many viruses, but is ineffective against bacterial spores. This disinfectant property of ethanol is the reason that alcoholic beverages can be stored for a long time[9]. Ethanol also has many medical uses, and can be found in products such as medicines, medical wipes and as an antiseptic in most antibacterial hand sanitizer gels. Ethanal can also be used as antidote. It competitively blocks the formation of toxic metabolites in toxic alcohol ingestions by having a higher affinity for the enzyme Alcohol Dehydrogenase (ADH). Its chief application is in methanol and ethylene glycol ingestions. Ethanol can be administered by the oral, nasogastric or intravenous route to maintain a blood ethanol concentration of 100-150 mg/dl (22-33 mol/L)[10].FuelEthanol is flammable and burns more cleanly than many other fuels. Ethanol has been used in cars since Henry Ford designed his 1908 Model T to operate on alcohol. In Brazil and the United States, the use of ethanol from sugar cane and grain as car fuel has been promoted by government programs[11].The Brazilian ethanol program started as a way to reduce the reliance on oil imports, but it was soon realized that it had important environmental and social benefits[12]. The fully combusted products of ethanol are only carbon dioxide and water. For this reason, it is environmental friendly and has been used to fuel public buses in the US. However, pure ethanol attacks certain rubber and plastic materials and cannot be used in unmodified car engines[13].The alcohol-based alternative fuel that is blended with gasoline to produce a fuel with a higher octane rating and fewer harmful emissions than unblended gasoline. A mixture containing gasoline with at least 10% ethanol is known as gasohol. Specifically, gasoline with 10% ethanol content is known as E10. Another common gasohol variant is E15, which contains 15% ethanol and 85% gasoline. E15 is only appropriate for use in Flex Fuel vehicles or a very small percentage of the newest vehicles[14]. In addition, E85 is a term used for a mixture of 15% gasoline and 85% ethanol. E85 keeps the fuel system clean because it burns cleaner than regular gas or diesel and doesn't leave behind gummy deposits. Beginning with the model year 1999, a number of vehicles in the U.S. were manufactured so as to be able to run on E85 fuel without modification. These vehicles are often labeled dual fuel or flexible fuel vehicles, since they can automatically detect the type of fuel and change the engine's behavior to compensate for the different ways that they burn in the engine cylinders[15].The use of ethanol-diesel fuel blends is growing around the world, and are designed to provide renewable, cleaner burning fuel alternatives for off-road equipment, buses, semi-trucks and other vehicles that run on diesel fuel. With the addition of ethanol and other fuel additives to diesel, the characteristic black diesel smoke is eliminated and there are significant reductions in particulate matter, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxide emissions. It is also possible to use ethanol for cooking as a replacement for wood, charcoal, propane, or as a substitute for lighting fuels, such as kerosene[16].Brazil and the United States lead the industrial production of ethanol fuel, accounting together for 89% of the world's production in 2008. In comparison with the USA and Brazil, Europe ethanol for fuel production is still very modest. Brazil is the world's second largest producer of ethanol fuel and the world's largest exporter[17].BeverageSignificant volumes of ethanol are produced for the beverage and industrial markets from agricultural feedstock. Ethanol produced for these industries differs from ethanol for fuel only in its strength, which can vary between 96% and 99.9% and in its purity, depending on the end use. Beverage and drinks industry may be the best-known end-user of ethanol. It is used to make many kinds of spirits, such vodka, gin and anisette. High standards and processes are required for ethanal used in the production of spirit drinks.OthersThe ethanol used as an intermediary product by the chemical, pharmaceutical or cosmetics industry is in many cases of the highest and purest possible quality. These are premium markets due to the additional steps in the alcohol production process that are necessary to achieve the required purity. Same high standards and purity requirements apply in food industry, such as flavors and aromas extraction and concentrations, as well as paints and thermometers. Ethanol can be used in de-icer or anti-freeze to clear the car windscreen. It also is contained in perfumes, deodorants, and other cosmetics[18].
Ethanol is highly soluble in water and organic solvents, but poorly soluble in fats and oils. Ethanol itself is a good solvent, which is used in cosmetics, paints and tinctures[2]. Density of ethanol at 68 °F (20 °C) is 789 g/l. Pure ethanol is neutral (pH ~7). Most alcoholic beverages are more or less acidic.Ethanol/ethyl alcohol is highly flammable liquid, hygroscopic, and fully miscible in water. Ethanol is incompatible with a large number of chemicals such as strong oxidising agents, acids, alkali metals, ammonia, hydrazine, peroxides, sodium, acid anhydrides, calcium hypochlorite, chromyl chloride, nitrosyl perchlorate, bromine pentafluoride, perchloric acid, silver nitrate, mercuric nitrate, potassium tert-butoxide, magnesium perchlorate, acid chlorides, platinum, uranium hexafluoride, silver oxide, iodine heptafluoride, acetyl bromide, disulphuryl difluoride, acetyl chloride, permanganic acid, ruthenium (VIII) oxide, uranyl perchlorate, and potassium dioxide.

This chemical is included in Basic Chemicals - Alcohols. See more about what is Ethanol and Ethanol SDS information.

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