Aniline Market Dynamics Report – Recent Commodity Market Intelligence

I. Price Trends

1. Shandong Jinling: On May 26, 2026, Shandong Jinling reduced its aniline price by RMB 400/ton, with the latest ex-factory cash price set at RMB 10,200/ton.
2. Dongying Caijin Chemical: On May 26, 2026, Dongying Caijin Chemical lowered its aniline price by RMB 500/ton, with the current ex-factory cash price at RMB 10,000/ton and the bill-of-exchange (bank acceptance) price at RMB 10,100/ton.
3. Overall Market Trend: Aniline prices have recently exhibited a downward trend. For instance, in the Shandong market, the reference price stood at RMB 11,000/ton (cash basis) on May 19, but declined to RMB 10,200/ton (Shandong Jinling) and RMB 10,000/ton (Dongying Caijin Chemical), respectively, by May 26.

II. Supply-Demand Situation

1. Supply Side:
– Domestic aniline production facilities are operating stably; however, several producers face high inventory pressure, resulting in ample overall supply.
– In 2026, China’s aniline market is expected to see limited new capacity additions; nonetheless, the continued ramp-up of previously commissioned capacity continues to exert some pressure on the market.

2. Demand Side:
– Downstream users are primarily focusing on consuming existing raw material inventories, exhibiting weak procurement intent and thereby hindering aniline producers’ sales efforts.
– Key downstream products—such as MDI—are experiencing sluggish demand, impacted by the downturn in the real estate sector; consequently, demand from construction insulation and furniture applications has weakened, further dampening aniline demand.

III. Cost Factors

1. Benzene Price: As the primary feedstock for aniline, benzene price fluctuations directly affect aniline production costs. Although benzene prices have fluctuated recently, they remain relatively low overall, providing downward room for aniline pricing.
2. Other Costs: Energy, transportation, and other ancillary costs also influence aniline pricing, albeit to a lesser extent; these cost components have remained relatively stable recently and thus exert only limited impact on aniline prices.

IV. Analysis & Outlook

1. Short-Term Trend: Affected by pronounced supply-demand imbalance and weakening cost support, aniline prices are expected to remain under downward pressure in the near term.
2. Medium-Term Trend: As downstream demand gradually recovers and supply-side capacity undergoes rational adjustment, aniline prices are expected to stabilize and rebound moderately over the medium term. However, the magnitude of recovery will depend on the pace of downstream industry recovery and the timing and scale of new capacity releases.
3. Long-Term Trend: In the long run, aniline prices will be influenced by multiple factors including macroeconomic conditions, policy environment, and technological advancements. With the gradual global economic recovery and sustained development of the chemical industry, aniline prices are projected to exhibit a steady upward trajectory.

V. Forecast

1. Price Range: Aniline prices in China are forecasted to fluctuate within the range of RMB 8,000–10,000/ton in 2026. The specific price trajectory will be shaped by supply-demand dynamics, cost factors, policy developments, and other variables.
2. Supply-Demand Balance: In 2026, the supply-demand imbalance in China’s aniline market is expected to ease somewhat but will persist. Total annual output is projected at approximately 4.2 million tons, while demand is estimated at around 4.0 million tons, resulting in a modest supply surplus of ~200,000 tons. As outdated capacity is progressively phased out and enterprises adopt more rational investment strategies, the pace of capacity expansion will significantly slow. Meanwhile, under the impetus of pro-growth policies, downstream demand is anticipated to recover moderately.