Market Intelligence, Analysis, and Forecast for Sodium Bicarbonate (Baking Soda)

I. Market Intelligence
(A) Price Information
- Recent Quotations: From May 13–17, 2026, quotations for food-grade sodium bicarbonate varied across different total alkalinity specifications. On May 22, 2026, quotations differed significantly by region and brand—for example: Henan Kaijie Water Treatment Co., Ltd. (domestic, Zhengzhou City, Henan Province): RMB 1,500/ton; Suzhou Senfeida Chemical Co., Ltd. (domestic, Suzhou City, Jiangsu Province): RMB 2,300/ton; Jinan Jinhao Chemical Co., Ltd. (Haifa, Jinan City, Shandong Province): RMB 1,180/ton.
- Historical Price Trends: In 2023, the overall market price of baking soda rose steadily: the average market price at year-beginning was RMB 2,530/ton, rising to RMB 2,688/ton by year-end—a 6.25% increase. Price movements in 2023 exhibited volatility: a decline from early January to early June; consolidation from early June to late August; an uptrend from late August to early October; a post-National Day decline; another rise from October 7 to December 10; followed by consolidation through year-end. In 2025, the domestic weighted-average ex-factory price stood at RMB 1,670/ton, up 3.4% year-on-year from RMB 1,615/ton in 2024.

(B) Supply-Demand Situation
- Supply Side:
China’s sodium bicarbonate production capacity and output—along with operating rates—have continuously expanded, driven by sustained demand growth from downstream sectors including food, industrial applications, and animal feed. In 2022, China’s sodium bicarbonate output reached 2.83897 million tons, up 19.29% year-on-year; in 2025, national output totaled 2.845 million tons, representing a ~5.3% increase over 2024.
Sodium bicarbonate production capacity is concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and Central China, with Central China accounting for the largest share—50.37%.
As of 2025, China’s sodium bicarbonate active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) production capacity reached approximately 280,000 tons, with actual output around 245,000 tons, yielding a capacity utilization rate of roughly 87%.
- Demand Side:
Sodium bicarbonate is widely applied in food processing, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, environmental protection, and other fields. In food processing—as a food additive—its safety and health benefits are widely recognized. Rising bakery chain penetration, growing ready-to-eat meal adoption, and implementation of new national standards for infant formula have collectively driven robust, inelastic demand. In 2025, China’s edible sodium bicarbonate market size reached RMB 18.85 billion, up 4.7% year-on-year; it is projected to reach RMB 19.74 billion in 2026, again up 4.7%.
In the pharmaceutical sector—as a critical API—demand is steadily increasing, propelled by population aging and advances in healthcare infrastructure. In 2025, domestic sodium bicarbonate API sales volume is expected to reach 262,000 tons, up ~6.9% year-on-year.
In animal feed, sodium bicarbonate serves as an acid-base regulator and buffering agent, improving livestock digestive function. Rapid development of feed industries in countries such as Indonesia has unlocked substantial new demand.

(C) Import-Export Situation
- China primarily engages in export-oriented trade for sodium bicarbonate. From 2022 to 2024, annual imports exceeded 100,000 tons; in 2024, imports stood at 110,300 tons (down 0.1% year-on-year), valued at USD 41 million (down 2.4% year-on-year).
- Exports showed consistent growth: in 2024, exports totaled 791,000 tons (up 19.4% year-on-year), valued at USD 178 million (up 0.6% year-on-year). Sodium bicarbonate was exported to 137 countries and regions in 2024; the top seven destinations—South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Australia, Bangladesh, and Taiwan (China)—accounted for 63.52% of total export volume. In 2025, edible sodium bicarbonate exports amounted to 82,000 tons, up 5.1% year-on-year, primarily destined for Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.

(D) Industry Structure
- The Chinese sodium bicarbonate industry exhibits high concentration, characterized by a “one-dominant, multiple-strong” structure. Inner Mongolia Boyuan Chemical ranks first with an annual sodium bicarbonate capacity of 1.5 million tons. Other major players include Tianjin Bohua Yongli, Henan Jindadi, Qingdao Alkali Industry, and Lianyungang Alkali Industry.
- Concentration in the sodium bicarbonate API segment continues to rise: in 2025, the top five producers—including Shandong Haifa, Jiangsu Jingshen, Zhongyan Kunshan, Hubei Shuanghuan, and Hebei Chengxin—collectively held ~62% of market share, predominantly located in East and North China.

II. Analysis and Assessment
(A) Price Determinants
- Cost Factors: Fluctuations in upstream soda ash (sodium carbonate) prices significantly influence sodium bicarbonate pricing. In 2025, the average price of upstream sodium carbonate rose 5.2% year-on-year, contributing to upward pressure on sodium bicarbonate prices. Meanwhile, tightening energy and environmental regulations increased enterprises’ energy consumption and wastewater/gas treatment costs by 8–12% on average, further supporting price levels.
- Supply-Demand Factors: Sustained demand growth from downstream food, pharmaceutical, and feed sectors—particularly emerging applications—exerts upward pricing pressure. On the supply side, although capacity expansion continues, capacity utilization remains stable; overall supply-demand balance is relatively maintained, though localized or temporary supply shortages may occur.
- Policy Factors: National industrial policies promote greener, smarter, and higher-value development across the chemical industry. Stricter environmental regulations impose higher requirements on production technologies and pollution control facilities, raising operational costs—and consequently influencing pricing. Additionally, API-specific regulatory frameworks—including linked review systems and dynamic GMP inspections—raise industry entry barriers, exerting upward pressure on pharmaceutical-grade sodium bicarbonate pricing.

(B) Competitive Landscape
- Intense competition exists between domestic and international firms. Domestic enterprises leverage cost advantages and policy support to secure significant shares in mid-to-low-end markets; however, they lag behind global leaders in technological sophistication and brand recognition. International leaders maintain dominance in premium segments via advanced production technologies, stringent quality control systems, and comprehensive distribution networks.
- Competition among domestic enterprises is also intense: leading firms reinforce their positions through economies of scale, technological leadership, and vertical integration, while SMEs pursue differentiation strategies targeting niche application scenarios for competitive differentiation.

III. Forecast
(A) Price Outlook
- Short-term: Supported by upstream cost pressures and balanced supply-demand fundamentals, sodium bicarbonate prices are likely to remain relatively stable or experience modest fluctuations. With continued cost pass-through and steady downstream demand growth, limited upside potential exists—but price increases are expected to be moderate.
- Long-term: Technological progress and economies of scale may gradually reduce production costs; however, stricter environmental compliance requirements will concurrently elevate operational expenditures. Overall, prices are expected to fluctuate within a rational, relatively stable range.

(B) Supply-Demand Outlook
- Supply Side: Enterprises will continue expanding capacity and enhancing production efficiency and product quality to meet growing market demand. Furthermore, wider adoption of intelligent and green manufacturing technologies will further strengthen supply capabilities.
- Demand Side: Downstream sectors—including food, pharmaceuticals, and animal feed—will continue developing, sustaining demand growth for sodium bicarbonate. Particularly in emerging markets, rising health awareness and rapid pharmaceutical industry expansion will significantly boost demand for sodium bicarbonate API.

(C) Industry Trend Outlook
- Green Development: Enterprises will place greater emphasis on R&D and deployment of green production technologies—such as clean production methods and circular economy models—to reduce energy consumption and emissions and improve resource utilization efficiency.
- Intelligent Development: Artificial intelligence, big data, and IoT technologies will be widely adopted across the sodium bicarbonate industry, enabling automated process control and intelligent management—thereby enhancing productivity, product quality, and cost efficiency.
- High-End Development: Enterprises will intensify R&D investment to launch high-performance, high-value-added sodium bicarbonate products—including novel formulations and ultra-high-purity grades—to satisfy growing market demand for premium offerings.
- International Development: As domestic enterprises enhance technical capabilities and product quality—and with the advancement of the Belt and Road Initiative—Chinese sodium bicarbonate manufacturers will proactively expand into overseas markets and increase their global market share.