Market Intelligence Report on Di-Octyl Phthalate (DOP)

I. Price Trends
- Recent Quotation: As of May 26, 2026, Shandong Xima Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. quoted DOP (99% purity, premium grade) at RMB 7,000 per metric ton (ex-factory price, delivery point: Zibo City, Shandong Province).
- Price Fluctuations:
- On May 18, the spot quotation stood at RMB 9,517.5/ton, down RMB 191.67/ton (–1.97%) from the previous day; down RMB 525/ton (–5.23%) week-on-week; and down RMB 766.67/ton (–7.45%) month-on-month.
- On May 20, the spot quotation in the East China region was RMB 9,475/ton, down RMB 16.67/ton (–0.18%) from the prior day; down RMB 233.33/ton (–2.40%) week-on-week; and down RMB 750/ton (–7.33%) month-on-month.
- On May 22, the spot quotation was RMB 9,392.5/ton, unchanged from the previous day; down RMB 316.67/ton (–3.26%) week-on-week; and down RMB 840.83/ton (–8.22%) month-on-month.

II. Regional Price Disparities
- Shandong Province Prices (as of May 11, 2026):
- Jinan City: Qilu-brand DOP (200 kg/drum, national standard purity 99.8%) — market price RMB 9,600/ton; Qilu plasticizer DOP (99% purity) — market price RMB 9,000/ton; Qilu Lanfan DOP (200 kg/drum, national standard first-grade) — market price RMB 7,000/ton.
- Weifang City: Domestic DOP (99% purity) — market price RMB 7,200/ton; Shandong-produced DOP (99.9% purity) — market price RMB 7,800/ton.
- Other Regions: Domestic DOP (99% purity) — market price RMB 6,900/ton; Shandong-produced DOP (99.9% purity) — market price RMB 11,800/ton.

III. Supply-Demand Analysis
- Supply Side:
- China’s total DOP production capacity is approximately 3.5 million tons annually, with actual operating rates maintained between 65% and 75%. Industry concentration is gradually increasing, with the top ten producers collectively accounting for over 60% of total capacity.
- Key producers include Shandong Hongxin, Jiangsu Jiantao, and Zhejiang Jia’ao, which are consolidating their market positions through integrated operations and technological upgrades.
- Demand Side:
- DOP is primarily used in PVC flexible products—including wire & cable sheathing, synthetic leather, flooring materials, films, and hoses—accounting for over 80% of total consumption.
- Stricter environmental regulations and China’s “dual carbon” goals (carbon peak and carbon neutrality) have led to stable or slightly declining demand in certain downstream sectors (e.g., synthetic leather and flooring), while demand remains steady in PVC film and wire & cable applications.

IV. Policy & Industry Trends
- Environmental Regulations:
- Phthalate esters—including DOP—have been designated as priority-controlled substances by the Chinese government, with stringent restrictions imposed on their production, use, import/export, and emissions, accelerating the industry’s green and low-carbon transformation.
- Enterprises are reducing environmental impact via optimized esterification catalysts and upgraded wastewater recycling technologies; some companies have reduced comprehensive energy consumption per unit output by over 12%.
- Competitive Substitutes:
- Non-phthalate alternatives such as di-octyl terephthalate (DOTP) overlap significantly with DOP in downstream applications, intensifying competitive pressure. Over the next two years, DOP capacity is expected to increase modestly, yet output is projected to remain flat, with operating rates sustained at approximately 50–60%.

V. Analysis & Outlook
1. Short-Term Price Trend:
- Recent continuous price declines stem primarily from loose supply-demand conditions, falling raw material costs, and mounting environmental compliance pressure. Prices are expected to remain weak in the near term, though the pace of decline may moderate.
2. Medium- to Long-Term Outlook:
- Supported by cost advantages and mature manufacturing processes, DOP will retain a significant share in the mid-to-low-end plasticizer market. Meanwhile, the proportion of eco-friendly variants—including low-volatility and high-migration-resistance modified DOP—will steadily rise.
- Domestic DOP consumption is projected to stabilize between 2.5 and 2.7 million tons annually by 2030. Industry development will focus on green manufacturing, refined operational management, and high-value-added product innovation.
3. Risk Alerts:
- Close attention should be paid to price volatility in key feedstocks—namely phthalic anhydride and 2-ethylhexanol—and to potential supply-side disruptions arising from further tightening of environmental policies.